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Global Investment Outlook: November 2021

Navigating the Post-Pandemic Investment Landscape

As we begin to wrap up the final two months of 2021 and start looking forward to what may come in 2022, asset managers and consultants present their views on how best to navigate the post-pandemic landscape.

This month's selection of outlook content pays particular attention to macroeconomics, with insight into European productivity, the effects of high energy prices on consumption, and 'demand-pull' inflation.

Compass November 2021 outlook



GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK


Europe’s Openness and its Effect on Productivity (PGIM Fixed Income, 2021)

PGIM Fixed Income explores the intertwining effects of trade, competition, openness, and productivity within the European Union. The region is regarded as the most open in the world and its long term prospects are appraised in this context.

Video: Reexamining the post-pandemic consumer (Diamond Hill CM, 2021)

This investment roundtable tackles the impact Covid-19 has had on consumers’ spending habits and debt management, as well as other trends they are seeing, and the effect of all of this on specific companies.

Video: Beyond headline multiples – U.S. Equities (Federated Hermes, Nov 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

This webcast challenges valuations in U.S. markets and makes an argument in favour of quality within small- and mid-caps. It also covers the macro picture and the U.S. economy.

Cross Asset Investment Strategy – November 2021 (Amundi)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi lays out its current positioning within fixed income and equities against a backdrop of inflation debate and stagflation concerns.

Asset Allocation Monthly – November 2021 (BNP Paribas AM)

There are concerns for growth in the short term according to BNP Paribas who identify a number of headwinds. They also lay out their mid- and longer-term views, including their preference for equities in favour of government bonds.

Multi-Asset Market Outlook Nov 2021 (Robeco)

Earnings drove a record month for the S&P 500 in October, but concerns remain elsewhere, including continued turbulence in the bond market, contraction in the Chinese economy, and higher energy prices eroding spending power.

Inflation: Persistent or transitory? (Franklin Templeton Investments, Nov 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Franklin Templeton puts the focus on the U.S. inflation experience, exploring the drivers of the current high levels and whether these are likely to persist or be temporary. They identify five key variables as bellwethers to monitor.

Investment Traffic Lights (DWS Group, Nov 2021)

Equities had a positive October and we now head into what is usually a strong time of year for the stock market, though doubts abound. Fixed income markets continue to grapple with inflationary concerns.

Shortages: A Demand Shock, Not a Supply Shock (Bridgewater Associates, 2021)

Persistent macro-related demand causes for inflation are outlined, with a suggestion that inflation focus has been too heavy on the micro elements of the supply shock when assessing the future path for inflation and monetary policy.

When Capital Market Returns Outstrip GDP Growth (Absolute Return Partners, 2021)

What happens when wealth grows faster than economic growth, and what stops that phenomenon continuing forever?

Global Macro Policy in a Post-pandemic World (Insight Investment, 2021)

The authors discuss a post-pandemic world and what it means for China’s next steps, a potentially divergent future for developing and developed economies, as well as a challenge to the lack of fairness in approaches to climate change.


UPCOMING CONFERENCES


Virtual Event 30 Nov - 1 Dec 2021: PLSA Trustee Conference

This two-day digital event is designed for trustees to help keep them up-to-date on the latest changes affecting pensions.

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