Commodity Markets Outlook

Commodity Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers

Professional research, academic articles and white papers on the outlook for commodity markets - including the outlook for gold, the precious metals outlook, the outlook for soft commodities, the outlook for the oil price and energy price forecasts. This section includes not just analysis of commodity markets but also research on practical and theoretical issues relating to commodities, for example, research on the history of real commodity prices in the long run and on commodity super-cycles with more than a century of data. In this section there are links to academic studies that every commodity investor should read. Papers cover alternative beta strategies in commodities, value and momentum in commodities, the fundamentals of returns in the commodity futures markets, alpha generation in commodities markets and on seasonal effects in commodity forwards - some truly fascinating research for anyone investing in the commodity asset class. The most recent commodity super-cycle, brilliantly flagged by Jim Rogers, saw the fictionalisation of commodities, with index investment in commodities becoming a new option for asset allocators. This section also holds some great, periodic reports on the commodities complex. Judith Ganes-Chase's monthly report "hard facts on soft commodities" is the best in its field. Deloitte occasionally produce a great paper, such as the one on Iran's return to world oil markets, while OPEC's monthly oil market report has some great detail.
  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    Robeco strategists aim not to give an accurate, detailed account of what will happen the next five years: they do not profess to know that. They present the broader trends, the averages. This publication includes special topics on secular stagnation; the ...

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  • 2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (ExxonMobil)

    This document is ExxonMobil’s global view of energy demand and supply through 2040. We use the data and findings in the book to help guide our long-term investments. It also highlights the dual challenge of ensuring the world has access to affordable and reliable energy supplies while reducing emissions to address the risk of climate change. We share the Outlook with the ...

  • CAIA - Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association

    Alternative Beta Strategies in Commodities

    In recent years, investors have become increasingly aware that systematic risk factors explain a large part of portfolio returns. Alternative beta strategies may be used to reduce risk, or to enhance returns through exposure to systematic factors. In this paper, the authors explore both risk-based and factor-based alternative beta indices for commodities, focusing particularly on ...

  • National Bureau of Economic Research

    From boom to bust: A typology of real commodity prices in the long run

    Real commodity prices are examined in this paper. The study covers 30 commodities over a 160-year period. The commodities in question represent a total production of USD 7.9 trillion-worth in 2011. The paper documents and aims to completely classify real commodities prices, including trends over the long-run, as well as cycles in the medium-run, showing short-run patterns of booms ...

  • The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns

    The risk premium associated with commodity futures will vary over time and across commodities, depending on the level of physical inventories. A number of issues reflect the true state of inventories: price measures, prior spot returns, price futures returns and spot price volatilities. The authors check these predictions using a detailed dataset on thirty-one commodity futures and ...

  • Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century

    There are two main aims of this paper. The first is to recognize and compare super-cycles occurring successively in real commodity prices, while the second is to provide in-depth views on the recent cycle of commodity prices on a long-run basis, done by examining how global changes in output levels relate to commodity prices cycles.

  • Standard Chartered Bank

    Global Market Outlook (Standard Chartered Bank, Sept 2017)

    Any equity market pullback in the coming months is likely to be limited in size and length. Near-term technical indicators are soft and event risks loom, but fundamentals remain strong. We expect a gradual pivot to reflation where growth remains robust and inflation pressures rise slowly. We prefer Euro area and Asia ex-Japan markets. We prefer a balanced multi-asset strategy that ...

  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    Intelligence Report: A positive view of the correlation in cyclical commodities (BNP Paribas, March 2017)

    A bi-weekly flagship publication for institutional investors. The first section of this issue considers the intertwined themes of reflation and the impact of Trumponomics on global markets, especially commodity prices, and oil in particular. The second section considers the outlook for healthcare investing.

  • Citi

    2017 Investment Themes: A Wind of Change (Citi)

    • 17 Jan 2017
    • Company: Citi

    A wind of change is sweeping through politics, economics and markets and it threatens to bring with it a new direction for economies and financial markets. Three core themes are evident in this new dawn: rising Vox Populi risk, increased headwinds to globalization trends and a transition in the policy landscape. This paper examines the global investment and economic outlook for the ...

  • KKR

    Outlook for 2017: Paradigm Shift (KKR)

    • 12 Jan 2017
    • Company: KKR

    In this KKR paper, the authors state that Donald Trump's ascendancy to the Presidency of the United States is confirmation of a political and economic paradigm shift that started with Brexit but is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, including elections across Europe in 2017. They discuss four major potentially secular changes that all investment professionals must ...

  • Precious Metals Outlook for 2017: Better Times Ahead (Commerzbank)

    After strong gains in the first half of the year, the gold price has come under pressure in the fourth quarter. We expect the upward trend to resume in 2017. The headwind from US dollar appreciation and the rise of bond yields should abate and investment demand should pick up again also given the numerous risk factors. Furthermore, the only modest gold demand in Asia this year ...

  • Facts and Fantasies About Commodity Futures Ten Years Later (2015)

    This paper is a follow-up from a paper written Gorton and Rouwenhorst in 2006 where, using data from July 1959 to December 2004, they examined commodity futures returns based on an equally-weighted index. Reviewing their conclusions ten years later, they find that their conclusions out-of-sample, largely hold up.

  • Blackstone Group

    The Ten Surprises of 2016 (Byron Wien, Jan 2016)

    Here they are! Byron Wien's ten "surprises" of 2016. Byron is something of an institution in his own right. He first listed his "10 surprises" in 1986, when he was Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Strategist. As usual, these "surprises" were formed after deep discussion with George Soros and other leading thinkers. Enjoy, or disagree!

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