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Global Investment Outlook - September 2019

Macro Themes, Market Outlooks and Long-Term Return Forecasts

Should equity investors be cautiously optimistic, or should they fasten their seatbelts and prepare for an even bumpier ride?  The overarching theme for the month of September seems to be uncertainty. The trade war continues to rear its ugly head, Boris Johnson keeps beating the Brexit drum despite the opinions of MPs, Venezuela is in turmoil and bond yields (although they have bounced) remain exceptionally low across the board.   

In the papers below, UBS and MFS take a step back and examine the longer-term outlook and the pattern of corporate leverage through the cycle. Other papers explore the market outlook over a shorter time-frame, discussing the opportunities and risks across a range of different asset classes. 

Sep Outlook

Slower growth and performance: 5-year capital market expectations (UBS AM)

UBS Asset Management provides their capital market expectations for the next five to ten years for a broad group of asset classes.

Corporate Leverage Through the Cycle (MFS, Sep 2019)

Lior Jassur of MFS Investments stresses the importance of security selection in corporate bonds, given the mountain of corporate debt that has been issued in the US and Europe and declining overall credit quality.

Finding value in emerging market debt (Capital Group, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Capital Group examines the factors currently driving the EM debt markets and the opportunities that exist.

Podcast: An Investor's Guide to China - Opening Up (Fidelity Intl, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

What are the opportunities and pitfalls of investing in China? In this podcast, Fidelity's Paras Anand interviews a number of China experts, providing investors with a better understanding of the Chinese economy and financial markets.

High loan yields signal a buying opportunity (Eaton Vance)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

In this Q&A, Eaton Vance's floating-rate loan team examines the current loan market and highlights an interesting opportunity.

Multi Asset Monthly: Rising recession risks (NN IP, Sep 2019)

NN IP discusses their positioning in light of recent events such as trade tensions, weaker macroeconomic data, and increased political risk.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Sep 2019)

Eaton Vance's 40-page "Monthly Market Monitor" uses a chartbook format to provide a helpful review of economic and market data.

Global Investment Views (Amundi AM, Sep 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi Asset Management goes over recent political and market-related news, providing their investment views for the month of September 2019.

Multi-asset market outlook (Robeco, Sep 2019)

This monthly document by Robeco provides insights into the outlook for global equities, bonds, and foreign exchange. The authors also provide a brief regional economic analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, and China.

Market Compass: Investment Guide Q3 2019 (Invesco US)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

Demographics, debt, and disruption are three significant trends for investors. In this report, Invesco shares several charts that illustrate these trends.

Investment Traffic Lights (DWS AM, Sep 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom

This 9-page paper by DWS AM presents the firm's monthly market analysis and positioning.

Capturing the Asian century: tapping into Asia’s growth (Manulife IM, 2019)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Manulife explores the economic fundamentals that lie at the foundation of the Asia growth story, discussing the key developments that have made the region's markets more accessible and appealing to global investors.

U.S. Rates: Low for Long, but Likely Positive (PGIM Fixed Income, Aug 2019)

Will the United States soon face negative yields, as a large portion of the developed world has already? PGIM Fixed Income expects U.S. rates to remain positive for a variety of reasons.

Is Fiscal the New Monetary? (PIMCO, Aug 2019)

Can fiscal policy pick up where global monetary policy has left off, taking the proverbial baton and boosting the global economy out of its current low-growth (and low rate) environment?

Global Outlook (The Economist, Sep 2019)

This Economist Intelligence Unit report updates the forecasts for economies across the globe, and provides insights into global trade, FX rates, commodity prices, and other markets.

Byron Wien: Plenty to Worry About, but Not Much to Do (Blackstone blog, Sep 2019)

After a recent series of lunchtime talks about the global economic environment, Byron Wien shares his views about events affecting markets in Q3 and the outlook for the next 12 months.