Fixed income markets embrace uncertainty

On all things fixed income

The fixed income universe has faced high levels of uncertainty since Donald Trump started his second term as president at the start of this year. This selection of timely research provides actionable insights on private debt, real estate, and more.

The Convergence of Public and Private Credit (PGIM)

Private credit growth has been built on two pillars: growing demand for corporate lending and an expanding footprint reaching a broader array of assets.

Sourcing Social Bonds: The Case for U.S. Munis (Nuveen)

Sourcing investments aligned with a social good can be a challenge. The opportunity set is small if an investor only considers securities clearly labeled as “social.”

Fixed Income Perspectives Q2 2025 (Capital Group)

Uncertainty surrounding the impact of the White House's policies weighed on markets in recent weeks, including the implementation and reversal of tariffs, among other things.

Bond Market Insights: April 2025 (Invesco)

The risks of aggressive U.S. policy changes and potentially slower global growth support bonds globally, except in Japan, where bond yields are expected to continue rising.

Is Direct Lender Optimism Camouflaging Problem Loans? (Adams Street)

Periods of inflation and rising rates are followed by a rise in defaults and bankruptcies of levered companies, which in turn widens return dispersion of direct lending funds.

Why Private Real Estate Lending Is Compelling Now (Brookfield)

Today, interest rates are double the trailing five-year average, while real estate spreads remain elevated. Additionally, lower property values provide an attractive entry basis for lenders.

“Chekhov’s Gun” (Convexity Maven)

Since the Federal Reserve abandoned it policies of NIRP and QE and began a “data-driven” hiking cycle of interest rates in 2021, the MOVE Index has ranged from 100 to 140.

Duration: Friend or Foe in a Defensive Allocation? (Firstlinks)

More so than the last few years, fixed rate bonds today are well placed to provide this diversification within an equity dominated portfolio.

Global or Regional Safe Assets: Evidence from Bond Substitution Patterns (BIS)

International bond markets play a key role in the transmission of monetary policy both domestically and internationally.

Steepening Curves across the Board (Candriam)

The bond markets in March were already abuzz with talk of tariffs as the Trump administration implemented previously delayed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: When Market Outgrows the Index (TCW)

Recent fixed income volatility highlights the limitations of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. However, the bond market is bigger than this index.

Has the Credit Market Peaked? (Natixis IM)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

Interest rates should evolve in a higher and wider range, with more volatility for fixed income investors.

Actionable Alternatives: Residential Credit (PIMCO)

What are the drivers behind residential credit? In this engaging video, PIMCO explores these forces in detail.