Capital Market Assumptions and Projections for Global Assets
Several long-term asset class forecasts have recently begun to include elements of climate change risk. The intersection of these two concepts is covered within QMA's capital market assumptions paper, which includes both an optimistic and a pessimistic climate scenario. DWS's webinar about their long-term forecasts for global asset classes weaves in many aspects of environmental, social, and governance investing.
A high degree of dispersion is also present within the forecasts for different asset classes, as evidenced by PineBridge's latest Capital Market Line analysis. The picture that GMO paints is particularly dire, with only emerging value returns projected to be positive in the medium term.
PineBridge reviews global economic conditions and monetary stimulus efforts before presenting insights from their latest Capital Market Line analysis. This quarter's CML presents a high degree of dispersion between asset class projections, but favours EM debt and equity.
This MFS quarterly outlook compares current equity market attributes and bond yields to longer-term (ten-year) averages for each market.
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States
Within this 84-page guide, Amundi Asset Management showcases their three, five, and ten-year expected return forecasts for major asset classes, as well as the key drivers affecting these assumptions.
This webinar from DWS discusses their ten-year forecasts for major asset classes. It also compares returns from ESG investments versus traditional investments.
Climate change is a long-term issue, and as a result, QMA makes the case that climate-related projections should become part of investors' long-term asset class assumptions.
The Rockefeller Family Office showcases its methodology for generating capital markets assumptions, which focuses on decomposing the relevant fundamental risk factors.
AIMCo presents their long-term (ten-year) forecast for 18 different asset classes. Their models attempt to capture a post-pandemic perspective, and now also incorporate climate change analysis.
Columbia Threadneedle depicts their five-year forecast for major asset classes via a single graph that is accompanied by a brief overview of key takeaways.
GMO's seven-year forecast presents a fairly dire picture for global asset classes. Only emerging value is projected to produce a positive real return over this time-period.