The quarterly Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Outlook for Q2 2024: We continue to expect the United States to enter a recession in 2024; fundamentals of consumers and housing remain strong; commercial real estate fundamentals are generally stable outside the office sector.
The ideal scenario for credit appears to be materializing, characterized by declining inflation and the likely avoidance of a recession. However, have market participants grown complacent, with risk appetite reaching high levels?
Our baseline forecast continues to incorporate a recession as we remain cautious about the economy. Although aggregate economic and labor market indicators continue to be strong, we are concerned about high consumer loan delinquencies, creeping unemployment, and affordability, all of which are potential headwinds to growth…
MetLife IM now expects the U.S. economy to avoid a recession in 2024. Businesses are emerging as a backstop – largely due to high and rising profit margins, a manufacturing rebound and a resilient services sector. However, MetLife does remain somewhat concerned about the strength of the consumer. Find out why in the latest…
Global equities rallied further in Q1 2024, despite an aggressive repricing of interest rate expectations. Although economic data remained more robust than expected, especially in the U.S., market breadth decreased, and mega-caps outperformed. PGIM expects global growth to moderate from current levels in the near term (…
Pablo Calderini, President and CIO, discusses a variety of themes including: the recession that was not, global growth, equity valuations and the Magnificent 7, Japan and USD/JPY, and geopolitics.
The markets have been so fixated on forecasting a recession and ensuing rate cuts that they have ignored an abundance of data pointing to the early stages of a manufacturing-led expansion. It appears the market may have been mispriced amid the Federal Reserve (Fed) emphasizing price stability, a resilient U.S. economy, and…
The following paper presents three reasons for each side as to whether the U.S. may enter or avoid a recession in 2024, as well as recessionary implications across asset classes.
The yield curve is inverted, implying an imminent recession, but the stock market is at or near record highs. What can we make of these contradictory signals?
Despite fluctuating post-pandemic interest rates, the U.S. economy has shown unexpected resilience. Contrary to predictions of a possible recession the U.S. economy continues to show signs of economic growth.