Currency Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers
Articles and white papers on the currency markets outlook. This section includes currency research suitable for both asset allocators and currency traders - papers written from both a secular/long-term viewpoint and also a short-term/currency trading perspective. One of most popular papers, for instance, looks at the history of emerging market currency returns, while another is an analysis of the peak in global FX reserves and the implications for financial markets (quantitative tightening!). Most of the FX research in this section consists of periodic reports on the currency outlook. For instance, Scotia Bank produces an interesting document, the "Foreign Exchange Monthly Outlook", which begins by examining the market backdrop and economic fundamentals before analyzing currency charts and making currency forecasts for each of the major currency pairs. Technical analysis and trend-following techniques are arguably more appropriate for currency than for any other asset class, and the FX reports in this section (and more so in our currency "news & blogs" section) feature a lot of FX chart analysis.
This Credit Suisse paper looks at the transformative changes central banks in advanced economies have undergone since 2008. The report concludes that the key issue for decision-makers globally remains to consider which fundamental direction monetary policy ought to take next, assessing two alternative scenarios that may evolve: a return to a pre-crisis "normal", or fiscal dominance.
In the 2017 Annual Outlook report in January, we highlighted that 2017 would bring about higher growth and higher inflation. Citi analysts had preferred bonds with shorter maturities while favouring Emerging Market (EM) equities. As we look ahead to the remainder of the year, the global recovery appears on track although ...
As interest rates in the US and Europe/Japan diverge, today's climate provokes a rethink of historic decisions around currency hedging and currency management. More tactical approaches, including active currency overlays, are experiencing a revival in popularity. Meanwhile, FX management costs face closer scrutiny, with Transaction Cost Analysis coming to the fore. A 'DNA ...
A bi-weekly flagship publication for institutional investors. This issue considers China economic balancing act of structural reform, economic liberalisation and financial market. It looks, specifically, at a recent announcement by the PBoC on a second adjustment (in the last 18 months) to its Foreign Exchange regime.
This is the bi-weekly flagship publication for institutional investors from BNP Paribas Investment Partners. In this issue, the authors discuss the recent U.S. dollar rally (it appreciated 25% from the second half of 2014 to the end of 2016) and the actions by global central banks. They also discuss the high expectations around U.S. corporate earnings.
Seismic geopolitical events, most notably the Trump presidency and Brexit surprises, marked 2016 as a game-changer across the global landscape, with significant implications for economies and markets. Populist politics and anti-globalization sentiment have set the stage for significant policy change in 2017 and beyond.
Recent trends suggest the Chinese authorities are allowing the Chinese yuan to depreciate against a basket of currencies in an orderly manner. We expect this trend to continue in the medium term, given the yuan’s relatively high valuation on a trade-weighted basis. Although this implies future episodes of the yuan weakening against the U.S. dollar, the speed and magnitude of ...
The dynamics between the "Greenback" and other currencies like the euro have been changing over the past months for a variety of reasons and were quite capable of triggering exchange-rate moves. Yet, both the speed and extent of the exchange-rate moves were surprising. What may be an explanation? And how could it continue?
This 34-page paper has been produced by Standard Chartered Bank. It examines the state and outlook of the global economy and markets. It provides a helpful overview as well as detailed analysis of specific asset classes and investment strategies.
The Aviva Investors House View document is a comprehensive compilation of views and analysis from the major investment teams. The 79-page document provides a detailed and forward-looking framework for discussion among investors. Its insights into the global economic and market outlook are interesting and hepful.
The investment world seems split into two camps about markets and the economy: A bottom-up, micro view that sees a broad upturn, and a macro perspective seeing continued slow growth and very low interest rates. Who’s right?