The long view: The evolution of fixed income markets

How much private credit is too much?

The Long View brings investors the latest, most in-depth, and most pragmatic takes on the forces shaping specific asset classes. This first instalment focuses on fixed income. From forward-looking analysis on private credit markets to deep dives into key regions within the global fixed income universe, these insights will help allocators understand this evolving landscape and assist in achieving their investment goals.

Private fixed income on the rise

Private Credit Outlook 2026: Growth and Maturity (Ares)

While falling interest rates may reduce floating-rate income, private credit maintains a premium over liquid alternatives through spreads, fees, and structural protections.

The Rapid Rise of Private Credit and BDCs (S&P Dow Jones Indices)

In investment spaces, investors have increasingly turned to private credit, seeking higher yields amid a low-interest rate environment and greater diversification.

2026 Direct Lending Outlook (Principal Asset Management)

An improving and supportive backdrop, coupled with appealing credit structures, should create an environment ripe with attractive investment opportunities in 2026.

Morningstar Leveraged Loan Index Monitor: Q4 2025 (Morningstar Indexes)

This is the latest installment of the Morningstar Leveraged Loan Index Monitor, which provides investors with in-depth knowledge of the leveraged loan universe.

2026 Investment Grade Private Credit: Annual Review and Outlook (Metlife IM)

Several global themes will continue to influence market dynamics during 2026.

Public and private fixed income markets meet

Cyclical Outlook: Compounding Opportunity (PIMCO)

Active fixed income strategies delivered their best results in years in 2025, and the outlook for 2026 is just as compelling.

Global Fixed Income Outlook: Rates, Risk and Reality (MacKay Shields)

A deterioration in the labor market that sees the unemployment rate rising above 5% would force aggressive Fed easing, justifying a duration extension.

2026 Fixed Income Outlook: Shifts Create Opportunities (Nuveen)

In 2026, the global fixed income landscape will be more differentiated, more policy-driven, and ultimately more investable than in recent years.

Asian Credit Outlook 2026: Report (UBS AM)

Asian credit continues to benefit from favorable technical conditions.

Where Should Investors Land on the Aggregate Continuum? (Marquette Associates)

Contrary to widespread belief, fixed income aggregate strategies offer a continuum of active risk and return profiles.

Fixed income analysis from policymakers & academics

Credit Conditions Survey Q4 2025 (Bank of England)

Lenders reported that the availability of secured credit to households increased in the three months to end of November 2025.

Dynamics of Sovereign Debt: Credit Risk and Sustainability (INET Oxford)

Global public debt is projected to exceed $100 trillion in 2025, making sovereign debt the world’s largest asset class.

New Intermediation: Credit Risk to NBFIs, Liquidity Risk to Banks (FRBNY)

Non-bank financial intermediaries have become the dominant sector of the global financial system, with assets growing faster than those of banks over the last two decades.

Direct Lenders and Middle Market Banking (Becker Friedman Institute)

The AUM of direct lenders has increased sharply to over $1.6 trillion, raising questions about whether and how they substitute for banks or serve distinct market segments.