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Post-Pandemic Recovery: What's on the horizon for markets?

What Will the Shape of Recovery Look Like?

The first half of 2020 has experienced unprecedented market conditions and extreme levels of volatility. Month-on-month, the dynamics of markets and economies have significantly changed thanks to monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, as well as changing virus data. Now, as the light at the end of the coronavirus-crisis tunnel appears almost visible, is it finally time for cautious optimism? Where are the opportunities?

In this collection of outlook papers, commentators assess the market backdrop against their expectations for the economic recovery and the post-pandemic world. Will it be a ‘V-shape’, or is it more of a ‘U’? 

V-shape of economic recovery

Five Themes Framing the Post-Virus Economy (PGIM Fixed Income, Jun 2020)

PGIM Fixed Income presents the five core themes that they believe will be key in characterising the shape of markets and the economy post-COVID.

CIO Outlook: Recovery positions (LGIM, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

LGIM outlines several longer-term trends that have been intensified as a result of the COVID-19 crisis such as populism and digitisation, among others.

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Never had it so loose (Federated Hermes, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

In their quarterly take, Federated Hermes assesses the damage caused by the virus on the economy as well as providing their expected outlook for growth assets.

Podcast: H2 2020 Economic Outlook - No 'return to normal' (Candriam, Jun 2020)

In Candriam's outlook for the second half of 2020, Chief Economist Anton Brender and Global Head of Economic Research Florence Pisani discuss key drivers for the global economies in the months to come.

A View from the Midst of the Pandemic (Baillie Gifford, Jun 2020)

Baillie Gifford’s Mark Urquhart, Senior Investment Manager, reflects on the pandemic and presents his expectations for the decade ahead including an assessment of winners, healthcare and technology.

Multi-Asset Outlook (Robeco, Jun 2020)

The latest global Multi-Asset Outlook from Robeco provides near-term market expectations and also explains why commodities are their theme of the month.

Global Economic Outlook: Navigating Volatile Markets (Eaton Vance, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

In this paper, the Investment Teams at Eaton Vance present views on geopolitics, central bank policy and their outlook for global markets.

Macro Quarterly Q3 2020: Embracing a socially-distant early cycle (UBS AM, Jun)

UBS Asset Management provides their top themes for the rest of the year and explains why there are a number of opportunities now available in risk assets.

Investment Traffic Lights (DWS blog, Jun 2020)

This paper from DWS reviews the best-performing assets and explains why they are optimistic, though cautious, on the outlook for markets.

Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets (State Street, Jun 2020)

State Street takes a closer look at how inflation has been affected by the coronavirus pandemic, assessing patterns within consumer expenditure and transactions, among other data points.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

In their 44-page review, Eaton Vance provides both reference material and historical market data that may help investors to form their own conclusions on the outlook for investment markets.

May U.S. Jobs Report Stuns: Hello V-shaped recovery? (Manulife blog, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

In this paper, Manulife assesses the major takeaways from the latest US jobs report and they explain why a V-shaped recovery is on the cards.

Fixed Income: The need to safely restart growth (Franklin Templeton, May 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Franklin Templeton provides a significant update to their global sector and macro outlook in light of the fundamental change the world has seen due to COVID-19.

Webinar: Don't fight the central bankers (Aviva Investors, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

In this webinar, the High Yield team at Aviva Investors discusses the implications for recent market movements and highlights potential investment opportunities.

Fixed Income Insights: EM's offer value (PineBridge Investments, May 2020)

In this market overview from Pinebridge, the authors outline why a cautious approach seems most appropriate and present several circumstances where valuations appear attractive.

U.S. Mid-Year Outlook: From recession to recovery (Capital Group blog, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Capital Group’s latest outlook forecasts a further decline in US GDP, but explains why they remain optimistic on the longer-term outlook.

Podcast: Riding the market wave with an eye out for unknowns (NN IP, Jun 2020)

In this podcast from NN Investment Partners, Ewout van Schaick and Mark Belsey review the recent market recovery and debate whether a second wave in the coronavirus outbreak is likely.

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