Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook - Articles & White Papers

White papers, articles and investment research on the global economic outlook. This section contains economic commentary on both cyclical and secular economic factors affecting financial markets. Among the most popular reports in this section is BofAML's "Transforming World Atlas" (which uses maps to illustrate investment themes) - and the World Economic Forum's "Global Risks Report" which considers global risks under five headings: economic risk, environmental risk, geopolitical risk, societal risk and technological risk. A number of other top papers are "evergreen" in nature, tackling subjects such as demography and economic growth, understanding the monetary system, how US monetary policy transmits to emerging markets, shadow banking, the history of inflation and how to forecast inflation. Most of our economic papers, however, feature contemporary economic research. The three topics receiving the most interest recently have been the obvious ones - China devaluation (why its so bad for equities and commodities), forecasts for the timing and size of Fed tightening and the Greek crisis. But also sparking interest have been papers on the savings glut, the implications of a peak in global FX reserves, and articles from key commentators such as Ben Bernanke, Mohamed El-Erian and Gavyn Davies. Whether an investment manager is looking for monthly economic outlook research, economic commentary on emerging markets, forecasts for interest rates and inflation or analysis of economic growth, the relevant white papers and surveys can be found here.
  • Bank for International Settlements

    Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends (BIS, 2017)

    Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power of private sector trade unions; increasing inequality ...

    • Professional
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  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    The catch is that five years is a very long time. Everyone knows this from personal experience, of course, but it is often forgotten when it comes to financial markets and economic trends. The here and now is the main focus. The purpose of the warning is simple: ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1289
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  • Credit Suisse

    Supertrends - Investing for the Long Term (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This 97-page report has been produced by Credit Suisse. It analyses the key trends affecting long-term investing, such as geopolitics, demographic shifts, and rapid technology change. These movements provide a tangible link between today’s major developments and portfolios' risk/return profiles in the long run.

    • Professional
    • Views: 1946
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  • World’s largest hedge fund chief: The economy looks grim in the long-term (May 2017)

    In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1765
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  • JP Morgan - Asset Management

    2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan)

    This edition of JP Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions is written against a backdrop of low investment return expectations, slow global growth and unprecedented monetary policy decisions. The paper considers the long-term impact of the structural factors affecting economies today on a 10 - 15 year investment horizon. 

    The detailed 90 page document ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1470
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  • PineBridge Investments

    2017 Mid-Year Outlook: Great Expectations for Global Growth (PineBridge, June 2017)

    We have seen some surprises in global markets and economies thus far in 2017. The biggest risk to global growth – political risk in Europe – has largely been defanged, but political risk in the US and Latin America is gaining strength. Economies in China and Europe have also surprised on the upside, spurring expectations for more synchronized growth among developed ...

    • Professional
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  • Credit Suisse

    The Future of Monetary Policy (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This Credit Suisse paper looks at the transformative changes central banks in advanced economies have undergone since 2008. The report concludes that the key issue for decision-makers globally remains to consider which fundamental direction monetary policy ought to take next, assessing two alternative scenarios that may evolve: a return to a pre-crisis "normal", or fiscal dominance.

  • GMO

    Market Macro Myths: Debts, Deficits and Delusions (James Montier, Jan 2016)

    • 04 Feb 2016
    • Company: GMO

    This paper by James Montier focuses on the concept of "sound finance" in the context of the role played by debts and deficits in overall economic policy. Montier believes that budget deficits shouldn't be avoided if they help policymakers achieve the two main goals of macroeconomic policy, namely price stability and full employment. He seeks to show why the advocates ...

  • Fidelity International

    The Draghi Put: Five years in Five Charts (Fidelity International, 2017)

    Sometimes, a very short sentence can have an enormous effect on financial markets, especially if the person speaking is ECB president Mario Draghi and it is the height of the eurozone crisis. Draghi gave markets an iconic show of commitment and political will. But what did it take, and has it worked? Fidelity offers five charts which summarise the progress of the last five years, ...

  • Deutsche Asset Management

    CIO View: Quarterly Investment Outlook (Deutsche Asset Management, July 2017)

    During the first half of 2017, central banks have continued to be accommodating and, for the first time in years, we can expect a simultaneous pickup in both the emerging and advanced economies. Deutsche Asset Management CIO, Stefan Kreuzkamp, examines the prospect of a "Goldilocks" economy and discuss the impact on fixed income and equity markets. He also ...

  • State Street Global Advisors

    Global Market Outlook Mid-Year 2017: Upturn Goes Global (SSGA)

    This 28-page chartbook provides a visual illustration of key global economic and strategy issues. Global CIO Rick Lacaille reports that, "Mixed signals coming out of the US economy have raised questions about whether we can still confidently speak of global reflation rather than modest expansion. Still global growth for 2017 is slated to improve for the first time in three ...

  • UBS Asset Management

    The reversal of U.S. QE: Everything you need to know (but were afraid to ask) UBS, June 2017

    With Quantitative Easing such a key influence on markets, we analyze why the Fed has decided the time is now right, how the Fed will reduce its holdings and the likely reactions of investors across asset classes. With the security buffer of liquidity slowly being reduced, our view is that all asset classes will gradually become more susceptible to bursts of higher volatility.

  • Invesco (Europe)

    Global opportunities in a de-globalising world (Invesco, June 2017)

    While globalisation has been a dominant trend for many years, the US presidential election and Britain’s vote to leave the EU are just two examples illustrating there may be a shift back towards nationalism and, by extension, protectionist policies. We explain that an increase in market disintegration can present new and different opportunities for investors and how the ...

  • GMO

    The Deep Causes of Secular Stagnation and the Rise of Populism (GMO, 2017)

    • 16 May 2017
    • Company: GMO

    The rise of populism has been one of the broad themes to emerge over the last few years. This has left many within the establishment scratching their heads as to the cause of their fall from grace. In this paper, James Montier and Philip Pilkington of GMO argue that the rise of populism has its roots in the same sources that have given rise to so-called “secular stagnation.” ...

  • How the Economic Machine Works (Ray Dalio)

    The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine. But many people don’t understand it – or they don’t agree on how it works – and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering. In this brief article, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, shares a practical economic template describing how he believes it ...

  • Citi

    Solutions for the Global Water Crisis: The End of 'Free and Cheap' Water (Citi, 2017)

    • 09 May 2017
    • Company: Citi

    Over the years there have been many academic studies, government policies, non-governmental organizations (NGO) reports, industrial plans, and others all focusing on ways to improve the management of water and reduce inefficient water use over time - and yet we are still faced with the problem of a looming global water crisis. So why haven’t we solved this problem? This paper by ...