Macro Backdrop: Uncertainty, Stagflation and Energy Transition
Geopolitical tensions, monetary policy pivots and energy crises
The macro backdrop throughout 2022 has been characterised by mounting uncertainty. This translated into waves of volatility across asset classes, but will this continue going forward? The handpicked insights below will help investors make sense of the crucial macroeconomic developments which have defined this year – and what might come next.
Geopolitics and Economic Growth
2022 Global Risk Report: Tail Risks (PGIM)
Based on responses from 400 global institutional investors with a combined AUM of $12tn+, the biggest risks facing allocators include liquidity drying up and military conflict.
Global Macro Research: The Future of The UK (Insight Investment)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada
The UK economy is facing a growing list of risks, some are global in nature while others are more national. Given the recent political chaos, what is next for the UK economy?
Assessing Asia’s Macroeconomic Sustainability (Lombard Odier IM)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Geopolitical events and tighter monetary policies have impacted the outlook for Asian economies like never before. Find out what the macro picture looks like for APAC countries.
Geopolitics and the USD's Future as a Reserve Currency (U.S. Federal Reserve)
The status of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency and geopolitics are closely linked. This study explores the hidden dynamic.
Monetary Policy and Inflation
Podcast: Regime Change at the FED (What Happens Next)
After years of extraordinary monetary policy, major central banks have changed their tone. What does a more hawkish Federal Reserve mean for markets and economies?
Addressing Inflation Risk: What Can Pension Schemes Do? (Candriam)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe
The wave of persistently higher inflation which forced central banks to tighten is having drastic implications for long-term investors.
Spare the Bear: The Inflation Debate that Should Be Happening (BlackRock)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada
If there were no trade-offs between inflation and growth, central banking would be easy. Unfortunately, there is, and policymakers have to walk a fine line.
Food Price Inflation: 10 Implications (Manulife IM)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
The surge in food prices is not a temporary blip. Energy and fertilizer prices have been rising since 2020. What are the long-term financial and economic implications?
Monetary Power and Sovereign Debt Crises (Bretton Woods Project)
Developing economies are harder hit by sovereign debt crises. This is less due to fiscal mismanagement and more about an imbalance of power embedded in the monetary system.
Energy Markets and Net Zero
Against Utopia: The Need for A Pragmatic Energy Transition (Man Group)
Investors need to improve the environmental position of those industries with the worst emissions. However, this process needs to be realistic for maximum efficiency.
Toward the Winter of Discontent (New York Life Investments)
Geopolitical tensions across the world have intensified the impact of higher energy prices on key economies. This winter may prove to be a difficult one for markets.
Will Fusion Energy Help Decarbonize the Power System? (McKinsey & Company)
Nuclear fusion has long been regarded an idea for sci-fi books only. However, recent technology advancements might make it a reality – helping the transition to net zero.
Webinar: Price caps in Europe’s energy markets (OIES)
As the war in Ukraine is ongoing, Europe's energy crisis continues to deepen. Will price caps reduce energy costs and help economic growth?
