Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers

White papers and articles on the outlook for emerging markets. The research in this section includes reports into the short-term outlook for emerging market economies, and also papers on theoretical and educational themes relating to EM investing. Our white papers on emerging markets answer questions such as: Does the Shiller PE (CAPE) work in emerging equity markets? How does quantitative easing impact emerging markets? Do factor models work in emerging markets? Does GDP growth drive EM equity returns? Other popular papers on EM education include "an introduction to the frontier markets" and "the case of emerging market currencies in the long-run." In terms of periodic reports on EM outlook, perhaps the most popular research in this section is written by JP Morgan, Templeton (Mark Mobius), KKR and Goldman Sachs. Recently, of course, analysis of China's renminbi devaluation has been very popular, in particular the effect of devaluation on other emerging markets. Other research in this category examines EM real estate, EM venture capital, EM private equity, EM debt and EM infrastructure, with much research on the BRICS nations (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa) as well as other leading LATAM and MINT economies.
  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    The catch is that five years is a very long time. Everyone knows this from personal experience, of course, but it is often forgotten when it comes to financial markets and economic trends. The here and now is the main focus. The purpose of the warning is simple: ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1470
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  • PineBridge Investments

    2017 Mid-Year Outlook: Great Expectations for Global Growth (PineBridge, June 2017)

    We have seen some surprises in global markets and economies thus far in 2017. The biggest risk to global growth – political risk in Europe – has largely been defanged, but political risk in the US and Latin America is gaining strength. Economies in China and Europe have also surprised on the upside, spurring expectations for more synchronized growth among developed ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1068
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  • FTSE Russell

    Capturing the Chinese A-shares and H-shares Anomaly (FTSE Russell, 2016)

    The Chinese equity market is composed of a domestic and an offshore market. The existence of the domestic A-share and the offshore H-share markets provides a choice for a Chinese company to choose its listing venue where the stock could be dually-listed on both markets. As the restrictions to invest in the China market are easing, investors are looking for a variety of tools to ...

  • Eaton Vance Institutional

    Emerging-market debt: Navigating the allocation dilemma (Eaton Vance Institutional, Sept 2017)

    Positive fundamental changes in emerging markets over the past 10-15 years, along with robust economic growth and the proliferation of emerging-market debt (EMD) indices, have helped transform EMD into a mainstream asset class. Growing interest in EMD has led to increased resources dedicated to these assets and expanded access for investors, which, in turn, has added to the ...

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices

    Looking Beyond Traditional Benchmarks to Add Value in Emerging Markets (S&P Dow Jones Indices, July 2017)

    As emerging markets have grown in size and importance, emerging market equities have become a core part of many portfolio allocations. In addition, the increased diversity and liquidity of emerging equity markets have made strategies commonly used to manage developed market portfolios (such as tactical allocations across regions and size segments) much more accessible to emerging ...

  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    What makes Emerging Markets Fixed Income attractive – even under a Trump presidency? (BNP Paribas, Apr 2017)

    It has not gone unnoticed globally that Donald Trump is now in the White House of the United States of America. Love him or hate him, his Presidency and policies are likely to have implications that resonate around the world. As investors in Emerging Markets Fixed Income, the key question that we therefore currently have to address is how his plans may impact the emerging market ...

  • Aberdeen Asset Management

    Emerging markets debt: Here and beyond (Aberdeen AM, 2017)

    Although the US is embarking on a gradual path toward higher interest rates, low and even negative yields continue to proliferate across much of the developed world. As a result, fixed-income investors who normally stick close to home are searching far and wide to find ways of generating additional income in their portfolios.

    Click on the relevant link below to read the ...

  • FTSE Russell

    China through the mosaic of its share classes (FTSE Russell)

    China’s share classes represent the arc of the country’s transformation from a dormant agrarian society to bustling centre of global commerce. Each new share class has marked both an increased openness and often a new phase in China’s economic development. Read FTSE Russell’s latest research to gain deeper insights about the Chinese equity market.

  • Lazard Asset Management

    Factor Performance in Emerging Markets (Lazard, Apr 2016)

    The authors examine emerging market factor returns over a 10-year period, discussing short- and long-term patterns of performance, and comparing the results with data from developed equity markets. The paper also takes an in-depth study of the "value factor". The report is helpful, both for stock pickers and quants, helping to explain the considerations ...

  • McKinsey & Company

    Has Profit Share Peaked? The new global competition for corporate profits (2015)

    The past 30 years have seen the biggest corporations in the world benefit from market expansion, declining costs, and profit growth, but these gains may end soon. In this McKinsey Global Institute report, the global corporate-profit pool is projected: with potential reductions from 10% world GDP to 8% by 2025, all the recent gains may become undone in a single decade.

  • Segal Consulting

    Introduction To The Frontier Markets and The Opportunity They Present for Investors

    Frontier markets, from Argentina to Zambia, grant investors the opportunity to utilize growth patterns and economic conditions varying from those found in more developed economies. This article outlines some of the factors in play regarding frontier markets besides explaining the ways and reasons, or lack thereof, investments may be made in these pre-emerging markets.

  • Does the Shiller-PE Work in Emerging Markets? (2012)

    We examine how reliable the Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) , or Shiller PE, is when utilized as a tool for valuation and forecasting for 35 countries including EM economies. We found that the CAPE can be considered a reliable indicator for valuation on the long-term for both emerging and developed markets, and it is used to forecast real returns over the period of the coming five to ...

  • Fidelity International

    China: The Next Five Years - what the party congress means for investors (Fidelity Intl, Oct 2017)

    As China’s once-in-five-years Communist Party Congress convenes in Beijing, investors should pay close attention to three key areas. China needs to deleverage its swelling debt load, ensure the sustainable development of its systemically important property market and overhaul its industrial structure as it moves up the value chain. In this article, Catherine Yeung, equities ...

  • KKR

    Asia: Leaning In (KKR, Oct 2017)

    • 12 Oct 2017
    • Company: KKR

    In a world largely starved for structural growth, both cyclical and secular forces are now working in concert to create a favorable environment for capital deployment across many parts of Asia. Key to our thinking is that the current macro backdrop, including a more favorable currency environment as well as a more stable China, has turned more positive. Beyond the compelling ...

  • Fidelity International

    Another Asian financial crisis? All roads lead to Beijing (Fidelity International, Aug 2017)

    For many investors, the Asian financial crisis has faded into the background, overshadowed by the more recent global financial crisis. But for Asia, it was the 1997 crisis that set in motion its ongoing resilience. While there are lurking pockets of risk, the next big global shock could come from China wrestling with its dependence on credit.

  • GMO

    Revisiting the Traditional EM Equities Allocation Framework (GMO, 2017)

    • 15 Aug 2017
    • Company: GMO

    As an asset class, Emerging Market (EM) equities have evolved considerably in the last 25 years, but traditional valuation metrics have remained static and should not be relied upon solely to guide allocation decisions. This paper by GMO compliments a traditional valuation-bsed framework with a risk-based approach that is designed to assess the attractiveness of the EM asset class.

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