Investment research on the markets outlook, covering the global economy and all major asset classes. Most articles in this section naturally cover the short-term (e.g. 3-12 month) outlook for economies and markets. However, the most downloaded research tends to be white papers which are educational, theoretical or long-term - more "evergreen" in nature. For instance BofAML's Transforming World Atlas looks at the global allocation of resources, while a Society of Actuaries paper surveys the literature on the impact of... baby boomer retirements on future equity prices. Also popular are papers which forecast long-term investment returns over a five or ten-year time horizon. Some papers taken an even longer perspective, looking back on hundreds of year of data to draw conclusions, perhaps about commodity supercycles or long-term interest rates. These academic studies on the nature of investment markets are illuminating, and serve to complement the shorter-term perspective addressed in most investment research. In terms of the regular investment reports, the most viewed papers include the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets, the Goldman Sachs Global Equity Outlook and Standard Life's Global Outlook. To filter these papers by market interest (e.g. global economics, strategy, fixed income etc) please make the appropriate selection from the main menu.
Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power…
The latest JP Morgan quarterly "Guide to the Markets" is a bumper 80-page report, packed with charts and tables, illustrating global economic trends, and examining the key drivers of equity and fixed income markets for the period ahead. The accompanying "quarterly perspectives" report is a "guide to the guide".
This paper draws on the insights of an array of PGIM investment professionals—as well as leading academics and foreign policy experts—to discuss the most relevant geopolitical themes, the potential winners and losers, and the implications for investors and portfolios.
Artificial intelligence may be the most transformative and disruptive advancement since the Industrial Revolution. After decades of hype and disappointment, AI is poised to fuel the next wave of innovation, and potentially provide unprecedented opportunities for companies and investors.
Hermes discusses the supply chain for cobalt, the impact that cobalt mining can have on indigenous populations, and the increased demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries.
Since the turmoil of the financial crisis, investors are navigating a great calm in fixed income markets, however, there is a sense amongst investors that the prevailing period of calm is coming to an end as central bank intervention is withdrawn and investor behaviours subsequently change. Through conducting 79 face-to-face…
Should global growth and interest rates move durably higher, fixed income investors will need to reassess their course and look for short duration and specialized solutions. This paper sets out two growth scenarios and their impact on a wide range of fixed income assets.
In this 106-page document, Robeco presents its forecasts for the 5-year expected returns for all major asset classes.
Robeco strategists aim not to give an accurate, detailed account of what will happen the next five years: they do not profess to know that. They present the broader trends, the averages. This…
This 97-page report has been produced by Credit Suisse. It analyses the key trends affecting long-term investing, such as geopolitics, demographic shifts, and rapid technology change. These movements provide a tangible link between today’s major developments and portfolios' risk/return profiles in the long run.
In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates discusses the near- and long-term prospects for the global economy. The near term looks good because the economy is now at or near its best, and there no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two. The long-term looks scary because there are significant…
In a world where alpha can seem scarce, active small-cap managers continue to outperform their benchmarks in an impressive way. But why? Investors have a general sense small caps are riskier and less efficient, but how these characteristics contribute to more alpha opportunities remains unclear. At QMA, we think it’s…
Emerging markets debt has a solid risk/return profile and attractive valuations. Our research project with MIT Sloan supports the view that increasing allocations to EMD is a good idea.
A decade after the worst of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Nathan Sheets, PhD, former director of the Division of International Finance for the Federal Reserve Board, looks back at the instability of the global financial system and details the role of the Federal Reserve as the international lender of last resort.…
As the summer of 2018 draws to a close, our minds turn back to the financial crisis of a decade ago. Those events were so momentous in their impact on the global financial markets, economy and society that we still feel the aftershocks today. Investors and policymakers are still grappling with the effects of the crisis and…
BlackRock’s 2018 investment themes have been refreshed against a backdrop of steady global growth and strong corporate earnings, but rising macroeconomic uncertainty. The updated market outlook highlights key debates from BlackRock’s recent Outlook Forum, such as the implications of trade tensions.
eVestment analyzed the actions that U.S. public plans are taking to mitigate the downside risk from shifting and rising rates. In U.S. markets, this has resulted in a flattening yield curve and heightened awareness and anticipation of a U.S. rising rate environment.
This 23-page report by KKR asset allocators highlights why so many investors now consider China the ‘epicenter’ of global macro trends. It examines the domestic economy, foreign trade, the millennial market, and more.
The authors of this report highlight current demographic developments around the world, illuminate the complex relationship between demographics, inflation and asset prices, and present demography-based predictions for major economies, based on proprietary methodology.
As the emerging-market debt asset class continues to evolve and expand, investors are increasingly looking for strategies that are dedicated to the segment of the market denominated in local (i.e., domestic) currencies versus hard/external currencies [i.e., the US dollar (USD) or euro]. Rationales range from diversification…
Artificial intelligence (AI) may be the most transformative and disruptive advancement since the Industrial Revolution. After decades of hype and disappointment, AI is poised to fuel the next wave of innovation, and potentially provide unprecedented opportunities for companies and investors.
