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Commercial Real Estate and Coronavirus

Early thoughts on the likely winners and losers in Real Estate from the COVID-19 fallout.

Academics, epidemiologists and central bankers have yet to fully comprehend the likely scale, duration and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, at this early stage, it may be useful to highlight market participants' inital thoughts about how economies, geographical regions and individual sectors of the real estate market may have already been impacted, and what the future may hold for developers, landlords, investors and other real estate operators. 

Markets are eagerly anticipating the first results from large-scale antibody testing, which should reveal the extent to which populations have already built up immunity to COVID-19 (the 'herd immunity' theory). The early releases of these results may have significant market impact, given that they will provide insight into the likely duration of lockdowns and consequently, the impact on the real economy.

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REAL ESTATE: IMPACT AND OUTLOOK


COVID-19 and the Outlook for Global Real Estate Markets (UBS AM, Mar 2020)

UBS AM notes that at this early stage in the COVID-19 pandemic it is challenging to predict the eventual impact on property performance depending on the duration and spread of the virus, but note that retail, leisure and hotels are already facing extreme pressure.

The implications of COVID-19 for real assets (Aviva Investors blog, Mar 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Aviva investigates the potential implications for European real estate investors of the devastating impact that COVID-19 is wreaking upon European economies.

Real estate is about more than location during uncertain times (MSCI blog, Mar 2020)

MSCI argues that considerations other than just location, such as lease length, might be more systematic drivers of return for real estate investors now the asset class occupies a greater proportion of many multi-asset portfolios.

Despite rising pressure, real estate should remain resilient (Nuveen, Mar 2020)

Nuveen's real estate experts offer their collective insights on the prospects for real estate assets amid the cOVID-19 pandemic. Global, regional and country level opinions are offered, along with sector views.

Webinar: Implications for real estate investors and occupiers of the COVID-19 outbreak (Cushman & Wakefield, Mar 2020)

In depth real estate market observations and commentary from C&W professionals, together with associated macroeconomic analysis.

CBRE Flash Call: COVID-19's impact on commercial real estate (CBRE, 2020)

In this webinar, CBRE examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the macroeconomy, capital markets and specific real estate classes.

COVID-19: Real estate implications (JLL, Mar 2020)

JLL explores the potential effects on the economy, real estate sectors, investors, and occupiers from the COVID-19 pandemic.

UK Real Estate and Covid-19 (Deloitte, Mar 2020)

Deloitte examines the impact of COVID-19 on the UK commercial property market looking at the market on a sector by sector basis.

Covid-19 Outbreak Resource Hub (CBRE, Mar 2020)

CBRE's 'coronavirus hub' of resources and insights into how the pandemic is already and may affect commercial real estate markets in future.

COVID-19 Resource Centre (Avison Young, Mar 2020)

Avison Young's briefing notes contain their initial thoughts about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Real Estate market.


MACRO ECONOMIC VIEWS


COVID-19 Perspectives (Newmark Knight Frank, Mar 2020)

Newman Kight Frank's perspectives on how the COVID-19 outbreak may impact real estate markets.

A Viral Market Meltdown IV: Investing for a post-virus economy (Aswath Damodaran, Mar 2020)

In his most recent paper, Aswath Damodaran offers insights into how should investors should craft a response to the market meltdown.

Macro Quarterly: Navigating the storm (UBS AM, Mar 2020)

UBS AM offers some suggestions on how best to negotiate what will be a troubling time for the global economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coronavirus: Potential impact on the European economy (Capital Group, 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Capital Group examines the potential impact on the European economy as the COVID-19 outbreak takes hold across Europe.

Covid-19: Implications for business and the global economy (McKinsey & Company, Mar 2020)

McKinsey & Company offers their regularly updated perspective on the implications for businesses and the economy from the Corvid-19 pandemic.