Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook - Articles & White Papers

White papers, articles and investment research on the global economic outlook. This section contains economic commentary on both cyclical and secular economic factors affecting financial markets. Among the most popular reports in this section is BofAML's "Transforming World Atlas" (which uses maps to illustrate investment themes) - and the World Economic Forum's "Global Risks Report" which considers global risks under five headings: economic risk, environmental risk, geopolitical risk, societal risk and technological risk. A number of other top papers are "evergreen" in nature, tackling subjects such as demography and economic growth, understanding the monetary system, how US monetary policy transmits to emerging markets, shadow banking, the history of inflation and how to forecast inflation. Most of our economic papers, however, feature contemporary economic research. The three topics receiving the most interest recently have been the obvious ones - China devaluation (why its so bad for equities and commodities), forecasts for the timing and size of Fed tightening and the Greek crisis. But also sparking interest have been papers on the savings glut, the implications of a peak in global FX reserves, and articles from key commentators such as Ben Bernanke, Mohamed El-Erian and Gavyn Davies. Whether an investment manager is looking for monthly economic outlook research, economic commentary on emerging markets, forecasts for interest rates and inflation or analysis of economic growth, the relevant white papers and surveys can be found here.
  • Robeco

    Expected Returns 2017-2021: It’s Always Darkest Just Before Dawn (Robeco, Oct 2016)

    Sentiment among professional investors seems to have reached new lows, and truly, there are enough reasons investors can think of to justify a bearish view on financial markets. We can see the disintegration of the European economy (Brexit, the rise of populist parties, Italian banks), a Chinese hard landing (unsuccessful rebalancing of the Chinese economy, high debt), a rise in ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 5690
    Read more
  • JP Morgan - Asset Management

    2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan)

    This edition of JP Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions is written against a backdrop of low investment return expectations, slow global growth and unprecedented monetary policy decisions. The paper considers the long-term impact of the structural factors affecting economies today on a 10 - 15 year investment horizon. 

    The detailed 90 page document ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1150
    Read more
  • PineBridge Investments

    2017 Mid-Year Outlook: Great Expectations for Global Growth (PineBridge, June 2017)

    We have seen some surprises in global markets and economies thus far in 2017. The biggest risk to global growth – political risk in Europe – has largely been defanged, but political risk in the US and Latin America is gaining strength. Economies in China and Europe have also surprised on the upside, spurring expectations for more synchronized growth among developed ...

  • Invesco (Europe)

    John Greenwood Quarterly Economic Outlook (Invesco, Q2 2017)

    US equity markets have so far reacted positively to the early days of Trump’s presidency but is the “reflation trade” now losing momentum? Will further hikes in US interest rates derail the global upswing? John Greenwood, Chief Economist at Invesco discusses the macro economic outlook for the rest 2017 and beyond, sharing his insights on: - the outlook of the US ...

  • World’s largest hedge fund chief: The economy looks grim in the long-term (May 2017)

    In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1449
    Read more
  • T. Rowe Price

    2017 Global Market Outlook (T. Rowe Price)

    Modest global growth and uncertainty about the pace of rising interest rates require a selective eye when it comes to making investment decisions. This outlook paper by T. Rowe Price discusses how its professionals are navigating the new landscape as they help clients get on the right side of change.

  • Credit Suisse

    The Future of Monetary Policy (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This Credit Suisse paper looks at the transformative changes central banks in advanced economies have undergone since 2008. The report concludes that the key issue for decision-makers globally remains to consider which fundamental direction monetary policy ought to take next, assessing two alternative scenarios that may evolve: a return to a pre-crisis "normal", or fiscal dominance.

  • Robeco

    Global Outlook 2017: Time for Plan B (Robeco)

    It's not just the political shocks that will set the tone for the following year. Brexit and Trump partly occurred due to dissatisfaction with the established order of things, including the way the world has primarily dealt with the aftermath of the financial crisis by using monetary policy, led by quantitative easing. The economic Plan B for 2017 is likely to see greater use ...

  • QMA (Quantitative Management Associates)

    Why Equity Investors Should Worry Less About the Fed (QMA, Nov 2016)

    Many investors are eyeing the Fed’s December open market committee meeting as the most likely timing of its first interest rate hike in a year. Some fear a less accommodative Fed could soon be the proverbial straw that breaks the back of a market currently trading at Price to Earnings of around 20 times trailing earnings. QMA’s paper upends the conventional wisdom about ...

  • GMO

    Market Macro Myths: Debts, Deficits and Delusions (James Montier, Jan 2016)

    • 04 Feb 2016
    • Company: GMO

    This paper by James Montier focuses on the concept of "sound finance" in the context of the role played by debts and deficits in overall economic policy. Montier believes that budget deficits shouldn't be avoided if they help policymakers achieve the two main goals of macroeconomic policy, namely price stability and full employment. He seeks to show why the advocates ...

  • GMO

    The Deep Causes of Secular Stagnation and the Rise of Populism (GMO, 2017)

    • 16 May 2017
    • Company: GMO

    The rise of populism has been one of the broad themes to emerge over the last few years. This has left many within the establishment scratching their heads as to the cause of their fall from grace. In this paper, James Montier and Philip Pilkington of GMO argue that the rise of populism has its roots in the same sources that have given rise to so-called “secular stagnation.” ...

  • How the Economic Machine Works (Ray Dalio)

    The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine. But many people don’t understand it – or they don’t agree on how it works – and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering. In this brief article, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, shares a practical economic template describing how he believes it ...

  • Deutsche Asset Management

    State of the Global Economy: Investment Outlook Q2 2017 (video) Deutsche AM

    In this video, Stefan Kreuzkamp, CIO Deutsche Asset Management, discusses the state of the global economy in a year dominated by politics. Europe faces a busy election calendar in 2017 and Kreuzkamp warns against drawing broad, early conclusions following last year's populist revolts with 'Brexit' in the UK and Donald Trump's victory in the US. 

  • Standard Life Investments

    Populism and the Threat to Globalisation (Standard Life, 2017)

    The rise of populist parties in Europe, the Brexit vote and the election of President Trump in the United States have all been linked to the widespread public perception that globalisation has been the driving force behind adverse distributional trends. This paper by Standard Life Investments outlines the markers that have defined the latest era of globalisation and its influence ...

  • JP Morgan - Asset Management

    JP Morgan Quarterly Guide To The Markets - Q2 2017

    The latest JP Morgan quarterly "Guide to the Markets" is a bumper 80-page report, packed with charts and tables, illustrating global economic trends, and examining the key drivers of equity and fixed income markets for the period ahead. The accompanying "quarterly perspectives" report is a "guide to the guide". 

    Select the version ...