Fixed Income and Treasury - Articles & White Papers

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Welcome to terra incognita, a new era in which the certainties that a generation of investors have grown so used to have started to crumble before our very eyes. Confusion has taken center stage on financial markets.

Total global debt reached a record high of $306 trillion in the first quarter of 2022, led by a surge in several emerging markets, as well as China and the United States, according to the Institute for International Finance. By the third quarter, it had dropped to $290 trillion but this remains a very high level. When debt…

The search for ‘all weather' asset classes that can reliably deliver income and returns in an inflationary, higher rate environment and protect capital in more challenging markets is perennial. Discover how the dynamic and diversified private credit asset universe could offer relative resilience compared to traditional asset…

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between biodiversity and companies, through the lens of corporate bonds. We focus on acute biodiversity events and address biodiversity as a risk, considering its looming losses. We illustrate the material and tangible operational risk that may arise from biodiversity losses and…

Hybrid characteristics provide attractive risk/reward profile.

Our analysis of market pricing finds no evidence the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the corporate bond market have had an ongoing impact on US credit spreads. In the eurozone, where ECB intervention started four years earlier and has a firm mandate, there is some evidence of an impact, but it is less than conclusive.

Real returns on equities and multi-asset portfolios are typically poor when inflation is high, especially in times of stagflation. Factor returns, on the other hand, are relatively insensitive to inflation cycles; hence they diversify asset class returns across various inflation buckets.

Despite a challenging macro environment with elevated inflation and a looming recession, the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team has a constructive fixed income outlook. Fixed Income Views presents the team’s first-quarter 2023 outlook.

Brandywine Global: A complicated, fragmented world adds to the heightened uncertainty over what next year may bring for markets. Our top macroeconomic and investment experts offer their outlooks for 2023.

Multi-decade highs in inflation have resulted in one of the most challenging market conditions during this century. With tighter global monetary policy leading to more restrictive financial conditions, we have seen record losses across major equity and fixed income markets amidst a sustained period of heightened volatility…

For over a decade, including through COVID-19, the tide of capital has flowed mostly in one direction: into markets. That’s because since the Great Recession of 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low. Public credit, both loans and bonds, benefited from this support. But as we look ahead to 2023, it is…

We present three investment themes alongside this Global Outlook chartbook: 1. central bank overtightening makes a recession foretold, in our view. What matters: the pricing of economic damage and our assessment of market risk sentiment. 2. We see higher yields as a gift to investors long starved of income in bonds. And…

We believe that corporate bond yields are close to an inflection point, with the high levels of yields achievable providing a buffer to further yield rises. In short – the corporate bond is back.

Inflation is back, and in a big way. While the years following the global financial crisis were characterized by central banks persistently undershooting their inflation targets despite a range of measures designed to engineer a return to 2%, the immediate aftermath of the latest crisis (COVID-19) brought resurgent…