Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook - Articles & White Papers

White papers, articles and investment research on the global economic outlook. This section contains economic commentary on both cyclical and secular economic factors affecting financial markets. Among the most popular reports in this section is BofAML's "Transforming World Atlas" (which uses maps to illustrate investment themes) - and the World Economic Forum's "Global Risks Report" which considers global risks under five headings: economic risk, environmental risk, geopolitical risk, societal risk and technological risk. A number of other top papers are "evergreen" in nature, tackling subjects such as demography and economic growth, understanding the monetary system, how US monetary policy transmits to emerging markets, shadow banking, the history of inflation and how to forecast inflation. Most of our economic papers, however, feature contemporary economic research. The three topics receiving the most interest recently have been the obvious ones - China devaluation (why its so bad for equities and commodities), forecasts for the timing and size of Fed tightening and the Greek crisis. But also sparking interest have been papers on the savings glut, the implications of a peak in global FX reserves, and articles from key commentators such as Ben Bernanke, Mohamed El-Erian and Gavyn Davies. Whether an investment manager is looking for monthly economic outlook research, economic commentary on emerging markets, forecasts for interest rates and inflation or analysis of economic growth, the relevant white papers and surveys can be found here.
  • Bank for International Settlements

    Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends (BIS, 2017)

    Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power of private sector trade unions; increasing inequality ...

    • Professional
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  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    Robeco strategists aim not to give an accurate, detailed account of what will happen the next five years: they do not profess to know that. They present the broader trends, the averages. This publication includes special topics on secular stagnation; the ...

    • Professional
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  • Credit Suisse

    Supertrends - Investing for the Long Term (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This 97-page report has been produced by Credit Suisse. It analyses the key trends affecting long-term investing, such as geopolitics, demographic shifts, and rapid technology change. These movements provide a tangible link between today’s major developments and portfolios' risk/return profiles in the long run.

    • Professional
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  • World’s largest hedge fund chief: The economy looks grim in the long-term (May 2017)

    In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt ...

    • Professional
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  • Fidelity International

    Outlook 2018: Time for change? (Fidelity International)

    Markets may have proved surprisingly resilient over 2017 but the clock is still ticking on the unprecedented market environment of recent years. The year ahead could see the unwinding of both the extraordinary bull-run across equities and bonds, and the global policy experiments that have underpinned this. If midnight strikes in 2018, how should investors navigate the uncertain ...

  • PineBridge Investments

    2017 Mid-Year Outlook: Great Expectations for Global Growth (PineBridge, June 2017)

    We have seen some surprises in global markets and economies thus far in 2017. The biggest risk to global growth – political risk in Europe – has largely been defanged, but political risk in the US and Latin America is gaining strength. Economies in China and Europe have also surprised on the upside, spurring expectations for more synchronized growth among developed ...

    • Professional
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  • Credit Suisse

    The Future of Monetary Policy (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This Credit Suisse paper looks at the transformative changes central banks in advanced economies have undergone since 2008. The report concludes that the key issue for decision-makers globally remains to consider which fundamental direction monetary policy ought to take next, assessing two alternative scenarios that may evolve: a return to a pre-crisis "normal", or fiscal dominance.

    • Professional
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  • GMO

    Market Macro Myths: Debts, Deficits and Delusions (James Montier, Jan 2016)

    • 04 Feb 2016
    • Company: GMO

    This paper by James Montier focuses on the concept of "sound finance" in the context of the role played by debts and deficits in overall economic policy. Montier believes that budget deficits shouldn't be avoided if they help policymakers achieve the two main goals of macroeconomic policy, namely price stability and full employment. He seeks to show why the advocates ...

  • Invesco US

    Invesco U.S. 2018 Investment Outlook

    The surging markets of the past year have taken place against a backdrop of macro developments whose long-term impact on the world economy has yet to be realized: the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, potential tax reform in the US, North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing, continued oil price volatility and the outcome of key elections in Germany, France, Iran and ...

  • JP Morgan - Asset Management

    2018 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan AM)

    JP Morgan Asset Management's detailed Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is out! Now in its 22nd year, the 2017 edition explores the complex interplay between secular themes, including global aging and technological innovation, and cyclical factors—notably the slow path of policy normalization and elevated equity valuations—that will influence asset returns ...

    • Professional
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  • QMA

    Q4 2017 Outlook & Review (QMA)

    • 24 Oct 2017
    • Company: QMA

    How much longer can the US expansion last? At 96 months, the current recovery is already one of the longest on record. Another year and half and it will break the all-time mark set by the banner expansion of the 1990s. Still, based on the indicators we monitor most closely for recession risk, QMA now considers the odds of a downturn before the end of 2018 to be low. As QMA's Q4 ...

  • JP Morgan - Asset Management

    JP Morgan Quarterly Guide To The Markets - Q4 2017

    The latest JP Morgan quarterly "Guide to the Markets" is a bumper 80-page report, packed with charts and tables, illustrating global economic trends, and examining the key drivers of equity and fixed income markets for the period ahead. The accompanying "quarterly perspectives" report is a "guide to the guide". 

    Select the version ...

    • Professional
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  • Fidelity International

    The Draghi Put: Five years in Five Charts (Fidelity International, 2017)

    Sometimes, a very short sentence can have an enormous effect on financial markets, especially if the person speaking is ECB president Mario Draghi and it is the height of the eurozone crisis. Draghi gave markets an iconic show of commitment and political will. But what did it take, and has it worked? Fidelity offers five charts which summarise the progress of the last five years, ...

  • State Street Global Advisors

    Global Market Outlook Mid-Year 2017: Upturn Goes Global (SSGA)

    This 28-page chartbook provides a visual illustration of key global economic and strategy issues. Global CIO Rick Lacaille reports that, "Mixed signals coming out of the US economy have raised questions about whether we can still confidently speak of global reflation rather than modest expansion. Still global growth for 2017 is slated to improve for the first time in three ...

    • Professional
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  • UBS Asset Management

    The reversal of U.S. QE: Everything you need to know (but were afraid to ask) UBS, June 2017

    With Quantitative Easing such a key influence on markets, we analyze why the Fed has decided the time is now right, how the Fed will reduce its holdings and the likely reactions of investors across asset classes. With the security buffer of liquidity slowly being reduced, our view is that all asset classes will gradually become more susceptible to bursts of higher volatility.