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Deflation, Inflation, Stagflation. In that order?

Post Lockdown Blues? Views on the Outlook for Economies and Inflation

Opinions are sharply divided about the prospects for economic recovery after the Great Lockdown, as are views on whether we are likely to suffer deflation, inflation and stagflation. From this point, as countries begin to exit lockdown, some economists are arguing that we will get all three, possibly in that order!

With such divided views and In order to help inform debate on the subject, Savvy Investor has collated a wide range of papers and thought leadership articles from amongst leading asset managers and academia as well as public commentary and interviews from some of the most respected names in economics.

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Podcast: Deflation, not inflation, is the main risk now (BNP Paribas AM, May 2020)

In this podcast, BNP Paribas AM strategists debate whether deflation, rather than inflation, should be the next concern for markets.

Escaping Lockdown: Revisiting the economic scenarios (LGIM blog, Apr 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

LGIM outlines its thoughts about the speed of recovery, the lasting damage to output and its implications for inflation.

Inflation, What Inflation Risks? (FTSE Russell blog, Apr 2020)

FTSE Russell investigates whether the dislocation of supply chains will lead to inflation as aggregate demand recovers.

Will the Policy Response Fuel Inflation? (NN IP blog, Apr 2020)

NN IP debates the policy responses to the pandemic, suggesting that potentially, asset bubbles might occur as a result of 'lower for longer' monetary policies, whilst such policies might also lead to a rise in inflation.

Emergency Fiscal Programs: No choice but to increase the deficits (Amundi, May 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi sees additional fiscal programs as being necessary as lockdowns are lifted.

Back to the Future: The 1940s and the road to inflation (Man Group blog, Apr 2020)

Man Group notes the similarities between the economic situation and policies of the 1940s and today.

The Great Monetary Inflation (Jones & Giorgianni, May 2020)

Paul Tudor Jones outlines his views on the unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal policy intervention that have occurred since February.

Why Inflation is Not Lurking in the Shadows (LSE blog, May 2020)

Bob Hancké, in this blog for the LSE, suggests that a recent op-ed by Stephen Roach in the FT which predicted a future of stagflation as a combined result of the increasing brittleness of supply chains and the pent-up consumer demand caused by the lockdown, is wrong.

Webinar: Policy for a strong and sustainable recovery (Royal Economic Society, May 2020)

This webinar, part 2 of 3 in a series entitled 'A Strong and Sustainable Recovery', looks at policy actions that ought to be enacted to ensure that a strong and sustainable recovery is indeed forthcoming.

The Persistence of a COVID-Induced Global Recession (VoxEU, May 2020)

This article by VoxEU investigates "hysteresis", or scars on long term growth, and offers insights as to what policies should be adopted to minimize its long term effects.

Video: World faces ‘Inflationary Depression,’ says Robert Skidelsky (Bloomberg, May 2020)

Historian Robert Skidelsky suggests the world economy could face a unique “inflationary depression” as it emerges from lockdowns, with government spending propping up demand even as unemployment soars.

The Biggest Economic Challenges We Face Over the Next 10 Years (WEF blog, May 2020)

Nouriel Roubini outlines ten key risks that the global economy faces over the next decade.

Ten Reasons Why a 'Greater Depression' for the 2020s is Inevitable (Nouriel Roubini)

Nouriel Roubini outlines why he thinks the world is facing an 'L' Shaped recession.

Massive Stimulus May Boost Inflation the Wrong Way (Daniel Lacalle blog, Apr 2020)

Daniel Lacalle gives his personal take on recent government liquidity injections and their implications.

Welcome to the World of Stagflation (Brian Reading, May 2020)

In this piece for OMFIF, Brian Reading outlines his views on where the advanced world economies might be heading.

Secular Stagnation, Low Interest Rates and Fear of a Government Debt Crisis (CAMA, 2020)

Using a model based on Japan's experiences, this paper by CAMA explains the driving forces behind the secular stagnation associated with a persistent decrease in interest rates.

After Lockdowns, Economic Sunlight or a Long Hard Slog? (Fulcrum AM blog, Apr 2020)

Fulcrum AM notes that central bank intervention is on a scale three times larger than it was in 2008 and that most commentators are looking for a V shaped recovery.

Podcast: Years before U.S. gets full employment back (Bloomberg, Apr 2020)

Bloomberg hosts a roundtable discussion about potential changes to the US economy, labor markets and the threat of stagflation.

The Deflation Threat From the Virus Will Be Long Lasting (Fulcrum AM blog, May 2020)

Fulcrum AM suggests that supply lockdowns could cause bigger declines in global demand with falling prices

How to Create a Pandemic Depression (Paul Krugman, May 2020)

Opening the economy too soon could backfire badly, suggests Paul Krugman in this piece for the New York Times.