Global Strategy Outlook

Global Strategy Outlook - Articles & White Papers

Our Global Strategy Outlook section contains articles, white papers and investment research for multi-asset managers focusing on the global markets outlook for asset allocators. Some of the papers in this section focus on structural and cyclical factors, for instance: how demographics impact financial markets, assessing the impact of the baby boomer generation on equities, fixed income and property prices, capital market return assumptions (perhaps 5-year or 10-year return forecasts for major asset classes), and an historic overview of "profit share" in the economy (are we in a "profits bubble"?). Most of the investment research in this section, however, is short-term in nature, seeking to explain and forecast market moves and trends, particularly for those with a global macro or TAA brief. From the regular monthly and quarterly investment reports we feature, perhaps the most popular are JP Morgan's Quarterly Guide to the Markets, Quarterly Investment Outlooks from Standard Life and Allianz, and monthly investment outlooks from LGIM and Pictet.
  • Bank for International Settlements

    Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends (BIS, 2017)

    Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power of private sector trade unions; increasing inequality ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2348
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  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    The catch is that five years is a very long time. Everyone knows this from personal experience, of course, but it is often forgotten when it comes to financial markets and economic trends. The here and now is the main focus. The purpose of the warning is simple: ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1470
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  • BlackRock

    Capital Market Assumptions (BlackRock, 2017)

    The BlackRock Investment Institute publishes capital market assumptions every quarter. We cover two time horizons: long-term equilibrium capital markets assumptions that can be used as key inputs for strategic asset allocation, and five-year assumptions that take into account how we think current economic and market conditions will play out in the medium term.

  • Credit Suisse

    Supertrends - Investing for the Long Term (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This 97-page report has been produced by Credit Suisse. It analyses the key trends affecting long-term investing, such as geopolitics, demographic shifts, and rapid technology change. These movements provide a tangible link between today’s major developments and portfolios' risk/return profiles in the long run.

    • Professional
    • Views: 1950
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  • World’s largest hedge fund chief: The economy looks grim in the long-term (May 2017)

    In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1767
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  • JP Morgan - Asset Management

    2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan)

    This edition of JP Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions is written against a backdrop of low investment return expectations, slow global growth and unprecedented monetary policy decisions. The paper considers the long-term impact of the structural factors affecting economies today on a 10 - 15 year investment horizon. 

    The detailed 90 page document ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1474
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  • PineBridge Investments

    The Shift to Reflation: Assessing the Impact to Portfolios (PineBridge)

    What worked well from an asset allocation perspective during the stall-speed regime is unlikely to offer strong risk-adjusted return moving forward. While academics have demonstrated that asset classes tend to maintain generally consistent Sharpe ratios over long periods, these averages may not hold true under different market regimes, which can, at times, span over several cycles. ...

  • PineBridge Investments

    2017 Mid-Year Outlook: Great Expectations for Global Growth (PineBridge, June 2017)

    We have seen some surprises in global markets and economies thus far in 2017. The biggest risk to global growth – political risk in Europe – has largely been defanged, but political risk in the US and Latin America is gaining strength. Economies in China and Europe have also surprised on the upside, spurring expectations for more synchronized growth among developed ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1068
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  • Schroders

    Long-run asset class performance: 30yr return forecasts (2017-46) Schroders

    Schroders Economics Group produces 30-year return forecasts, on an annual basis, for a range of asset classes. Here they outline the methodology used, which is based on a series of building blocks and estimates of risk premia, and surmise the key conclusions from our analysis. For the first time, this year they are also publishing a wider range of country-specific returns for ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2161
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  • QMA (Quantitative Management Associates)

    Some Like It Hot: Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Role of Real Assets (QMA, March 2017)

    Of all the variables the new administration brings for investors one of the trickiest to plan for is inflation. Inflationary pressures were already building before the election ushered in the prospect of a sweeping agenda of pro-growth fiscal and de-regulatory policies. One common way to hedge against inflation is to diversify portfolios with exposure to real assets – ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1118
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  • Credit Suisse

    Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2017

    This excellent 59-page document from Credit Suisse considers topical themes (particularly recent monetary policy) within the context of long-run global asset returns. The document contains data for 26 countries and regions going back to 1900. It's a detailed, must read report.

    • Professional
    • Views: 1228
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  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    BNP Paribas Investment Outlook 2017: Beyond the shadow of quantitative easing

    BNP Paribas Investment Partners presents its latest views and expectations. This outlook is designed to help investors prepare for 2017 by setting the scene for a year in which a new landscape awaits: the world's largest economy is coming under new leadership and leading central banks are expected to gear up for either policy tightening ─ specifically in the US ─ or ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1401
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  • T. Rowe Price

    Global Equities: The Changing Face of Value (T. Rowe Price, Nov 2016)

    For many value investors, the last few years have proved to be a challenging period given a backdrop of low growth, structural change in China, elevated macroeconomic risks, and bouts of volatility. This environment has led to a dominance of growth and quality factors, creating a meaningful headwind for value-oriented stocks.

    • Professional
    • Views: 1109
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  • GMO

    Market Macro Myths: Debts, Deficits and Delusions (James Montier, Jan 2016)

    • 04 Feb 2016
    • Company: GMO

    This paper by James Montier focuses on the concept of "sound finance" in the context of the role played by debts and deficits in overall economic policy. Montier believes that budget deficits shouldn't be avoided if they help policymakers achieve the two main goals of macroeconomic policy, namely price stability and full employment. He seeks to show why the advocates ...

  • Society of Actuaries

    Future Equity Patterns and Baby Boomer Retirements (SOA, 2015)

    How will changing demographics impact asset prices? This is an important question for long-term investors. This excellent paper from the Society of Actuaries reviews the evidence from sixty different papers and covers asset classes from equities, fixed income and property. The general consensus appears to be that the retirement of the baby boomer generation ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1135
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  • Fidelity International

    Investment Outlook Q4 2017: Braver for longer (Fidelity International)

    This paper provides Fidelity International's outlook for global equities, bonds, and alternatives. The authors believe that the bull market is still intact but is now in its last phase. Solid global growth and robust earnings growth are supporting stocks. However, pockets of rich valuations are becoming a concern in a range of asset classes.

  • Fidelity International

    The Draghi Put: Five years in Five Charts (Fidelity International, 2017)

    Sometimes, a very short sentence can have an enormous effect on financial markets, especially if the person speaking is ECB president Mario Draghi and it is the height of the eurozone crisis. Draghi gave markets an iconic show of commitment and political will. But what did it take, and has it worked? Fidelity offers five charts which summarise the progress of the last five years, ...

  • Deutsche Asset Management

    CIO View: Quarterly Investment Outlook (Deutsche Asset Management, July 2017)

    During the first half of 2017, central banks have continued to be accommodating and, for the first time in years, we can expect a simultaneous pickup in both the emerging and advanced economies. Deutsche Asset Management CIO, Stefan Kreuzkamp, examines the prospect of a "Goldilocks" economy and discuss the impact on fixed income and equity markets. He also ...

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