Insights you might have missed last week

Retraining workers, Japan, and stopping this train

Explore this selection of high-quality insights that you may have missed last week, from top global asset managers and institutions.

The AI Bubble and the U.S. Economy (INET)

This paper argues that we have reached “peak GenAI” in terms of current Large Language Models (LLMs) and the AI-LLM industry and the larger U.S. economy are experiencing a speculative bubble, which is about to burst.

How Retrainable Are AI-Exposed Workers? (FRBNY)

The authors of this paper use earnings records observed before and after training and compare high AI exposure trainees to a matched sample of similar workers who only received job search assistance.

Outlook for Japan (Apollo)

Corporate profits are trending higher, growth is expected to accelerate over the next 12 months, and inflation is expected to decline from its current elevated levels.

Nvidia's Great Revenue Fabrication Scheme (Just Dario)

OpenAI and Nvidia increasingly appear tied. On one side, a private company valued at several hundred billion dollars but running out of cash. On the other, the most valuable company in the world fighting to keep its house of cards standing.

Seeking Balance in EU Securitisation (PGIM)

This blog provides an update on PGIM's latest policy engagement at Eurofi in Copenhagen, which centered on the steps needed to revive the European securitization market.

Why Maximum Diversification Is Better than Minimum Risk (Journal of Asset Management)

The authors of this paper show that the maximum diversification strategies are highly competitive, if not generally superior, to the risk minimization allocations.

Lyn Alden: What Will Stop This Train? (Macro Voices)

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Lyn Alden to discuss: the evolution of public debt, the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status, long-term debt, institutional changes & the fourth turning, and more.

Credit Markets Hold Firm Despite Shutdown (Nuveen)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Credit markets hold firm despite shutdown, with the 10-year yield ending 2 basis points lower at 4.08%.