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Global Investment Outlook: Feb 2021

Reading the Tea Leaves: The February 2021 Outlook

As Joe Biden's administration is working towards fast-tracking a proposed $1.9trillion economic stimulus package in the United States, many other countries also remain engaged in fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Yet in China, the recovery has progressed to a point where less fiscal stimulus is likely to be on the table in 2021. 

February's list of investment outlook content contains multi-asset insights from leading global investment managers, as well as several lists of themes likely to be present in the coming months. Along these lines, be sure to check out Byron Wien's classic list of prognostications in his 'Ten Surprises for 2021'.

reading tea leaves


Will Biden Play ‘Two-Step Chess’ on Policy? (PineBridge Investments, Feb 2021)

To what extent will U.S. President Joe Biden be willing to compromise with Republicans in order to pass his recently introduced bill, which amounts to a new $1.9 trillion spending package.

Solving Ten Themes for 2021 (Neuberger Berman, Jan 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Neuberger Berman summarises their CIO Roundtable event, covering ten themes for 2021. For example, populism will stick around, reflation will not materialise, and the accelerated digital transformation is set to continue.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Feb 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

Eaton Vance's Monthly Market Monitor is a 44-page chartbook containing economic data points, market-related charts, and other asset class-specific information.

Capital Markets View: Global edition (MFS, Jan 2021)

After a brief introduction about Q4 2020 performance, MFS showcases their regional insights on the outlook for equity and fixed income markets.

Byron Wien: Ten surprises for 2021 (Blackstone)

Byron Wien of Blackstone Group rehashes his top 10 surprises for 2021 – a characteristic list of annual prognostications for the global investment strategist.

Macro Disruptors: Hidden themes reshaping the world (Manulife IM, Jan 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Manulife Investment Management briefly touches upon seven disruptive macro themes affecting markets in 2021. Populism and redistributive policies, for instance, will likely remain popular as economies continue to recover.

Covid-19 Deals Globalisation a Further Blow (Aviva Investors, Jan 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

One could argue that the trend towards de-globalisation has its roots in the global financial crisis of 2008, but recent nationalistic policies have been compounded by the pandemic. This is especially evident in the disruption of global supply chains and the on-shoring of certain manufacturing roles.

China to Exert Greater Financial Discipline this Year (BNP Paribas AM, Jan 2021)

Chinese leadership aims to rein in fiscal stimulus measures in 2021, reducing the amount of liquidity available to state-owned corporations. BNP Paribas Asset Management discusses the implications of this policy decision.

Change and its Long-Term Investment Implications (Capital Group, Jan 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Long-term effects of the pandemic, the rebound in economic growth, and present market valuations are discussed in this Capital Group roundtable.

WEO: Policy support and vaccines expected to lift activity (IMF, Jan 2021)

The International Monetary Fund provides an update to their World Economic Outlook, commenting on the latest economic data, vaccine updates, and policy support.

2021 Investment Insights: Making sense of a market transformed (Wells Fargo AM)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This 48-page outlook points out some of the trends that have accelerated in the past year, including: consumers shifting to e-commerce and other online activities, re-shoring and supply chain control, and continued monetary stimulus.

A Weaker Dollar and Stronger International Stocks: 7 reasons (Invesco, Jan 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

The current cycle of dollar weakening could last another four years, given these cycles' typical eight-year timespan. In this paper, Invesco presents some of the conditions that could set the stage for a weaker dollar.

The Biden Fiscal Rescue Package (Moody's Analytics, Jan 2021)

Moody's Analytics assesses the impact of the proposed fiscal support package from U.S. President Joe Biden's new administration.

Global Macro Trends: Another voice (KKR, Jan 2021)

KKR strategists present six mega macro themes, including: secular compounders/innovators, the rise of the millennials, and beneficiaries of fiscal spending.

Global Risks Report 2021 (World Economic Forum)

This report from the World Economic Forum is based upon a comprehensive risk perception survey. It describes in detail the top 10 risks on the horizon for 2021.

EMD Outlook: A year of recovery and re-risking (NN IP, Feb 2021)

Investors are likely to re-risk rather than de-risk their portfolios in 2021, which bodes well for fundamental and technical conditions in emerging markets (EM). The growth differential between EM and developed markets should also lead to increased capital flows.

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