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Investing for a Post-Corona World

How Will Life - and Economics - Change?

Not often does a specific event create a paradigm shift in the way that investors view the world. The coronavirus pandemic will undoubtedly go down as one such event, due to its broad-reaching effects upon individuals, corporations, global markets, and entire economies. But at some point, it will be declared that the curve has flattened, new instances of the virus will begin  to decline, and the light at the end of the tunnel will become more visible. So... what happens then?

How should investors prepare for post-viral circumstances? Will the coronavirus alter asset class-specific and industry-specific trends?  Or will the engines of the global economy resume firing on all cylinders? The following papers present some commentary on the economic and multi-asset outlook during the outbreak, but also discuss the potential for a new post-crisis economic reality.  
 

end of tunnel


Policies, Performance and Prognosis Beyond Pandemic Pandemonium (Invesco, Apr 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco leans on experts in global economics, public affairs, and market strategy for their opinions on the lasting impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19 and Consumer and Mortgage Finance: It’s not 2008 all over again (M&G Investments, Apr 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

M&G Investments discusses why they believe that the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects will be quite different from the GFC in 2008.

Some Suspicions About the Coming Years (Baillie Gifford, Apr 2020)

Baillie Gifford's James Anderson muses on current expertise and thinking about the world and the challenges it now faces.

Podcast: Life beyond lockdown - how the coronavirus will accelerate existing global trends (Federated Hermes, Apr 2020)

The coronavirus lockdown has altered the world-view of millions of individuals. Will our fight against this virus accelerate some of the pre-viral industry trends?

Coronavirus April Update: Our latest asset class views (PineBridge blog, Apr 2020)

PineBridge presents their latest asset class views and regional developments in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Need for a Policy Paradigm Shift (NN IP blog, Apr 2020)

Economists from NN Investment Partners examine the role that Fiscal Policy and other policy instruments will play in a post-Corona world.

Global Macro Outlook Q2 2020: Navigating COVID-19 (Manulife IM)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Forecasting during the coronavirus outbreak is extremely difficult. Despite the worsening economic situation, Manulife attempts to cut through the noise with this Q2 outlook.

Webinar: Equities in a shut-down? (UBS AM, Apr 2020)

Coronavirus-related market volatility is indicative of the investors' fear and uncertainty. This can result in opportunistic circumstances for those who are both diligent and agile.

Will COVID-19 lead to a concentration of corporate power? (Aviva Investors blog, 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Aviva Investors explains how the coronavirus pandemic could result in large firms exerting dominance over some of their weaker rivals. What could this mean for investors?

Could Coronavirus Depress U.S. Housing Prices? (MSCI blog, Apr 2020)

Will economic shocks due to the coronavirus pandemic be as damaging to U.S. housing prices as the global financial crisis of 2008 was?

A Post-Coronavirus World: 7 Points of discussion for a new political economy (2020)

This paper raises 7 salient points for policymakers in a post-coronavirus world surrounding issues such as the potential for debt forgiveness and the usage of economic sanctions.

COVID-19: The impact on capital markets and the response (ICMA, Apr 2020)

The rapid increase in Coronavirus cases has dominated financial markets and all other traditional news stories. ICMA looks at its effects on fixed income markets.

A New Economic Era Beckons After This Crisis (Schroders blog, Apr 2020)

Schroders suggests current events likely mark a turning point in economic policy and the end of a 40-year spell of free market capitalism.

How to Restart National Economies During the Coronavirus Crisis (McKinsey & Company, 2020)

By recognizing differences among regions and sectors, governments can get people back to work faster and safeguard our livelihoods.

COVID Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers (CEPR, Apr 2020)

This collection of papers brings together formal investigations on the economic issues emanating from the COVID outbreak, based on explicit theory and/or empirical evidence.

Doing More of What it Takes: Next steps in the economic response to COVID-19 (Resolution Foundation, 2020)

How long will social distancing last and what will be its effects? This paper looks at three scenarios.

The Macroeconomic Spillover Effects of the Pandemic on the Global Economy (BIS, 2020)

BIS presents estimates for a range of plausible assumptions about the direct impact of confinement measures on GDP.

COVID-19 and the Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters (NBER, 2020)

NBER attempts to quantify the extent of economic damage as a result of COVID-19. The novel coronavirus is very different from other natural disasters in how it is likely to affect economic variables.

How to Read Financial News: Coronavirus, confirmation bias, and political bias (Enterprising Investor blog, Apr 2020)

Robert J. Martorana, CFA, reminds us that the way we read coronavirus news (and financial news) matters, especially when it comes to our tendency towards confirmation bias and political bias.