20 Top Papers from November 2019

Popular and Trending Papers of November 2019: Helping you sort the wood from the trees! 

This month's collection of Top Papers are a somewhat eclectic mix encompassing a diverse range of topics, including the investment prospects for some African countries, while other pieces outline challenges faced by the asset management industry. Mega-trend opportunities within the Asia-Pacific region also feature.

As we race towards the end of the year, investment houses are publishing both shorter and long-term forecasts; among the more popular are those on Capital Market Assumptions, which asset allocators may find of some interest. Please note that some papers may not be available in all locations as they have a restricted geographical distribution. But do not despair, as Savvy Investor has collated a resource of over 10,000 other white papers, so you are sure to find something of interest.

  

Factor Investing: Research and Investment Strategies (Invesco, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

The Jubilee edition of Invesco’s Risk and Reward magazine collates extracts from their thought leadership over the last 30 years, featuring their quantitative heritage and how that is applicable to the world of factor investing.

Benchmarking the Value of Indexes Among Active Managers (FTSE Russell/Greenwich Associates, 2019)

FTSE Russell examines how index providers are viewed by the asset management industry and suggests avenues that managers can use, perhaps working in collaboration with index providers, to extract ‘best value’ from the data, analytical insights and partnership they offer.

Quantitative Science - Actively adding to fixed income decisions (Franklin Templeton, 2019)

In this paper, Franklin Templeton outlines their 'active quant' approach to fixed income investing, which employs factor investing in conjuction with machine learning and an 'active' management overlay.

African Capital Markets: Challenges and Opportunities (CFA Institute Research Foundation, 2019)

The CFA Institute presents a compendium of papers prepared in collaboration with the African Securities Exchanges Association (ASEA), which provides insights into the investment prospects for 10 African countries. Writers in each market offer their interpretation of how changes to financial technology, regulation and expanding local access are revolutionising the opportunities both for individual markets and the continent itself

Podcast: China A-shares and a diversified portfolio (BMO GAM, Nov 2019)

BMO GAM’s June Lui explores ways in which investors might wish to incorporate China into portfolios, particularly now that China-A shares are included in both FTSE Russell and MSCI indices and country weightings are being revised.

Capturing the Asian century: tapping into Asia’s growth (Manulife IM, Jun 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

In Manulife’s recent report, they examine the key economic metrics which underlie the growth potential in Asia, and how recent reforms have made the region more investable.

U.S. DB dilemma: How do investment decisions affect stock returns? (Wellington, 2019)

Wellington investigates what effects the de-risking of company pension plans has amongst the investment community. Are companies rewarded for taking the ‘sensible’ option - and do investors ’look-through’ any temporary negative impact on company earnings?

Productivity: the key to solving Japan’s ‘age-old’ issue (Capital Group, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Capital Group argues that after years of under-investment, Japanese corporates are beginning to see the upside in capital deployment towards technology and a more highly skilled workforce. This should aid productivity growth. Changes in corporate governance regulations may also increase Japan’s relative investment appeal.

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions - USD (Invesco)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco presents its long-term forecasts for the major asset classes; estimates are designed with a 10-year investment time horizon and are provided to guide strategic asset allocations. Capital Market Assumptions and recent changes to return estimates are also included.

Q4 2019 Capital Market Assumptions (QMA)

In this paper, QMA offers their long term, (10-year) Capital Market Assumptions for the major asset classes.

In search of a free lunch (Aviva Investors blog, Nov 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Aviva Investors discuss their interpretation of how a decade of easy monetary policy has led to changing correlations between and within asset classes and illustrate the way in which this has affected their approach to asset management.

Q4 2019 Capital Markets View (MFS IM)

In their Q4 Capital Markets View, MFS’s Investment Solutions Group analyses investment multiples for equity markets, offers a brief insight into global monetary policy, while also providing a strategic outlook for the major asset classes.

Volatility, fixed income, and other investment head-scratchers (Wellington, Nov 2019)

Wellington's Multi-Asset Strategist, Adam Berger shares his market observations, aided with insights from research drawn from across the company.

The Next Recession (Moody's, Nov 2019)

Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi shares his thoughts about the likelihood of a potential U.S. recession, probable policy responses and offers an opinion on how deep any potential recession may get.

Think: Asia Pacific cities in tomorrow's world (Nuveen, 2019)

Nuveen demonstrates why structural megatrends strongly favour the Asia Pacific region, which will come to dominate both global GDP and rapid ‘urbanisation’, with 50% of the world’s urban population growth by 2030. They suggest that an allocation to the APAC region in any real estate portfolio is likely to benefit from a range of opportunities that are not necessarily present in the Developed World.

2019 Global Alternative Fund Survey (EY)

EY offers, in their Global Annual Survey, a ‘deep dive’ into the alternative asset industry in which they outline how the past decade has been one of historical change. Insights into ways in which technology has impacted the space are cited, while the Survey also makes suggestions as to how a more competitive landscape might be tackled head-on.

2020 Commercial Real Estate Outlook (Deloitte)

In Deloitte’s 2020 Commercial Real Estate Outlook, they surveyed 750 industry professionals across ten countries to assess how emerging technology and analytics are likely to impact on location decisions. An improving tenant experience might also be a further consequence.

Asset Class Return Forecasts Q4 2019 (Amundi AM)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi presents their Q4 Asset Class Expected Returns which offer a 3, 5 and 10-year view. Predicated initially on a late-cycle slowdown followed by a slow central bank U-turn, they expect global growth to be below potential in 2020, a situation they see further exacerbated in 2021.

Rethinking your insurance portfolio for today's challenges (M&G Investments, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

In this M&G Investments paper, they explore how insurance companies might best adapt their investment policies to suit a more challenging environment. Insurance underwriting returns are diminishing, while reliance on investment returns is rising. For many insurers, this is a particularly testing scenario.

Solving the Pricing Puzzle in Wealth Management (BCG, 2019)

BGC's report into the Wealth Management industry finds a two-tier market, with leading firms pulling away from the pack. Optimising pricing strategy, rather than cutting costs, appears to have been the driver been behind the more successful firms.