Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers

White papers and articles on the outlook for emerging markets. The research in this section includes reports into the short-term outlook for emerging market economies, and also papers on theoretical and educational themes relating to EM investing. Our white papers on emerging markets answer questions such as: Does the Shiller PE (CAPE) work in emerging equity markets? How does quantitative easing impact emerging markets? Do factor models work in emerging markets? Does GDP growth drive EM equity returns? Other popular papers on EM education include "an introduction to the frontier markets" and "the case of emerging market currencies in the long-run." In terms of periodic reports on EM outlook, perhaps the most popular research in this section is written by JP Morgan, Templeton (Mark Mobius), KKR and Goldman Sachs. Recently, of course, analysis of China's renminbi devaluation has been very popular, in particular the effect of devaluation on other emerging markets. Other research in this category examines EM real estate, EM venture capital, EM private equity, EM debt and EM infrastructure, with much research on the BRICS nations (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa) as well as other leading LATAM and MINT economies.
  • PineBridge Investments

    2017 Mid-Year Outlook: Great Expectations for Global Growth (PineBridge, June 2017)

    We have seen some surprises in global markets and economies thus far in 2017. The biggest risk to global growth – political risk in Europe – has largely been defanged, but political risk in the US and Latin America is gaining strength. Economies in China and Europe have also surprised on the upside, spurring expectations for more synchronized growth among developed ...

  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    The Future of Emerging Market Equities (BNP Paribas, April 2017)

    Investors have been dismayed by the under-performance of emerging market (EM) equities compared to developed market (DM) equities over the last several years. Is the recent rebound in relative performance structural or just temporary mean reversion? Many worry that the end of the commodity super-cycle and the slowdown in China signal lacklustre results for emerging market equities ...

  • William Blair

    Emerging Markets Outlook for 2017: Risks Remain, But There Are Reasons for Optimism (William Blair, Mar 2017)

    The past 12 months have been fairly turbulent in emerging markets, but a number of factors support emerging market performance. Valuations are attractive. Corporate earnings have improved. External imbalances are better than they were in previous periods of stress. The Chinese macro environment has stabilized. Commodity prices are supportive. Stronger growth in developed markets ...

  • T. Rowe Price

    2017 Global Market Outlook (T. Rowe Price)

    Modest global growth and uncertainty about the pace of rising interest rates require a selective eye when it comes to making investment decisions. This outlook paper by T. Rowe Price discusses how its professionals are navigating the new landscape as they help clients get on the right side of change.

  • FTSE Russell

    Capturing the Chinese A-shares and H-shares Anomaly (FTSE Russell, 2016)

    The Chinese equity market is composed of a domestic and an offshore market. The existence of the domestic A-share and the offshore H-share markets provides a choice for a Chinese company to choose its listing venue where the stock could be dually-listed on both markets. As the restrictions to invest in the China market are easing, investors are looking for a variety of tools to ...

  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    What makes Emerging Markets Fixed Income attractive – even under a Trump presidency? (BNP Paribas, Apr 2017)

    It has not gone unnoticed globally that Donald Trump is now in the White House of the United States of America. Love him or hate him, his Presidency and policies are likely to have implications that resonate around the world. As investors in Emerging Markets Fixed Income, the key question that we therefore currently have to address is how his plans may impact the emerging market ...

  • Aberdeen Asset Management

    Emerging markets debt: Here and beyond (Aberdeen AM, 2017)

    Although the US is embarking on a gradual path toward higher interest rates, low and even negative yields continue to proliferate across much of the developed world. As a result, fixed-income investors who normally stick close to home are searching far and wide to find ways of generating additional income in their portfolios.

    Click on the relevant link below to read the ...

  • FTSE Russell

    China through the mosaic of its share classes (FTSE Russell)

    China’s share classes represent the arc of the country’s transformation from a dormant agrarian society to bustling centre of global commerce. Each new share class has marked both an increased openness and often a new phase in China’s economic development. Read FTSE Russell’s latest research to gain deeper insights about the Chinese equity market.

  • KKR

    Outlook for 2017: Paradigm Shift (KKR)

    • 12 Jan 2017
    • Company: KKR

    In this KKR paper, the authors state that Donald Trump's ascendancy to the Presidency of the United States is confirmation of a political and economic paradigm shift that started with Brexit but is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, including elections across Europe in 2017. They discuss four major potentially secular changes that all investment professionals must ...

  • Lazard Asset Management

    Factor Performance in Emerging Markets (Lazard, Apr 2016)

    The authors examine emerging market factor returns over a 10-year period, discussing short- and long-term patterns of performance, and comparing the results with data from developed equity markets. The paper also takes an in-depth study of the "value factor". The report is helpful, both for stock pickers and quants, helping to explain the considerations ...

  • McKinsey & Company

    Has Profit Share Peaked? The new global competition for corporate profits (2015)

    The past 30 years have seen the biggest corporations in the world benefit from market expansion, declining costs, and profit growth, but these gains may end soon. In this McKinsey Global Institute report, the global corporate-profit pool is projected: with potential reductions from 10% world GDP to 8% by 2025, all the recent gains may become undone in a single decade.

  • Segal Consulting

    Introduction To The Frontier Markets and The Opportunity They Present for Investors

    Frontier markets, from Argentina to Zambia, grant investors the opportunity to utilize growth patterns and economic conditions varying from those found in more developed economies. This article outlines some of the factors in play regarding frontier markets besides explaining the ways and reasons, or lack thereof, investments may be made in these pre-emerging markets.

  • Does the Shiller-PE Work in Emerging Markets? (2012)

    We examine how reliable the Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) , or Shiller PE, is when utilized as a tool for valuation and forecasting for 35 countries including EM economies. We found that the CAPE can be considered a reliable indicator for valuation on the long-term for both emerging and developed markets, and it is used to forecast real returns over the period of the coming five to ...

  • Aberdeen Asset Management

    The rise of emerging markets (Aberdeen AM, 2017)

    Things are looking up for emerging markets. Uncertainty in the developed world—whether it’s in the form of Brexit or continued record low interest rates—has encouraged investors to take a closer look at the many opportunities emerging economies have to offer.

    Click on the relevant link below to read the white paper.

  • Invesco US

    When U.S. rates rise, it may be time to consider adding EM bonds

    According to conventional wisdom, when US interest rates rise, US dollar-based investors have sold US Treasuries and moved to equities and perhaps some non-US developed market bonds. But, our analysis shows this to be too simple – particularly since the US Federal Reserve (Fed) adopted unconventional monetary policies during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. We believe ...

  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    The Intelligence Report: China's central bank gives yuan fixing mechanism another tweak (BNP Paribas)

    A bi-weekly flagship publication for institutional investors. This issue considers China economic balancing act of structural reform, economic liberalisation and financial market. It looks, specifically, at a recent announcement by the PBoC on a second adjustment (in the last 18 months) to its Foreign Exchange regime.