Currency Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers
Articles and white papers on the currency markets outlook. This section includes currency research suitable for both asset allocators and currency traders - papers written from both a secular/long-term viewpoint and also a short-term/currency trading perspective. One of most popular papers, for instance, looks at the history of emerging market currency returns, while another is an analysis of the peak in global FX reserves and the implications for financial markets (quantitative tightening!). Most of the FX research in this section consists of periodic reports on the currency outlook. For instance, Scotia Bank produces an interesting document, the "Foreign Exchange Monthly Outlook", which begins by examining the market backdrop and economic fundamentals before analyzing currency charts and making currency forecasts for each of the major currency pairs. Technical analysis and trend-following techniques are arguably more appropriate for currency than for any other asset class, and the FX reports in this section (and more so in our currency "news & blogs" section) feature a lot of FX chart analysis.
This Credit Suisse paper looks at the transformative changes central banks in advanced economies have undergone since 2008. The report concludes that the key issue for decision-makers globally remains to consider which fundamental direction monetary policy ought to take next, assessing two alternative scenarios that may evolve: a return to a pre-crisis "normal", or fiscal dominance.
A bi-weekly flagship publication for institutional investors. This issue considers China economic balancing act of structural reform, economic liberalisation and financial market. It looks, specifically, at a recent announcement by the PBoC on a second adjustment (in the last 18 months) to its Foreign Exchange regime.
This is the bi-weekly flagship publication for institutional investors from BNP Paribas Investment Partners. In this issue, the authors discuss the recent U.S. dollar rally (it appreciated 25% from the second half of 2014 to the end of 2016) and the actions by global central banks. They also discuss the high expectations around U.S. corporate earnings.
Seismic geopolitical events, most notably the Trump presidency and Brexit surprises, marked 2016 as a game-changer across the global landscape, with significant implications for economies and markets. Populist politics and anti-globalization sentiment have set the stage for significant policy change in 2017 and beyond.
Recent trends suggest the Chinese authorities are allowing the Chinese yuan to depreciate against a basket of currencies in an orderly manner. We expect this trend to continue in the medium term, given the yuan’s relatively high valuation on a trade-weighted basis. Although this implies future episodes of the yuan weakening against the U.S. dollar, the speed and magnitude of ...
The PBoC has shifted its foreign exchange policy again to take advantage of the weaker dollar to depreciate the trade-weighted exchange rate while keeping the CNY-USD crossrate stable. There is a fair chance that the renminbi would then end this year by appreciating to less than 6.9 renminbi per dollar.
This study has been written by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance at the Universoty of Cambridge Judge Business School. It is their inaugural research focused on alternative payment systems and digital assets. Led by Dr Garrick Hileman, it is the first study of its kind to holistically examine the burgeoning global cryptocurrency industry and its key constituents, which ...
In Part I of this series, the author reviewed several features of reserve currency regimes: the rise of the dollar, the critical components that make up a reserve currency, and the myths that currently exist in sovereign debt analysis. In the meantime, the Chinese has demonstrated that it is beginning to understand the ...
Centrist Emmanuel Macron won a clear victory in the first round of the French presidential election, edging out runner-up Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front. They will now face off in the final round on May 7, narrowing the field after an unexpectedly tight four-horse race roiled French politics and markets..