Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers

White papers and articles on the outlook for emerging markets. The research in this section includes reports into the short-term outlook for emerging market economies, and also papers on theoretical and educational themes relating to EM investing. Our white papers on emerging markets answer questions such as: Does the Shiller PE (CAPE) work in emerging equity markets? How does quantitative easing impact emerging markets? Do factor models work in emerging markets? Does GDP growth drive EM equity returns? Other popular papers on EM education include "an introduction to the frontier markets" and "the case of emerging market currencies in the long-run." In terms of periodic reports on EM outlook, perhaps the most popular research in this section is written by JP Morgan, Templeton (Mark Mobius), KKR and Goldman Sachs. Recently, of course, analysis of China's renminbi devaluation has been very popular, in particular the effect of devaluation on other emerging markets. Other research in this category examines EM real estate, EM venture capital, EM private equity, EM debt and EM infrastructure, with much research on the BRICS nations (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa) as well as other leading LATAM and MINT economies.
  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    Robeco strategists aim not to give an accurate, detailed account of what will happen the next five years: they do not profess to know that. They present the broader trends, the averages. This publication includes special topics on secular stagnation; the ...

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  • Eaton Vance Management International

    Emerging Markets Local Income (EMLI) strategy: Casting the widest net in emerging-markets debt (Eaton Vance)

    In 2017, investors rediscovered their enthusiasm for emerging-markets (EM) local currency debt. With a yield in excess of 6% on the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified in 2017 as of 30 September, EM local currency debt has been the highest yielding of the major global fixed-income sectors. Total return in US dollars over the same ...

  • Barings

    EM Local Debt: Focused on Fundamentals (Barings, Feb 2018)

    Barings' combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis and tools provide a comprehensive and rigorous framework for investing in emerging markets local debt. In this Viewpoint, we give readers an inside look into our investment process.

  • State Street Global Advisors

    2018 Global Market Outlook (SSGA)

    Global growth is now more evenly distributed (and expected to return to its historical trend rate of 3.7%), inflation remains (so far) muted, and the coming year should be supportive for risk assets. SSGA's Global Market Outlook discusses these key themes for 2018, and how the current macroeconomical and geopolitical backdrop ought to shape portfolio positioning going forward ...

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  • FTSE Russell

    Capturing the Chinese A-shares and H-shares Anomaly (FTSE Russell, 2016)

    The Chinese equity market is composed of a domestic and an offshore market. The existence of the domestic A-share and the offshore H-share markets provides a choice for a Chinese company to choose its listing venue where the stock could be dually-listed on both markets. As the restrictions to invest in the China market are easing, investors are looking for a variety of tools to ...

  • Franklin Templeton Investments

    Opportunities in Emerging-Market Local Currency Bonds (Franklin Templeton, May 2018)

    As the emerging-market debt asset class continues to evolve and expand, investors are increasingly looking for strategies that are dedicated to the segment of the market denominated in local (i.e., domestic) currencies versus hard/external currencies [i.e., the US dollar (USD) or euro]. Rationales range from diversification benefits and inflation hedges to reducing external debt ...

  • Invesco (Europe)

    Risk & Reward Q1 2018 (Invesco)

    This issue of Risk & Reward examines cryptotokens. Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies have capti-vated a large segment of the retail investment world in ways not seen since the dotcom bubble. It is undoubtedly a speculative bubble – yet most speculative bubbles have something real and potentially transformative underpinning them. We spoke to Chris Burniske, a partner at ...

  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    Local currency emerging market debt: deserving of a closer look (BNP Paribas AM, Apr 2018)

    Local currency debt has become one of the largest fixed-income universes over the past eight years, yet remains under-appreciated. We can see a number of triggers for a pick-up in demand. We believe growth is the main forward indicator for currencies. The asset class offers multiple opportunities, collating a heterogeneous group of bond issuers including countries in different ...

  • NN Investment Partners

    Reaping the Returns: 25 years of EMD investing (NNIP, 2018)

    NN Investment Partners’ Emerging Market Debt (EMD) Hard Currency (HC) strategy celebrates its 25-year anniversary this year. Over that time, the EMD opportunity set has evolved considerably. EMs have undergone dramatic economic improvement and today they present a compelling source of returns for all kinds of investors.

  • Lazard Asset Management

    Giving Credit Where It's Due: ESG Factors in EM Sovereign Debt (Lazard, 2018)

    Emerging markets investors are increasingly focused on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations when making investment decisions. Several studies, as well as demonstrated market behavior, show a clear correlation between a country’s bond performance and the strength of its institutions and governance. In this paper, we verify this relationship and go further to ...

  • Barings

    A New Dawn for Emerging Markets Equities (Barings, Feb 2018)

    EM equities are enjoying a strong rebound following five painful years of underperformance versus developed markets. In this piece, Barings’ portfolio managers explain why they are optimistic on the outlook for the asset class and which factors they believe will sustain performance going forward.

  • European Central Bank

    The transition of China to sustainable growth - implications for the global economy and the euro area (ECB, 2018)

    China’s rise has been the economic success story of the past four decades but economic growth has been slowing and domestic imbalances have widened. This paper by the European Central Bank analyses the recent evolution of China’s imbalances, the risks they pose to the economic outlook and the potential impact of a transition to sustainable growth in China on the global and euro ...

  • William Blair

    Why China A-Shares, Why Now? (William Blair, 2018)

    The domestic Chinese equity markets are some of the largest and most liquid in the world, and they offer unique investment opportunities—yet they have been largely neglected by institutional investors. That, in part, is because they were historically difficult for foreign investors to access. However, with the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect a few years ago and ...

  • William Blair

    Global Market Outlook for 2018: An End or a Beginning? (William Blair)

    2017 was a particularly strong year, with broad growth and low inflation creating an almost perfect environment for equity investors. Technology was a significant part of that story. Bitcoin reached $17,000, an increase of over 1,600% since January 1. China, which is transforming into one of the most innovative countries in the world, had one of the most interesting runs we have ...

  • FTSE Russell

    Preparing for China's inclusion in global benchmarks (FTSE Russell, Nov 2017)

    China continues to open its market to foreign investors at a significant pace, and it is increasingly likely that within two to three years China A-shares will become eligible for inclusion in FTSE Russell's global indexes. The FTSE Global China A Inclusion Indexes were launched to help provide a range of benchmark choices for portfolio transition for ...

  • FTSE Russell

    FTSE Russell China Bond Research Report

    With renminbi (RMB) internationalization remaining slow, the Bond Connect programme—which enables foreign institutional investors to trade securities on a Hong Kong exchange—showed boosted confidence in China’s short-term debt markets this past August. Learn how “more of the same” expectations influenced the recent trading spike, and why the ...

  • Eaton Vance Institutional

    Emerging-market debt: Navigating the allocation dilemma (Eaton Vance Institutional, Sept 2017)

    Positive fundamental changes in emerging markets over the past 10-15 years, along with robust economic growth and the proliferation of emerging-market debt (EMD) indices, have helped transform EMD into a mainstream asset class. Growing interest in EMD has led to increased resources dedicated to these assets and expanded access for investors, which, in turn, has added to the ...

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