Debt and Credit Outlook

Debt and Credit Outlook - Articles & White Papers

White papers and articles relating to the debt and credit outlook; covering sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, municipal fixed income, high yield and index-linked bonds. Amongst the most popular fixed income research in this section are papers on bond market liquidity risk, in particular studies of global financial market liquidity and surveys of long-term US interest rates (why long-term interest rates are so low, etc). White papers on bond market valuation tend to be well received. For example, an analysis of the valuation of UK index-linked gilts (why are linkers persistently overvalued?) has been a popular paper. As expected, reports which examine the interest rate outlook have proved popular, particularly those seeking to explain the thought-processes at the FOMC, ECB, BoE, MPC et al. Amongst the periodic fixed income outlook documents on the site, perhaps the most popular is the Prudential Fixed Income Quarterly Outlook and the Goldman Sachs Global Fixed Income Outlook. Practical papers for fixed income fund managers have also proved popular, for instance on managing credit and interest rate risk in the current environment, or the implications of negative yields for fixed income funds.
  • Invesco US

    Invesco Global Fixed Income Study 2018

    Since the turmoil of the financial crisis, investors are navigating a great calm in fixed income markets, however, there is a sense amongst investors that the prevailing period of calm is coming to an end as central bank intervention is withdrawn and investor behaviours subsequently change. Through conducting 79 face-to-face interviews with leading fixed income specialists across ...

  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    Robeco strategists aim not to give an accurate, detailed account of what will happen the next five years: they do not profess to know that. They present the broader trends, the averages. This publication includes special topics on secular stagnation; the ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 3864
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  • World’s largest hedge fund chief: The economy looks grim in the long-term (May 2017)

    In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2038
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  • Eaton Vance Management International

    Emerging Markets Local Income (EMLI) strategy: Casting the widest net in emerging-markets debt (Eaton Vance)

    In 2017, investors rediscovered their enthusiasm for emerging-markets (EM) local currency debt. With a yield in excess of 6% on the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified in 2017 as of 30 September, EM local currency debt has been the highest yielding of the major global fixed-income sectors. Total return in US dollars over the same ...

  • Royal London Asset Management

    Securitised Bonds: Finding Security in Bond Markets (RLAM, 2017)

    Secured (or securitised) bonds still carry the stigma of the 2008 financial crisis. But stigma often spells opportunity, and the fixed income specialists at RLAM argue that this asset class offers great value for managers who are prepared to get to grips with the documentation underlying individual securities. Not everyone is prepared to do this research, and as a result secured ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1419
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  • Schroders

    Long-run asset class performance: 30yr return forecasts (2017-46) Schroders

    Schroders Economics Group produces 30-year return forecasts, on an annual basis, for a range of asset classes. Here they outline the methodology used, which is based on a series of building blocks and estimates of risk premia, and surmise the key conclusions from our analysis. For the first time, this year they are also publishing a wider range of country-specific returns for ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2756
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  • Credit Suisse

    The Future of Monetary Policy (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This Credit Suisse paper looks at the transformative changes central banks in advanced economies have undergone since 2008. The report concludes that the key issue for decision-makers globally remains to consider which fundamental direction monetary policy ought to take next, assessing two alternative scenarios that may evolve: a return to a pre-crisis "normal", or fiscal dominance.

    • Professional
    • Views: 1339
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  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

    Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest (John Williams of FRBSF, Dec 2016)

    U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. The authors of this paper find that large declines in GDP trend growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25 years in the four economies ...

  • Invesco (Europe)

    Invesco Global Fixed Income Study 2018

    Since the turmoil of the financial crisis, investors are navigating a great calm in fixed income markets, however, there is a sense amongst investors that the prevailing period of calm is coming to an end as central bank intervention is withdrawn and investor behaviours subsequently change. Through conducting 79 face-to-face interviews with leading fixed income specialists across ...

  • Invesco (Europe)

    2018 Investment Outlook (Invesco)

    The surging markets of the past year have taken place against a backdrop of macro developments whose long-term impact on the world economy has yet to be realised: uncertainty regarding the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, potential tax reform in the US, North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing, continued oil price volatility and the outcome of key elections in ...

  • Invesco US

    Invesco U.S. 2018 Investment Outlook

    The surging markets of the past year have taken place against a backdrop of macro developments whose long-term impact on the world economy has yet to be realized: the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, potential tax reform in the US, North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing, continued oil price volatility and the outcome of key elections in Germany, France, Iran and ...

  • Robeco

    Outlook 2018: Playing in extra time (Robeco, Nov 2017)

    In their 2018 market outlook, Robeco likens the current macro-economic backdrop to 'playing in extra time' - a period where the best part of the game is over, but the outcome is still undecided. This late-stage cycle is evidenced by declining credit quality and concerns over levels of debt issuance, increasingly tight labor markets despite low inflation and wage growth, and ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1097
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  • Franklin Templeton Investments

    Shift in EU Investors Towards US Municipal Bonds (Franklin Templeton)

    The U.S. taxable municipal bond market appears to be a compelling proposition to various investors. Some of the other factors that add to the attractiveness of taxable U.S. municipal bonds (munis) include their superior credit quality (largely at par with German or Japanese issuances), low correlation with other asset classes and long duration, which make them suitable for ...

  • FTSE Russell

    FTSE Russell China Bond Research Report

    With renminbi (RMB) internationalization remaining slow, the Bond Connect programme—which enables foreign institutional investors to trade securities on a Hong Kong exchange—showed boosted confidence in China’s short-term debt markets this past August. Learn how “more of the same” expectations influenced the recent trading spike, and why the ...

  • JP Morgan - Asset Management

    2018 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan AM)

    JP Morgan Asset Management's detailed Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is out! Now in its 22nd year, the 2017 edition explores the complex interplay between secular themes, including global aging and technological innovation, and cyclical factors—notably the slow path of policy normalization and elevated equity valuations—that will influence asset returns ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1838
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  • QMA

    Q4 2017 Outlook & Review (QMA)

    • 24 Oct 2017
    • Company: QMA

    How much longer can the US expansion last? At 96 months, the current recovery is already one of the longest on record. Another year and half and it will break the all-time mark set by the banner expansion of the 1990s. Still, based on the indicators we monitor most closely for recession risk, QMA now considers the odds of a downturn before the end of 2018 to be low. As QMA's Q4 ...

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