The Commodity Outlook in an era of Energy Transition
Given recent innovations in battery technology, the falling cost of solar power, the rise of electric vehicles, and the ability of shale fracking techniques to release vast amounts of previously trapped and untapped oil and gas resources, what does the future hold for the global energy industry at a time of transition?
In the series of papers listed below, we explore several themes. Alongside the great energy transition, we present the outlook for metals, corn, and other commodities, as well as a foray into the behaviour of commodity prices in inflationary environments and other natural resources investments.
THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager, Scott Elliott, examines prior transitions in the global energy economy in order to shed light upon current energy-related scenarios and their investment implications.
Cost reduction for renewables, the onset of EVs and cheaper batteries, awareness of issues affecting the environment, and shale fracking in the U.S. are all forces within the energy industry that could impact infrastructure investments.
A structural shift is taking place, as the energy industry moves away nuclear power and coal, towards natural gas and renewable energy. But what types of related financing needs can be satisfied by investors in infrastructure?
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada
The disruptive change of the ‘shale revolution’ has forced existing producers to adapt while reducing OPEC’s pricing power. We expect further far-reaching changes to take effect in the coming years.
This 29-page report by Deloitte delves into the world of global renewable energy and examines industry trends, particularly the rise of solar and wind.
This collaborative report describes the opportunity set for renewable energy infrastructure investments for UK pension funds, both within the UK and in emerging market countries.
THE OUTLOOK FOR COMMODITIES
In this natural resources and commodities outlook, Investec Asset Management shares insight about natural resources M&A activity as well as the outlook for oil, natural gas, iron ore, nickel, precious metals, corn, and potash.
From the US Energy Information Administration, a monthly assessment of energy markets. This is the latest in a regular series of monthly reports.
What impact will innovative technology and the shale revolution have upon the commodity outlook in producer nations like Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, the UAE, and Venezuela?
The macroeconomic environment may have turned positive for commodities, with global growth rising, rising inflation, and signs of a later-stage business cycle. Cohen & Steers looks at metals and agriculture in detail.
THE BEHAVIOUR OF COMMODITY PRICES
Unexpectedly high inflation is harmful for most asset classes, except for commodities, which strengthens the case for a commodities allocation in well diversified portfolios.
Due to positive carry and other reasons commodity futures returns have been positive in the long run. They have also been strong during periods of inflationary shocks. This paper argues in favor of commodities as a strategic allocation.
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Customary safe havens may no longer provide adequate downside protection in today's market environment. Instead, defensive equity positions in the energy sector may provide a unique conduit for downside protection.
INVESTING IN NATURAL RESOURCES
Preqin examines natural resources PE funds and the fundraising environment as of Q3 2018. After a large influx of capital secured, energy funds are leading other strategies in capital raised.
The authors look at private investments in natural resources, describing the market and various investment issues.