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Real Estate and the Retail Apocalypse

Retail Property and Retail Industry Outlooks for 2019

Recent high-profile bankruptcy talks such as Sears in the U.S. and House of Fraser in the U.K. have brought the retail industry back into the spotlight.  With the rise of e-commerce and increasingly well-informed consumers on the one hand, and constrained margins compounded by lower foot traffic on the other, just how real is the purported 'retail apocalypse,' and how is the industry being affected by these trends? 

Is the mall dead, or are there certain parts of the retail market that are more immune to disruption than others?  Additionally, how will Brexit affect the UK and European retail sectors?  Perhaps the answers lie within this list of our most recent real estate and retail-specific outlook papers. 

retail property outlook

Retail's fall from grace: lessons for real estate investors (Fidelity Intl, 2018)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Bricks-and-mortar retailers are in a fight for survival. Online shopping is transforming retail but at a time when consumption is struggling and the role of consumption in growth is waning. Today’s developments are only the beginning, and the UK market is far from unique.

December 2018 U.S. Retail Outlook (AEW)

AEW presents a comprehensive, 69-page outlook for the U.S. retail sector. With the economic environment in the U.S. accelerating in 2018, consumer confidence rose to above pre-crisis levels. This should bode well for U.S. retail sales throughout the holiday shopping season.

The Retail Rollercoaster (Colliers International, Nov 2018)

This report looks at the overall growth trends in retail and consumption across Europe and explores some myths on the threat of e-commerce in particular.

Think Global: Retail Outlets (TH Real Estate, Aug 2018)

Angela Goodings, Director of Research, explains why outlet malls will continue to grow in popularity with investors as the sector is underpinned by constrained supply and growing demand, offering attractive risk-adjusted returns.

The future of retail parks – rising to the online challenge (Aviva Investors, May 2018)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Aviva discusses the effects of technology upon UK retail parks. With increased amounts of information at the fingertips of shoppers (price comparisons, product info, reviews, etc), their expectations have risen, and some retailers have struggled to cope.

How e-commerce is reshaping the future of retail properties (MSCI blog, Mar 2018)

Certain types of retail properties may prove particularly resilient to disruption by e-commerce, namely grocery stores, fitness centers, movie theaters, and restaurants.

UK Retail Commercial Property Outlook 2018 (Knight Frank)

2018 is likely to be just as challenging for the UK retail sector as 2017 has been. Some pressures may have eased but there is no greater sense of certainty than there was 12 months ago. Almost without exception, retailers remain cautious.

2019 European Real Estate Market Outlook (AEW)

AEW provides their outlook for the European real estate market, with insight into the widening property yield and the relative attractiveness of particular real estate segments.

Thoughts on the "Retail Apocalypse" (Cambridge Associates, Apr 2018)

This paper has been authored by Cambridge Associates. In it, the authors argue that while retail is changing and some companies face challenges, this theme has probably been overhyped and implications for investors are limited.

E-commerce: Shopping for Retail (PGIM Real Estate, 2017)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

E-commerce has real estate investors considering new trends in an old industry.

UK Property Snapshot (Colliers International, Dec 2018)

Colliers International reviews the UK economic landscape as of December, 2018, and its implications for real estate investors across multiple sectors.