Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook - Articles & White Papers

White papers, articles and investment research on the global economic outlook. This section contains economic commentary on both cyclical and secular economic factors affecting financial markets. Among the most popular reports in this section is BofAML's "Transforming World Atlas" (which uses maps to illustrate investment themes) - and the World Economic Forum's "Global Risks Report" which considers global risks under five headings: economic risk, environmental risk, geopolitical risk, societal risk and technological risk. A number of other top papers are "evergreen" in nature, tackling subjects such as demography and economic growth, understanding the monetary system, how US monetary policy transmits to emerging markets, shadow banking, the history of inflation and how to forecast inflation. Most of our economic papers, however, feature contemporary economic research. The three topics receiving the most interest recently have been the obvious ones - China devaluation (why its so bad for equities and commodities), forecasts for the timing and size of Fed tightening and the Greek crisis. But also sparking interest have been papers on the savings glut, the implications of a peak in global FX reserves, and articles from key commentators such as Ben Bernanke, Mohamed El-Erian and Gavyn Davies. Whether an investment manager is looking for monthly economic outlook research, economic commentary on emerging markets, forecasts for interest rates and inflation or analysis of economic growth, the relevant white papers and surveys can be found here.
  • Bank for International Settlements

    Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends (BIS, 2017)

    Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power of private sector trade unions; increasing inequality ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2998
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  • Invesco US

    Invesco Global Fixed Income Study 2018

    Since the turmoil of the financial crisis, investors are navigating a great calm in fixed income markets, however, there is a sense amongst investors that the prevailing period of calm is coming to an end as central bank intervention is withdrawn and investor behaviours subsequently change. Through conducting 79 face-to-face interviews with leading fixed income specialists across ...

  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    Robeco strategists aim not to give an accurate, detailed account of what will happen the next five years: they do not profess to know that. They present the broader trends, the averages. This publication includes special topics on secular stagnation; the ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 3864
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  • Credit Suisse

    Supertrends - Investing for the Long Term (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This 97-page report has been produced by Credit Suisse. It analyses the key trends affecting long-term investing, such as geopolitics, demographic shifts, and rapid technology change. These movements provide a tangible link between today’s major developments and portfolios' risk/return profiles in the long run.

    • Professional
    • Views: 2768
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  • World’s largest hedge fund chief: The economy looks grim in the long-term (May 2017)

    In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2038
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  • Fidelity International

    Outlook 2018: Time for change? (Fidelity International)

    Markets may have proved surprisingly resilient over 2017 but the clock is still ticking on the unprecedented market environment of recent years. The year ahead could see the unwinding of both the extraordinary bull-run across equities and bonds, and the global policy experiments that have underpinned this. If midnight strikes in 2018, how should investors navigate the uncertain ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1136
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  • State Street Global Advisors

    2018 Global Market Outlook (SSGA)

    Global growth is now more evenly distributed (and expected to return to its historical trend rate of 3.7%), inflation remains (so far) muted, and the coming year should be supportive for risk assets. SSGA's Global Market Outlook discusses these key themes for 2018, and how the current macroeconomical and geopolitical backdrop ought to shape portfolio positioning going forward ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2052
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  • Credit Suisse

    The Future of Monetary Policy (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This Credit Suisse paper looks at the transformative changes central banks in advanced economies have undergone since 2008. The report concludes that the key issue for decision-makers globally remains to consider which fundamental direction monetary policy ought to take next, assessing two alternative scenarios that may evolve: a return to a pre-crisis "normal", or fiscal dominance.

    • Professional
    • Views: 1339
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  • KKR

    What Does Population Aging Mean for Growth and Investments? (KKR, Feb 2018)

    • 14 Feb 2018
    • Company: KKR

    This excellent paper by KKR explores what population aging means for growth, investment, and social cohesion around the world. The authors addresses some of the economic implications of aging, the levers countries may pull to counteract these challenges, and the investment opportunities that arise as a result.

  • Invesco (Europe)

    Invesco Global Fixed Income Study 2018

    Since the turmoil of the financial crisis, investors are navigating a great calm in fixed income markets, however, there is a sense amongst investors that the prevailing period of calm is coming to an end as central bank intervention is withdrawn and investor behaviours subsequently change. Through conducting 79 face-to-face interviews with leading fixed income specialists across ...

  • Invesco (Europe)

    2018 Investment Outlook (Invesco)

    The surging markets of the past year have taken place against a backdrop of macro developments whose long-term impact on the world economy has yet to be realised: uncertainty regarding the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, potential tax reform in the US, North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing, continued oil price volatility and the outcome of key elections in ...

  • William Blair

    Global Market Outlook for 2018: An End or a Beginning? (William Blair)

    2017 was a particularly strong year, with broad growth and low inflation creating an almost perfect environment for equity investors. Technology was a significant part of that story. Bitcoin reached $17,000, an increase of over 1,600% since January 1. China, which is transforming into one of the most innovative countries in the world, had one of the most interesting runs we have ...

  • Invesco US

    Invesco U.S. 2018 Investment Outlook

    The surging markets of the past year have taken place against a backdrop of macro developments whose long-term impact on the world economy has yet to be realized: the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, potential tax reform in the US, North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing, continued oil price volatility and the outcome of key elections in Germany, France, Iran and ...

  • PineBridge Investments

    2018 Investment Outlook: Disruption yields opportunity (PineBridge, Nov 2017)

    Market disruptions. We’ve seen many of these since the great financial crisis, and they’re usually bad things. The liquidity freeze. The taper tantrum. The oil price drop. In recent years, disruption has taken on new meaning in the tech world. A disruptor has been defined as one of two things: a product that addresses a market that previously couldn’t be served, ...

    • Short article
    • Views: 1187
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  • Robeco

    Outlook 2018: Playing in extra time (Robeco, Nov 2017)

    In their 2018 market outlook, Robeco likens the current macro-economic backdrop to 'playing in extra time' - a period where the best part of the game is over, but the outcome is still undecided. This late-stage cycle is evidenced by declining credit quality and concerns over levels of debt issuance, increasingly tight labor markets despite low inflation and wage growth, and ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1097
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  • JP Morgan - Asset Management

    2018 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan AM)

    JP Morgan Asset Management's detailed Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is out! Now in its 22nd year, the 2017 edition explores the complex interplay between secular themes, including global aging and technological innovation, and cyclical factors—notably the slow path of policy normalization and elevated equity valuations—that will influence asset returns ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1838
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