Investment research on the markets outlook, covering the global economy and all major asset classes. Most articles in this section naturally cover the short-term (e.g. 3-12 month) outlook for economies and markets. However, the most downloaded research tends to be white papers which are educational, theoretical or long-term - more "evergreen" in nature. For instance BofAML's Transforming World Atlas looks at the global allocation of resources, while a Society of Actuaries paper surveys the literature on the impact of baby boomer retirements on future equity prices. Also popular are papers which forecast long-term investment returns over a five or ten-year time horizon. Some papers taken an even longer perspective, looking back on hundreds of year of data to draw conclusions, perhaps about commodity supercycles or long-term interest rates. These academic studies on the nature of investment markets are illuminating, and serve to complement the shorter-term perspective addressed in most investment research. In terms of the regular investment reports, the most viewed papers include the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets, the Goldman Sachs Global Equity Outlook and Standard Life's Global Outlook. To filter these papers by market interest (e.g. global economics, strategy, fixed income etc) please make the appropriate selection from the main menu.
Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power of private sector trade unions; increasing inequality ...
This report by Citi examines some of the newest concepts across sectors - e.g. big data, robotics, online retailing, etc - and identifies new products which could potentially disrupt the marketplace.
In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.
The catch is that five years is a very long time. Everyone knows this from personal experience, of course, but it is often forgotten when it comes to financial markets and economic trends. The here and now is the main focus. The purpose of the warning is simple: ...
The BlackRock Investment Institute publishes capital market assumptions every quarter. We cover two time horizons: long-term equilibrium capital markets assumptions that can be used as key inputs for strategic asset allocation, and five-year assumptions that take into account how we think current economic and market conditions will play out in the medium term.
This 97-page report has been produced by Credit Suisse. It analyses the key trends affecting long-term investing, such as geopolitics, demographic shifts, and rapid technology change. These movements provide a tangible link between today’s major developments and portfolios' risk/return profiles in the long run.
In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt ...
In a world where alpha can seem scarce, active small-cap managers continue to outperform their benchmarks in an impressive way. But why? Investors have a general sense small caps are riskier and less efficient, but how these characteristics contribute to more alpha opportunities remains unclear. At QMA, we think it’s critical to understand the sources of returns so that you ...
This edition of JP Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions is written against a backdrop of low investment return expectations, slow global growth and unprecedented monetary policy decisions. The paper considers the long-term impact of the structural factors affecting economies today on a 10 - 15 year investment horizon.
What worked well from an asset allocation perspective during the stall-speed regime is unlikely to offer strong risk-adjusted return moving forward. While academics have demonstrated that asset classes tend to maintain generally consistent Sharpe ratios over long periods, these averages may not hold true under different market regimes, which can, at times, span over several cycles. ...
This issue of "Risk & Reward" examines the theory and practice of portfolio insurance: to achieve their goals, many investors are allocating towards more risky assets. In many cases, these investors can quickly find themselves in a tight spot if the risk budget is not expanded accordingly. This is where portfolio insurance can come into play. But, which strategy ...
We have seen some surprises in global markets and economies thus far in 2017. The biggest risk to global growth – political risk in Europe – has largely been defanged, but political risk in the US and Latin America is gaining strength. Economies in China and Europe have also surprised on the upside, spurring expectations for more synchronized growth among developed ...
This paper by Willis Towers Watson takes a detailed look at the capital market outlook for the next 5 years. It discusses risk management, portfolio construction, implementation and monitoring, and more.
Secured (or securitised) bonds still carry the stigma of the 2008 financial crisis. But stigma often spells opportunity, and the fixed income specialists at RLAM argue that this asset class offers great value for managers who are prepared to get to grips with the documentation underlying individual securities. Not everyone is prepared to do this research, and as a result secured ...
Schroders Economics Group produces 30-year return forecasts, on an annual basis, for a range of asset classes. Here they outline the methodology used, which is based on a series of building blocks and estimates of risk premia, and surmise the key conclusions from our analysis. For the first time, this year they are also publishing a wider range of country-specific returns for ...
Of all the variables the new administration brings for investors one of the trickiest to plan for is inflation. Inflationary pressures were already building before the election ushered in the prospect of a sweeping agenda of pro-growth fiscal and de-regulatory policies. One common way to hedge against inflation is to diversify portfolios with exposure to real assets – ...
This excellent 59-page document from Credit Suisse considers topical themes (particularly recent monetary policy) within the context of long-run global asset returns. The document contains data for 26 countries and regions going back to 1900. It's a detailed, must read report.
This Credit Suisse paper looks at the transformative changes central banks in advanced economies have undergone since 2008. The report concludes that the key issue for decision-makers globally remains to consider which fundamental direction monetary policy ought to take next, assessing two alternative scenarios that may evolve: a return to a pre-crisis "normal", or fiscal dominance.
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. The authors of this paper find that large declines in GDP trend growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25 years in the four economies ...
Here they are! Byron Wien's ten "surprises" of 2016. Byron is something of an institution in his own right. He first listed his "10 surprises" in 1986, when he was Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Strategist.
BNP Paribas Investment Partners presents its latest views and expectations. This outlook is designed to help investors prepare for 2017 by setting the scene for a year in which a new landscape awaits: the world's largest economy is coming under new leadership and leading central banks are expected to gear up for either policy tightening ─ specifically in the US ─ or ...
