Emerging Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers
White papers and articles on the outlook for emerging markets. The research in this section includes reports into the short-term outlook for emerging market economies, and also papers on theoretical and educational themes relating to EM investing. Our white papers on emerging markets answer questions such as: Does the Shiller PE (CAPE) work in emerging equity markets? How does... quantitative easing impact emerging markets? Do factor models work in emerging markets? Does GDP growth drive EM equity returns? Other popular papers on EM education include "an introduction to the frontier markets" and "the case of emerging market currencies in the long-run." In terms of periodic reports on EM outlook, perhaps the most popular research in this section is written by JP Morgan, Templeton (Mark Mobius), KKR and Goldman Sachs. Recently, of course, analysis of China's renminbi devaluation has been very popular, in particular the effect of devaluation on other emerging markets. Other research in this category examines EM real estate, EM venture capital, EM private equity, EM debt and EM infrastructure, with much research on the BRICS nations (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa) as well as other leading LATAM and MINT economies.
In this edition of Macro Quarterly, strategists at UBS AM review their core views on economic growth stabilization which they believe are being challenged as the US-China trade war has further escalated.
This paper by BNP Paribas AM examines where major markets such as China and India stand in their evolution. It also explores the scope for electric vehicles to develop in other global emerging markets.
China's businesses operate in a unique environment and understanding that matrix is imperative to those hoping to identify the best companies for investment. What are the most effective strategies for finding the winners and what are the warning signs of those to avoid?
This year’s survey includes a review of 2018 private capital activity (defined as private equity plus venture capital) in Asia Pacific, our thoughts on the major hiring trends for investment professionals, a deep dive into what 2019 compensation packages for investment professionals look like, and indications of how…
This monthly report by Actis delves into a range of emerging market themes. These include Vietnam (how it stands to benefit from the US-China trade war), Iran (how to better understand it), and Colombia (investment opportunities in the context of significant politics and economic challenges).
The confluence of the resounding victory of Prime Minister Modi and his pro-business vision for India, with the once-again escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have rekindled interest in India assuming the export-powerhouse baton from China and shifting up a gear in its long-term growth potential.
Nowadays, if investors acquire a German government bond with 10 years to maturity, their investment of 100 euros will shrink to less than 95 euros by the time it is repaid in 2029. This calculation does not yet take into account the loss of purchasing power. If inflation rates were on average 1% per year, the investment…
Investing in emerging market local bonds can incur extra transaction costs that reduce alpha generation over the common local market bond indices. PGIM Fixed Income shows how to mitigate or possibly eliminate these issues.
This 56-page report by SAVCA (the Southern African Venture Capital and Private Equity Association) provides an interesting and important look into recent market activity and trends in Southern African private equity.
The trade war between the U.S. and China has entered a dangerous new phase. As of September 1, Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping have imposed duties on more than half of the two countries’ trade in goods, with additional tariff measures to take effect by the end of the year. Based on simulations of the Moody’s Analytics model…
The dollar-denominated Asian corporate debt market has grown significantly in recent years. Now a key part of the EM fixed income universe, we believe Asia credit has never been more relevant to investors.
Jason Pride, CFA, CIO for Private Wealth and Thom Melcher, Managing Director, explore the potential paths the market may follow and discuss the implications and investment strategies for each possibility.
Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures inform…
Argentina’s currency and financial markets have experienced a sharp selloff in recent weeks. Emerging markets (EM) debt investment analyst and portfolio manager, Steve Backes, gives his take on why market sentiment has soured, whether capital controls will bring stability and the outlook for Argentina.
Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China. This webinar considers the leading indicators of recession, the potential timing of the downturn, its severity and length.
China’s economy is slowing and this can be seen at the company level as well. But despite the downbeat macro sentiment and further concerns over the trade spat with the US, some bright spots in recent company earnings reports suggest that discerning investors can still cherry-pick interesting opportunities.