Watch Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Ph.D., Vanguard Chief Economist for the Americas and Global Head of Portfolio Construction, and Andrew J. Patterson, CFA, Senior International Economist, conduct a live discussion on:

• Where the global economy and capital markets might be headed
• Why rates across the globe are…

Our 2024 expectations for annualised returns over the next 20 years are a mixed bag. Strong gains across markets over the past year have tempered our expected returns for equities relative to our 2023 outlook. On the other hand, higher starting yields translate into improved expectations versus last year across many fixed…

Every year we review the data that drive capital markets—current valuation measures, historical risk premia, economic growth and inflation prospects—to provide the foundation for our forecasts. We update the models that we use and review their continued appropriateness. Crucially, our models are based on first-principle…

This white paper is the fourth in a five-paper series. It introduces a radical new perspective on equities, thinking of them as one would of any high-end consumer good. This change in perspective enables us to demonstrate that income inequality is a hidden driver of equity prices, and also allows us to…

Across a diverse set of global equities and multiple market capitalizations, we conducted an analysis of 32 distinct long-only factors, including momentum, value, growth, quality, and the market. Notably, momentum demonstrated exceptional performance, surpassing the respective market return in 100% of the samples.…

The U.S. equity market is the largest and deepest in the world. As such, it has been analyzed in many ways to determine the optimal means of gaining exposure. Mawer IM experts suggest that a blend of large and mid-caps may offer an effective solution.

Be it deglobalisation, digitalisation, demographics or decarbonisation, disruption is in full swing wherever you look. It is also a long-term, structural phenomenon. These drivers of transformation are also likely to have an impact in 2024. Then there are the current (geo)political, macroeconomic and monetary policy…

We identify trends in the green economy, including its size, growth and performance; diversification across sectors and countries; green investment and new geopolitics.

Navigate the risks and opportunities ahead with our 2023 portfolio manager outlooks hub.

When looking for a strategy to perform best at the extreme ends of market returns, investors often turn to guaranteed but expensive put and call options to provide convex returns. The multi-asset nature of trend-following helps provide much-needed diversification to a tail hedging strategy – not least in an environment where…

China has emerged from the coronavirus pandemic with renewed confidence after it was one of the first countries to achieve positive growth post-Covid. The way in which China contained the virus, and how rapidly the Chinese economy recovered, has impressed institutional and private investors alike. The swift recovery and…

A potential outperformance for the Chinese equity market in the quarters ahead could reward investors who overweight emerging-market equities.

A look how statistical models can be used with fundamental models to understand concentration risk in U.S. equity indices.

Despite elevated valuations, we see compelling long-term investment opportunities across Indian equities.

Despite the challenges of the past two years, international markets show promise–especially for stock pickers. Is the U.S. stronghold about to shift?

Aurum's 2023 hedge fund industry deep dive is now available, providing insights and analysis on industry performance, dispersion, asset flows and fees. Five-year asset-weighted net performance (CAR) for hedge funds now stands at 6.5%, comfortably outperforming bonds (-0.4%) but underperforming equities (+9.4%) from a total…

Small caps remain relatively cheap. Companies in the Russell 2000 are trading at 15.2 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, which is below the 10-year average of 16.7, according to FTSE Russell. The large-cap index’s multiple is 19.6.

Can earnings manufacture more upside for U.S. equities? In the wake of a strong global equity market rally in the final two months of 2023, the fourth quarter earnings season for S&P 500 Index companies may be telling as to whether the next move for U.S. stocks is a leg up or a leg down.

We remain positioned for a recovery in the global cycle, while the United States has moved back from an expansion to a recovery phase due to decline in leading indicators back to below-trend levels. Growth outside the US continues to improve while inflation declines.