Global economy: Between two rates

Look into the latest insights on inflation, growth, and CB rates

The global economy remains plagued by uncertainty surrounding the direction of inflationary forces, central bank policy, and growth rates. Explore this selection of relevant commentary from global asset managers and institutions into these factors that are shaping the global economy.

On global inflation

Sixty Years of Global Inflation: A Post-GFC Update (BIS)

To what extent has the recent inflation experience been a global phenomenon? This paper explores this highly relevant question in detail.

Measurement and Theory of Core Inflation (FRBNY)

This paper offers a framework to organize the definition and the measurement of core inflation as an indicator of inflation persistence.

Drivers of the Post-Pandemic Inflation and Interest Rates (VoxEU)

Demand shocks were the primary driver of post-pandemic increases in interest rates on average. What role did supply shocks play?

On global economic growth

The Changing Role of the U.S. Dollar (Brookings Institution)

The dollar plays a major role in global trade. As of 2022, the dollar is used in 54% of foreign trade invoices globally.

Applied Philosophy Strategist from East of the Elbe Q4 2024 (Invesco)

This report focuses on the Central-Eastern European economies and their financial markets, providing expectations for future returns from equities and fixed income.

Central Banks and the Green Economy (CFA Institute Research & Policy Center)

Recognizing climate change is a considerable financial hazard, the Fed initially took a research-focused approach before moving toward policy initiatives.

On global interest rates

Asia to Benefit from U.S. Rate-Cut Cycle (BNP Paribas AM)

Since inflation in Asia is lower than in many major developed economies, the beginning of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle leaves regional central banks well positioned to follow suit.

U.S. Economy Poised for a Soft Landing. What Comes Next? (Capital Group)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

If the economy does land softly in the current quarter, it could bear some similarities to the end of another aggressive Fed tightening cycle in early 1995.

Risk Perceptions on Yen Interest Rates and Exchange Rates (Bank of Japan)

Implied probability distributions represent the risk perceptions of option market participants and are not necessarily strong predictors of future price movements.