Investment research on the markets outlook, covering the global economy and all major asset classes. Most articles in this section naturally cover the short-term (e.g. 3-12 month) outlook for economies and markets. However, the most downloaded research tends to be white papers which are educational, theoretical or long-term - more "evergreen" in nature. For instance BofAML's Transforming World Atlas looks at the global allocation of resources, while a Society of Actuaries paper surveys the literature on the impact of... baby boomer retirements on future equity prices. Also popular are papers which forecast long-term investment returns over a five or ten-year time horizon. Some papers taken an even longer perspective, looking back on hundreds of year of data to draw conclusions, perhaps about commodity supercycles or long-term interest rates. These academic studies on the nature of investment markets are illuminating, and serve to complement the shorter-term perspective addressed in most investment research. In terms of the regular investment reports, the most viewed papers include the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets, the Goldman Sachs Global Equity Outlook and Standard Life's Global Outlook. To filter these papers by market interest (e.g. global economics, strategy, fixed income etc) please make the appropriate selection from the main menu.
The 2019 edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions draws on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide. Refined and expanded over 23 years, our in-depth, proprietary process provides 10- to 15-year risk and return projections for more than 50 strategy and…
Download our Expected Returns 2019-2023 report (116 pages). This publication includes our five-year investment outlook for all major asset classes. In five special features we also look at some of the tough questions professional investors face today.
This report is not available for users from countries where the…
Market volatility looks set to recur in 2019 as familiar factors such as tensions over international trade, diverging geopolitical views and a shift in monetary policy towards higher interest rates again roil investor sentiment. Beyond these known aspects, though, regime change is on the cards: two bull markets – the 30-year…
The authors of this report highlight current demographic developments around the world, illuminate the complex relationship between demographics, inflation and asset prices, and present demography-based predictions for major economies, based on proprietary methodology.
This paper draws on the insights of an array of PGIM investment professionals—as well as leading academics and foreign policy experts—to discuss the most relevant geopolitical themes, the potential winners and losers, and the implications for investors and portfolios.
Artificial intelligence may be the most transformative and disruptive advancement since the Industrial Revolution. After decades of hype and disappointment, AI is poised to fuel the next wave of innovation, and potentially provide unprecedented opportunities for companies and investors.
Hermes discusses the supply chain for cobalt, the impact that cobalt mining can have on indigenous populations, and the increased demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries.
Since the turmoil of the financial crisis, investors are navigating a great calm in fixed income markets, however, there is a sense amongst investors that the prevailing period of calm is coming to an end as central bank intervention is withdrawn and investor behaviours subsequently change. Through conducting 79 face-to-face…
Should global growth and interest rates move durably higher, fixed income investors will need to reassess their course and look for short duration and specialized solutions. This paper sets out two growth scenarios and their impact on a wide range of fixed income assets.
In a world where alpha can seem scarce, active small-cap managers continue to outperform their benchmarks in an impressive way. But why? Investors have a general sense small caps are riskier and less efficient, but how these characteristics contribute to more alpha opportunities remains unclear. At QMA, we think it’s…
Report by CFA Institute and Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) highlights Best Practices in ESG integration across EMEA.
This best-practice report contains guidance on ESG integration in equity and fixed-income investments and case studies on how ESG integration is “done” by leading practitioners. This …
Recent proprietary research has revealed that there are a surprisingly large number of stocks with a positive impact – almost 3,000 out of the 15,000 in our chosen universe (the CS HOLT database). This is partially explained by expanding the universe to include small caps. Our results reveal that, contrary to conventional…
National security concerns have begun to color US/China trade talks, raising the geopolitical stakes and the potential for market volatility. We explore what’s increasing the tensions and suggest which market segments may benefit or suffer from this great-power struggle.
Populist movements will force companies to rethink their purpose over the next decade. For that change to be meaningful, stakeholders will have to work together in an uneasy truce, guided by more forceful boards. This makes big leaps unlikely, but there is now enough momentum to move the dial permanently, from shareholder…
Among other things, this 39-page issue of Risk & Reward examines how to implement a multi-factor commodity strategy. Factor investing research to date has generally focused on equities. However, based on the results of this research, factor investing in commodities appears to offer the potential to extend the asset class…
The bright economic picture is expected to be overshadowed by concerns that this long bull market will soon end. Fueling these fears are issues such as rising interest rates, protectionism, Italy and Brexit. Investors would be well-advised to prepare for these concerns becoming reality. However, the bull market has caused a…
With a lackluster showing by emerging markets (EM) securities - both equity and fixed income - so far in 2018, we recently sat down with four Macquarie Investment Management portfolio managers who focus on developing market investments. The participants shared their insights and thinking on what has caused the…
Emerging markets debt has a solid risk/return profile and attractive valuations. Our research project with MIT Sloan supports the view that increasing allocations to EMD is a good idea.
While the stakes are rising, all EMs will not be impacted equally in the event of a global trade war. Find out which markets may be more insulated, and why.
Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, offers some important thoughts on climate change, agriculture, other problems, and the precarious situation humanity finds itself in.
