Markets Outlook

Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers

Investment research on the markets outlook, covering the global economy and all major asset classes. Most articles in this section naturally cover the short-term (e.g. 3-12 month) outlook for economies and markets. However, the most downloaded research tends to be white papers which are educational, theoretical or long-term - more "evergreen" in nature. For instance BofAML's Transforming World Atlas looks at the global allocation of resources, while a Society of Actuaries paper surveys the literature on the impact of baby boomer retirements on future equity prices. Also popular are papers which forecast long-term investment returns over a five or ten-year time horizon. Some papers taken an even longer perspective, looking back on hundreds of year of data to draw conclusions, perhaps about commodity supercycles or long-term interest rates. These academic studies on the nature of investment markets are illuminating, and serve to complement the shorter-term perspective addressed in most investment research. In terms of the regular investment reports, the most viewed papers include the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets, the Goldman Sachs Global Equity Outlook and Standard Life's Global Outlook. To filter these papers by market interest (e.g. global economics, strategy, fixed income etc) please make the appropriate selection from the main menu.
  • Bank for International Settlements

    Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends (BIS, 2017)

    Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power of private sector trade unions; increasing inequality ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 3000
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  • Citi

    Disruptive Innovations IV: Ten More Things to Stop and Think About (Citi, 2016)

    • 21 Nov 2016
    • Company: Citi

    The fourth in a series from Citi GPS, this edition examines 10 more innovative technologies and new products which are disrupting their sectors. This edition covers:

    1. Big Data Disruption - The Big Data Revolution in Energy
    2. Contextual Commerce - What is Contextual Commerce?
    3. Direct-to-Consumer Marketplace - Another Threat to ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1470
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  • Invesco US

    Invesco Global Fixed Income Study 2018

    Since the turmoil of the financial crisis, investors are navigating a great calm in fixed income markets, however, there is a sense amongst investors that the prevailing period of calm is coming to an end as central bank intervention is withdrawn and investor behaviours subsequently change. Through conducting 79 face-to-face interviews with leading fixed income specialists across ...

  • Robeco

    Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age (Robeco)

    In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.

    Robeco strategists aim not to give an accurate, detailed account of what will happen the next five years: they do not profess to know that. They present the broader trends, the averages. This publication includes special topics on secular stagnation; the ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 3866
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  • Credit Suisse

    Supertrends - Investing for the Long Term (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This 97-page report has been produced by Credit Suisse. It analyses the key trends affecting long-term investing, such as geopolitics, demographic shifts, and rapid technology change. These movements provide a tangible link between today’s major developments and portfolios' risk/return profiles in the long run.

    • Professional
    • Views: 2770
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  • World’s largest hedge fund chief: The economy looks grim in the long-term (May 2017)

    In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2040
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  • QMA

    Start of Something Big: Demystifying the Source of Large Alpha in Small Caps (QMA)

    • 24 Jan 2017
    • Company: QMA

    In a world where alpha can seem scarce, active small-cap managers continue to outperform their benchmarks in an impressive way. But why? Investors have a general sense small caps are riskier and less efficient, but how these characteristics contribute to more alpha opportunities remains unclear. At QMA, we think it’s critical to understand the sources of returns so that you ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2006
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  • Eaton Vance Management International

    Emerging Markets Local Income (EMLI) strategy: Casting the widest net in emerging-markets debt (Eaton Vance)

    In 2017, investors rediscovered their enthusiasm for emerging-markets (EM) local currency debt. With a yield in excess of 6% on the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified in 2017 as of 30 September, EM local currency debt has been the highest yielding of the major global fixed-income sectors. Total return in US dollars over the same ...

  • Fidelity International

    Outlook 2018: Time for change? (Fidelity International)

    Markets may have proved surprisingly resilient over 2017 but the clock is still ticking on the unprecedented market environment of recent years. The year ahead could see the unwinding of both the extraordinary bull-run across equities and bonds, and the global policy experiments that have underpinned this. If midnight strikes in 2018, how should investors navigate the uncertain ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1138
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  • State Street Global Advisors

    2018 Global Market Outlook (SSGA)

    Global growth is now more evenly distributed (and expected to return to its historical trend rate of 3.7%), inflation remains (so far) muted, and the coming year should be supportive for risk assets. SSGA's Global Market Outlook discusses these key themes for 2018, and how the current macroeconomical and geopolitical backdrop ought to shape portfolio positioning going forward ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2054
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  • PineBridge Investments

    The Shift to Reflation: Assessing the Impact to Portfolios (PineBridge, Sept 2017)

    What worked well from an asset allocation perspective during the stall-speed regime is unlikely to offer strong risk-adjusted return moving forward. While academics have demonstrated that asset classes tend to maintain generally consistent Sharpe ratios over long periods, these averages may not hold true under different market regimes, which can, at times, span over several cycles. ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1113
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  • Invesco (Europe)

    Risk & Reward: The Theory and Practice of Portfolio Insurance (Invesco, 2017)

    This issue of "Risk & Reward" examines the theory and practice of portfolio insurance: to achieve their goals, many investors are allocating towards more risky assets. In many cases, these investors can quickly find themselves in a tight spot if the risk budget is not expanded accordingly. This is where portfolio insurance can come into play. But, which strategy ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1264
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  • Royal London Asset Management

    Securitised Bonds: Finding Security in Bond Markets (RLAM, 2017)

    Secured (or securitised) bonds still carry the stigma of the 2008 financial crisis. But stigma often spells opportunity, and the fixed income specialists at RLAM argue that this asset class offers great value for managers who are prepared to get to grips with the documentation underlying individual securities. Not everyone is prepared to do this research, and as a result secured ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1421
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  • Schroders

    Long-run asset class performance: 30yr return forecasts (2017-46) Schroders

    Schroders Economics Group produces 30-year return forecasts, on an annual basis, for a range of asset classes. Here they outline the methodology used, which is based on a series of building blocks and estimates of risk premia, and surmise the key conclusions from our analysis. For the first time, this year they are also publishing a wider range of country-specific returns for ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2758
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  • QMA

    Some Like It Hot: Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Role of Real Assets (QMA, March 2017)

    • 13 Mar 2017
    • Company: QMA

    Of all the variables the new administration brings for investors one of the trickiest to plan for is inflation. Inflationary pressures were already building before the election ushered in the prospect of a sweeping agenda of pro-growth fiscal and de-regulatory policies. One common way to hedge against inflation is to diversify portfolios with exposure to real assets – ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1421
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  • Credit Suisse

    Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2017

    This excellent 59-page document from Credit Suisse explores a range of important investment themes (particularly recent monetary policy) within the context of long-run global asset returns. The report contains data for 26 countries and regions going back to 1900. It's a detailed, must read report.

    • Professional
    • Views: 1611
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