Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers

White papers and articles on the outlook for emerging markets. The research in this section includes reports into the short-term outlook for emerging market economies, and also papers on theoretical and educational themes relating to EM investing. Our white papers on emerging markets answer questions such as: Does the Shiller PE (CAPE) work in emerging equity markets? How does quantitative easing impact emerging markets? Do factor models work in emerging markets? Does GDP growth drive EM equity returns? Other popular papers on EM education include "an introduction to the frontier markets" and "the case of emerging market currencies in the long-run." In terms of periodic reports on EM outlook, perhaps the most popular research in this section is written by JP Morgan, Templeton (Mark Mobius), KKR and Goldman Sachs. Recently, of course, analysis of China's renminbi devaluation has been very popular, in particular the effect of devaluation on other emerging markets. Other research in this category examines EM real estate, EM venture capital, EM private equity, EM debt and EM infrastructure, with much research on the BRICS nations (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa) as well as other leading LATAM and MINT economies.
  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    Robeco strategists aim not to give an accurate, detailed account of what will happen the next five years: they do not profess to know that. They present the broader trends, the averages. This publication includes special topics on secular stagnation; the ...

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  • Eaton Vance Management International

    Emerging Markets Local Income (EMLI) strategy: Casting the widest net in emerging-markets debt (Eaton Vance)

    In 2017, investors rediscovered their enthusiasm for emerging-markets (EM) local currency debt. With a yield in excess of 6% on the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified in 2017 as of 30 September, EM local currency debt has been the highest yielding of the major global fixed-income sectors. Total return in US dollars over the same ...

  • State Street Global Advisors

    2018 Global Market Outlook (SSGA)

    Global growth is now more evenly distributed (and expected to return to its historical trend rate of 3.7%), inflation remains (so far) muted, and the coming year should be supportive for risk assets. SSGA's Global Market Outlook discusses these key themes for 2018, and how the current macroeconomical and geopolitical backdrop ought to shape portfolio positioning going forward ...

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  • FTSE Russell

    Capturing the Chinese A-shares and H-shares Anomaly (FTSE Russell, 2016)

    The Chinese equity market is composed of a domestic and an offshore market. The existence of the domestic A-share and the offshore H-share markets provides a choice for a Chinese company to choose its listing venue where the stock could be dually-listed on both markets. As the restrictions to invest in the China market are easing, investors are looking for a variety of tools to ...

  • Barings

    A New Dawn for Emerging Markets Equities (Barings, Feb 2018)

    EM equities are enjoying a strong rebound following five painful years of underperformance versus developed markets. In this piece, Barings’ portfolio managers explain why they are optimistic on the outlook for the asset class and which factors they believe will sustain performance going forward.

  • William Blair

    Global Market Outlook for 2018: An End or a Beginning? (William Blair)

    2017 was a particularly strong year, with broad growth and low inflation creating an almost perfect environment for equity investors. Technology was a significant part of that story. Bitcoin reached $17,000, an increase of over 1,600% since January 1. China, which is transforming into one of the most innovative countries in the world, had one of the most interesting runs we have ...

  • FTSE Russell

    Preparing for China's inclusion in global benchmarks (FTSE Russell, Nov 2017)

    China continues to open its market to foreign investors at a significant pace, and it is increasingly likely that within two to three years China A-shares will become eligible for inclusion in FTSE Russell's global indexes. The FTSE Global China A Inclusion Indexes were launched to help provide a range of benchmark choices for portfolio transition for ...

  • FTSE Russell

    FTSE Russell China Bond Research Report

    With renminbi (RMB) internationalization remaining slow, the Bond Connect programme—which enables foreign institutional investors to trade securities on a Hong Kong exchange—showed boosted confidence in China’s short-term debt markets this past August. Learn how “more of the same” expectations influenced the recent trading spike, and why the ...

  • Eaton Vance Institutional

    Emerging-market debt: Navigating the allocation dilemma (Eaton Vance Institutional, Sept 2017)

    Positive fundamental changes in emerging markets over the past 10-15 years, along with robust economic growth and the proliferation of emerging-market debt (EMD) indices, have helped transform EMD into a mainstream asset class. Growing interest in EMD has led to increased resources dedicated to these assets and expanded access for investors, which, in turn, has added to the ...

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices

    Looking Beyond Traditional Benchmarks to Add Value in Emerging Markets (S&P Dow Jones Indices, July 2017)

    As emerging markets have grown in size and importance, emerging market equities have become a core part of many portfolio allocations. In addition, the increased diversity and liquidity of emerging equity markets have made strategies commonly used to manage developed market portfolios (such as tactical allocations across regions and size segments) much more accessible to emerging ...

  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    What makes Emerging Markets Fixed Income attractive – even under a Trump presidency? (BNP Paribas, Apr 2017)

    It has not gone unnoticed globally that Donald Trump is now in the White House of the United States of America. Love him or hate him, his Presidency and policies are likely to have implications that resonate around the world. As investors in Emerging Markets Fixed Income, the key question that we therefore currently have to address is how his plans may impact the emerging market ...

  • Aberdeen Asset Management

    Emerging markets debt: Here and beyond (Aberdeen AM, 2017)

    Although the US is embarking on a gradual path toward higher interest rates, low and even negative yields continue to proliferate across much of the developed world. As a result, fixed-income investors who normally stick close to home are searching far and wide to find ways of generating additional income in their portfolios.

    Click on the relevant link below to read the ...

  • FTSE Russell

    China through the mosaic of its share classes (FTSE Russell)

    China’s share classes represent the arc of the country’s transformation from a dormant agrarian society to bustling centre of global commerce. Each new share class has marked both an increased openness and often a new phase in China’s economic development. Read FTSE Russell’s latest research to gain deeper insights about the Chinese equity market.

  • Lazard Asset Management

    Factor Performance in Emerging Markets (Lazard, Apr 2016)

    The authors examine emerging market factor returns over a 10-year period, discussing short- and long-term patterns of performance, and comparing the results with data from developed equity markets. The paper also takes an in-depth study of the "value factor". The report is helpful, both for stock pickers and quants, helping to explain the considerations ...

  • McKinsey & Company

    Has Profit Share Peaked? The new global competition for corporate profits (2015)

    The past 30 years have seen the biggest corporations in the world benefit from market expansion, declining costs, and profit growth, but these gains may end soon. In this McKinsey Global Institute report, the global corporate-profit pool is projected: with potential reductions from 10% world GDP to 8% by 2025, all the recent gains may become undone in a single decade.

  • Segal Consulting

    Introduction To The Frontier Markets and The Opportunity They Present for Investors

    Frontier markets, from Argentina to Zambia, grant investors the opportunity to utilize growth patterns and economic conditions varying from those found in more developed economies. This article outlines some of the factors in play regarding frontier markets besides explaining the ways and reasons, or lack thereof, investments may be made in these pre-emerging markets.