Post Lockdown Blues? Views on the Outlook for Economies and Inflation
Opinions are sharply divided about the prospects for economic recovery after the Great Lockdown, as are views on whether we are likely to suffer deflation, inflation and stagflation. From this point, as countries begin to exit lockdown, some economists are arguing that we will get all three, possibly in that order!
With such divided views and In order to help inform debate on the subject, Savvy Investor has collated a wide range of papers and thought leadership articles from amongst leading asset managers and academia as well as public commentary and interviews from some of the most respected names in economics.
In this podcast, BNP Paribas AM strategists debate whether deflation, rather than inflation, should be the next concern for markets.
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada
LGIM outlines its thoughts about the speed of recovery, the lasting damage to output and its implications for inflation.
FTSE Russell investigates whether the dislocation of supply chains will lead to inflation as aggregate demand recovers.
NN IP debates the policy responses to the pandemic, suggesting that potentially, asset bubbles might occur as a result of 'lower for longer' monetary policies, whilst such policies might also lead to a rise in inflation.
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States
Amundi sees additional fiscal programs as being necessary as lockdowns are lifted.
Man Group notes the similarities between the economic situation and policies of the 1940s and today.
Paul Tudor Jones outlines his views on the unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal policy intervention that have occurred since February.
Bob Hancké, in this blog for the LSE, suggests that a recent op-ed by Stephen Roach in the FT which predicted a future of stagflation as a combined result of the increasing brittleness of supply chains and the pent-up consumer demand caused by the lockdown, is wrong.
This webinar, part 2 of 3 in a series entitled 'A Strong and Sustainable Recovery', looks at policy actions that ought to be enacted to ensure that a strong and sustainable recovery is indeed forthcoming.
This article by VoxEU investigates "hysteresis", or scars on long term growth, and offers insights as to what policies should be adopted to minimize its long term effects.
Historian Robert Skidelsky suggests the world economy could face a unique “inflationary depression” as it emerges from lockdowns, with government spending propping up demand even as unemployment soars.
Nouriel Roubini outlines ten key risks that the global economy faces over the next decade.
Nouriel Roubini outlines why he thinks the world is facing an 'L' Shaped recession.
Daniel Lacalle gives his personal take on recent government liquidity injections and their implications.
In this piece for OMFIF, Brian Reading outlines his views on where the advanced world economies might be heading.
Using a model based on Japan's experiences, this paper by CAMA explains the driving forces behind the secular stagnation associated with a persistent decrease in interest rates.
Fulcrum AM notes that central bank intervention is on a scale three times larger than it was in 2008 and that most commentators are looking for a V shaped recovery.
Bloomberg hosts a roundtable discussion about potential changes to the US economy, labor markets and the threat of stagflation.
Fulcrum AM suggests that supply lockdowns could cause bigger declines in global demand with falling prices
Opening the economy too soon could backfire badly, suggests Paul Krugman in this piece for the New York Times.