Investment Megatrends 2019

Megatrends: the secular trends shaping the market outlook

Economic cycles may come and go, but secular trends are inescapable and can impact investment markets for decades. In the list below, we've identified some of the largest, most pervasive, secular trends in the global markets - what we'd like to call the Investment Megatrends of 2019. 

Without further ado, here is a selection of the top whitepapers on our 2019 Investment Megatrends: Politics and Populism; Climate Change and the Energy Transition; The Demographic Revolution;  Technology, Automation, and AI; and The Emergence of China.

Looking Forward, Looking Back: 10 Charts After 10 Years (AB, Mar 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in North America and South America

The 10 charts presented here show just how much global financial markets have changed in the past decade, while graphically depicting megatrends like the rise of populism, energy supply dynamics, ESG, and the increase in global debt levels.

Five things you should know about trends investing (Robeco, Mar 2019)

This Robeco paper describes three of the most powerful megatrends shaping the world today, the influence of behavioral biases on trend analysis, and how to select the structural winners from trend-related opportunities.

Inescapable investment "truths" for the decade ahead (Schroders, Mar 2019)

Schroders discusses the economic drivers and disruptive forces (of a demographic, environmental, political, and technological nature) that could shape the investment landscape in the next 10 years.

Politics and Populism

CIO View: Politics and Populism - History stages a comeback (DWS AM blog, Mar 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom

The present day represents a new historical paradigm, in which political uncertainty, ideological clashes, and turmoil are the new norm. Not all political surprises are negative, but investors should be prepared to weather these increasingly uncertain times.

Populist, nationalist movements are on the rise: What could this mean for the global economy? (Invesco US, Feb 2019)

Invesco describes three specific dangers of populist, nationalist movements, yet remains positive about the outlook for 2019, largely due to the supportive nature of central banks when confronted with geopolitical instability.

Populism Revisited: Expect More Twists and Turns Ahead (AB, Jan 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in North America and South America

The authors update their original post-Brexit research on populist agendas, finding that the movement is alive and well, and investors should expect more populist policies in the years ahead.

Climate Change and the Energy Transition

Energy Transition and Global Infrastructure (UBS AM, Oct 2018)

Cost reduction for renewables, the onset of EVs and cheaper batteries, awareness of issues affecting the environment, and shale fracking in the U.S. are all forces within the energy industry that could impact infrastructure investments.

An Investor Framework for Addressing the Impact of Climate Change (Callan, 2018)

In this paper, Callan's Anna West (Senior VP and ESG Practice Leader) lays out the major considerations for long-term investors in regards to climate change. She identifies solutions and areas of progress for those who are seeking to address climate-related risks.

Navigating climate scenario analysis: A guide for institutional investors (IIGCC, 2018)

This 60-page guide by the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change aims to serve as a ‘how-to guide’ for institutional investors who are beginning to construct and conduct climate change-related scenario analysis.

How and Why to Invest in a Climate Change Strategy (White & Grantham, GMO, 2019)

Climate change strategies can provide diversification, protection form climate risk, inflation protection, and other benefits, but how should a climate change strategy be positioned within a broader investment portfolio?

The Demographic Revolution

Video - The Long View: Debt and Demographics (AB, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in North America and South America

This is part 1 of a 4-part video series. Countries and companies have been on a borrowing binge even as the growth of the working-age population in many parts of the world slows. Is a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in our future?

Podcast: How to survive the demographics revolution (Fidelity Intl, Oct 2018)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Significant demographic shifts are taking place across the globe. Some populations are growing older, while others are benefitting from a younger populace. How will this affect global corporations, societal shifts, and institutional investors?

ECB Monetary Policy Confronts Aging Demographics and Elusive Inflation (PIMCO, Mar 2019)

Is Europe easing its way into a liquidity trap? PIMCO looks at European demographics and its links to inflation expectations, as well as whether the ECB is likely to achieve its inflation target.

Demographics, Inflation and Asset Prices (Goldman Sachs AM, 2018)

The authors of this report describe the ways in which demographics and inflation relate to asset prices, presenting their own demography-based predictions for major economies.

The enduring link between demography and inflation (BIS, 2018)

This BIS paper examines the level of influence that demographic trends such as population ageing have upon global inflation expectations, finding evidence that a strong relationship exists.

Technology, Automation, and AI

Three Technology Titans Reshaping Retails: Alibaba, Amazon, and Mercadolibre (Franklin Templeton, Feb 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Franklin Templeton describes how three disruptive organizations are digitizing retail markets across the globe.

Artificial Intelligence: Real opportunity (Franklin Templeton, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

In a world where AI is ever-present, and computing power is a commodity, data will become the real differentiating factor, and companies with proprietary datasets will win out in the long-run.

The Emergence of China

China's Century? The Economic Giant's Next Act (Franklin Templeton, Mar 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

China is at a critical inflection point. There is increased potential for market volatility due to the many challenges the country faces. Growth could slow further due to de-risking activities. But the overall outlook remains positive, as today's reforms should serve to buttress tomorrow's Chinese economy.

How China is driving the global economy and creating opportunities (UBS AM, Jan 2019)

Thematic trends are fostering growth in China and across the world, while also creating opportunities for long-term investors.