Markets Outlook

Markets Outlook - Articles & White Papers

Investment research on the markets outlook, covering the global economy and all major asset classes. Most articles in this section naturally cover the short-term (e.g. 3-12 month) outlook for economies and markets. However, the most downloaded research tends to be white papers which are educational, theoretical or long-term - more "evergreen" in nature. For instance BofAML's Transforming World Atlas looks at the global allocation of resources, while a Society of Actuaries paper surveys the literature on the impact of baby boomer retirements on future equity prices. Also popular are papers which forecast long-term investment returns over a five or ten-year time horizon. Some papers taken an even longer perspective, looking back on hundreds of year of data to draw conclusions, perhaps about commodity supercycles or long-term interest rates. These academic studies on the nature of investment markets are illuminating, and serve to complement the shorter-term perspective addressed in most investment research. In terms of the regular investment reports, the most viewed papers include the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets, the Goldman Sachs Global Equity Outlook and Standard Life's Global Outlook. To filter these papers by market interest (e.g. global economics, strategy, fixed income etc) please make the appropriate selection from the main menu.
  • Robeco

    Expected Returns 2017-2021: It’s Always Darkest Just Before Dawn (Robeco, Oct 2016)

    Sentiment among professional investors seems to have reached new lows, and truly, there are enough reasons investors can think of to justify a bearish view on financial markets. We can see the disintegration of the European economy (Brexit, the rise of populist parties, Italian banks), a Chinese hard landing (unsuccessful rebalancing of the Chinese economy, high debt), a rise in ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 5696
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  • BlackRock

    Equity/Bond Correlation: Historical Reflections and Future Prospects (BlackRock, July 2016)

    The correlation between equity and bond markets is of vital importance to asset allocators; for risk control and portfolio construction, for assessing the market outlook, and for building models of how markets work (equity market valuation models, for example). In this 6-page paper, Nuno Luis and David Caplan of BlackRock examine the history of the equity/bond ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 2026
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  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    BNP Paribas Investment Outlook 2017: Beyond the shadow of quantitative easing

    BNP Paribas Investment Partners presents its latest views and expectations. This outlook is designed to help investors prepare for 2017 by setting the scene for a year in which a new landscape awaits: the world's largest economy is coming under new leadership and leading central banks are expected to gear up for either policy tightening ─ specifically in the US ─ or ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1167
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  • QMA (Quantitative Management Associates)

    Start of Something Big: Demystifying the Source of Large Alpha in Small Caps (QMA)

    In a world where alpha can seem scarce, active small-cap managers continue to outperform their benchmarks in an impressive way. But why? Investors have a general sense small caps are riskier and less efficient, but how these characteristics contribute to more alpha opportunities remains unclear. At QMA, we think it’s critical to understand the sources of returns so that you ...

  • T. Rowe Price

    Global Equities: The Changing Face of Value (T. Rowe Price, Nov 2016)

    For many value investors, the last few years have proved to be a challenging period given a backdrop of low growth, structural change in China, elevated macroeconomic risks, and bouts of volatility. This environment has led to a dominance of growth and quality factors, creating a meaningful headwind for value-oriented stocks.

  • JP Morgan - Asset Management

    2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan)

    This edition of JP Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions is written against a backdrop of low investment return expectations, slow global growth and unprecedented monetary policy decisions. The paper considers the long-term impact of the structural factors affecting economies today on a 10 - 15 year investment horizon. 

    The detailed 90 page document ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1152
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  • PineBridge Investments

    2017 Mid-Year Outlook: Great Expectations for Global Growth (PineBridge, June 2017)

    We have seen some surprises in global markets and economies thus far in 2017. The biggest risk to global growth – political risk in Europe – has largely been defanged, but political risk in the US and Latin America is gaining strength. Economies in China and Europe have also surprised on the upside, spurring expectations for more synchronized growth among developed ...

  • Invesco (Europe)

    John Greenwood Quarterly Economic Outlook (Invesco, Q2 2017)

    US equity markets have so far reacted positively to the early days of Trump’s presidency but is the “reflation trade” now losing momentum? Will further hikes in US interest rates derail the global upswing? John Greenwood, Chief Economist at Invesco discusses the macro economic outlook for the rest 2017 and beyond, sharing his insights on: - the outlook of the US ...

  • Royal London Asset Management

    Securitised Bonds: Finding Security in Bond Markets (RLAM, 2017)

    Secured (or securitised) bonds still carry the stigma of the 2008 financial crisis. But stigma often spells opportunity, and the fixed income specialists at RLAM argue that this asset class offers great value for managers who are prepared to get to grips with the documentation underlying individual securities. Not everyone is prepared to do this research, and as a result secured ...

  • World’s largest hedge fund chief: The economy looks grim in the long-term (May 2017)

    In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1459
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  • BNP Paribas Asset Management

    The Future of Emerging Market Equities (BNP Paribas, April 2017)

    Investors have been dismayed by the under-performance of emerging market (EM) equities compared to developed market (DM) equities over the last several years. Is the recent rebound in relative performance structural or just temporary mean reversion? Many worry that the end of the commodity super-cycle and the slowdown in China signal lacklustre results for emerging market equities ...

  • William Blair

    Emerging Markets Outlook for 2017: Risks Remain, But There Are Reasons for Optimism (William Blair, Mar 2017)

    The past 12 months have been fairly turbulent in emerging markets, but a number of factors support emerging market performance. Valuations are attractive. Corporate earnings have improved. External imbalances are better than they were in previous periods of stress. The Chinese macro environment has stabilized. Commodity prices are supportive. Stronger growth in developed markets ...

  • Schroders

    Long-run asset class performance: 30yr return forecasts (2017-46) Schroders

    Schroders Economics Group produces 30-year return forecasts, on an annual basis, for a range of asset classes. Here they outline the methodology used, which is based on a series of building blocks and estimates of risk premia, and surmise the key conclusions from our analysis. For the first time, this year they are also publishing a wider range of country-specific returns for ...

    • Professional
    • Views: 1604
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  • QMA (Quantitative Management Associates)

    Some Like It Hot: Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Role of Real Assets (QMA, March 2017)

    Of all the variables the new administration brings for investors one of the trickiest to plan for is inflation. Inflationary pressures were already building before the election ushered in the prospect of a sweeping agenda of pro-growth fiscal and de-regulatory policies. One common way to hedge against inflation is to diversify portfolios with exposure to real assets – ...

  • Credit Suisse

    Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2017

    This excellent 59-page document from Credit Suisse considers topical themes (particularly recent monetary policy) within the context of long-run global asset returns. The document contains data for 26 countries and regions going back to 1900. It's a detailed, must read report.

  • T. Rowe Price

    2017 Global Market Outlook (T. Rowe Price)

    Modest global growth and uncertainty about the pace of rising interest rates require a selective eye when it comes to making investment decisions. This outlook paper by T. Rowe Price discusses how its professionals are navigating the new landscape as they help clients get on the right side of change.

  • Credit Suisse

    The Future of Monetary Policy (Credit Suisse, 2017)

    This Credit Suisse paper looks at the transformative changes central banks in advanced economies have undergone since 2008. The report concludes that the key issue for decision-makers globally remains to consider which fundamental direction monetary policy ought to take next, assessing two alternative scenarios that may evolve: a return to a pre-crisis "normal", or fiscal dominance.