Investment research on the markets outlook, covering the global economy and all major asset classes. Most articles in this section naturally cover the short-term (e.g. 3-12 month) outlook for economies and markets. However, the most downloaded research tends to be white papers which are educational, theoretical or long-term - more "evergreen" in nature. For instance BofAML's Transforming World Atlas looks at the global allocation of resources, while a Society of Actuaries paper surveys the literature on the impact of... baby boomer retirements on future equity prices. Also popular are papers which forecast long-term investment returns over a five or ten-year time horizon. Some papers taken an even longer perspective, looking back on hundreds of year of data to draw conclusions, perhaps about commodity supercycles or long-term interest rates. These academic studies on the nature of investment markets are illuminating, and serve to complement the shorter-term perspective addressed in most investment research. In terms of the regular investment reports, the most viewed papers include the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets, the Goldman Sachs Global Equity Outlook and Standard Life's Global Outlook. To filter these papers by market interest (e.g. global economics, strategy, fixed income etc) please make the appropriate selection from the main menu.
Download our Expected Returns 2019-2023 report (116 pages). This publication includes our five-year investment outlook for all major asset classes. In five special features we also look at some of the tough questions professional investors face today.
This report is not available for users from countries where the…
This paper draws on the insights of an array of PGIM investment professionals—as well as leading academics and foreign policy experts—to discuss the most relevant geopolitical themes, the potential winners and losers, and the implications for investors and portfolios.
Artificial intelligence may be the most transformative and disruptive advancement since the Industrial Revolution. After decades of hype and disappointment, AI is poised to fuel the next wave of innovation, and potentially provide unprecedented opportunities for companies and investors.
Hermes discusses the supply chain for cobalt, the impact that cobalt mining can have on indigenous populations, and the increased demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries.
Since the turmoil of the financial crisis, investors are navigating a great calm in fixed income markets, however, there is a sense amongst investors that the prevailing period of calm is coming to an end as central bank intervention is withdrawn and investor behaviours subsequently change. Through conducting 79 face-to-face…
Should global growth and interest rates move durably higher, fixed income investors will need to reassess their course and look for short duration and specialized solutions. This paper sets out two growth scenarios and their impact on a wide range of fixed income assets.
In a world where alpha can seem scarce, active small-cap managers continue to outperform their benchmarks in an impressive way. But why? Investors have a general sense small caps are riskier and less efficient, but how these characteristics contribute to more alpha opportunities remains unclear. At QMA, we think it’s…
With a lackluster showing by emerging markets (EM) securities - both equity and fixed income - so far in 2018, we recently sat down with four Macquarie Investment Management portfolio managers who focus on developing market investments. The participants shared their insights and thinking on what has caused the…
Emerging markets debt has a solid risk/return profile and attractive valuations. Our research project with MIT Sloan supports the view that increasing allocations to EMD is a good idea.
While the stakes are rising, all EMs will not be impacted equally in the event of a global trade war. Find out which markets may be more insulated, and why.
BlackRock’s 2018 investment themes have been refreshed against a backdrop of steady global growth and strong corporate earnings, but rising macroeconomic uncertainty. The updated market outlook highlights key debates from BlackRock’s recent Outlook Forum, such as the implications of trade tensions.
Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, offers some important thoughts on climate change, agriculture, other problems, and the precarious situation humanity finds itself in.
eVestment analyzed the actions that U.S. public plans are taking to mitigate the downside risk from shifting and rising rates. In U.S. markets, this has resulted in a flattening yield curve and heightened awareness and anticipation of a U.S. rising rate environment.
This 23-page report by KKR asset allocators highlights why so many investors now consider China the ‘epicenter’ of global macro trends. It examines the domestic economy, foreign trade, the millennial market, and more.
The authors of this report highlight current demographic developments around the world, illuminate the complex relationship between demographics, inflation and asset prices, and present demography-based predictions for major economies, based on proprietary methodology.
As the emerging-market debt asset class continues to evolve and expand, investors are increasingly looking for strategies that are dedicated to the segment of the market denominated in local (i.e., domestic) currencies versus hard/external currencies [i.e., the US dollar (USD) or euro]. Rationales range from diversification…
Artificial intelligence (AI) may be the most transformative and disruptive advancement since the Industrial Revolution. After decades of hype and disappointment, AI is poised to fuel the next wave of innovation, and potentially provide unprecedented opportunities for companies and investors.
Financial markets have experienced another bout of volatility, this time related to an escalation in protectionism involving the U.S. and China. An escalation of such tensions towards a full-blown trade war would be very damaging for global growth and certainly for global financial markets. We therefore describe two risk…
In 2017, investors rediscovered their enthusiasm for emerging-markets (EM) local currency debt. With a yield in excess of 6% on the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified in 2017 as of 30 September, EM local currency debt has been the highest yielding of the major global fixed-income…
This excellent paper by KKR explores what population aging means for growth, investment, and social cohesion around the world. The authors addresses some of the economic implications of aging, the levers countries may pull to counteract these challenges, and the investment opportunities that arise as a result.
