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Trump: The New Era of Reflation and Risk

Investing in a new era: is it time for investors to pivot?

Early comments from President Trump, following his inauguration, seem to underscore the protectionist tone of his policy agenda. In recent decades, the steady globalisation of the world economy has helped to keep inflation low. Will "Trumponomics" and the growth of populism around the world lead to a pick-up in inflation?

How should asset allocators position their portfolios for a reflationary environment? Has the sharp increase in bond yields since the election been enough to reflect the economic and geopolitical risks of this new era? The Savvy Research team has curated some of the best recent papers that tackle these questions.

Trump Era Reflation and Risk Statue of Liberty

Global Macro Outlook: Waking up to reflation (BlackRock, Jan 2017)
BlackRock's Macro GPS uses big data signals to provide a handle on the economic growth outlook.

Global Equities: Hope Trumping Reality? (T. Rowe Price, Jan 2017)
The results of democratic contests in the past year speak to a repudiation of QE and central banks, even if voters might not describe it as such. What will the consequences for global equities be?

2017 Outlook - Investing in a New Era: Reflation, Rotation and Risks (Citi)
This 30-page paper by Citi Private Bank looks at the economic and investment prospects for the year ahead across 8 key categories.

Rebound and Reflation in the Global Economy (Gavyn Davies, Dec 2016)
The latest Fulcrum Asset Management nowcasts show the highest growth rates in global activity since 2011. Gavyn Davies explores this further detail.

Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 - Growth and Inflation: A New Narrative (Pioneer)
The authors of this paper believe that a new economic growth and inflation narrative will dominate the next 12 months. They consider the global macro and regional outlooks.

Outlook for 2017: Paradigm Shift (KKR, Jan 2017)
Donald Trump's rise to the US Presidency confirms a political and economic paradigm shift, a shift that started with Brexit but is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

The worrying macro-economics of US border taxes (Gavyn Davies, Jan 2017)
In this research note, Gavyn Davies of Fulcrum Asset Management explains possible new "border taxes" in the US which are likely to run counter to WTO regulations, and could lead to trade retaliation by other countries.

2017 Investment Themes: A Wind of Change (Citi, Jan 2017)
A wind of change is sweeping through politics, economics and markets and it threatens to bring with it a new direction for economies and financial markets. This Citi paper explores further.

Q1 2017 Outlook & Review (QMA, Jan 2017)
This quarterly market perspective from QMA's Asset Allocation Group looks at the year ahead.