Global Strategy Outlook

October 2016 Investment Outlook - the best papers

Our selection of global research for Q4 2016

Politics has taken centre stage in recent weeks, but financial markets have remained resilient, with continuing support from central bank liquidity. What is the outlook for the remainder of 2016? Here is our selection of the best research examining the investment prognosis. There are some fascinating articles and insights, as strategists and economists analyse the current environment, examine the market opportunities, and make predictions for the months ahead.

Coal Mining Q4 2016 Investment Outlook White Papers

Global Investment Outlook Q4 2016 (BlackRock)
This 11-page paper by BlackRock analyzes important upcoming investment themes and risks relevant to firms' strategies, for example: central bank policy limits; low returns environment; market volatility; markets outlook, and more.

Expected Returns 2017-2021: It’s Always Darkest Just Before Dawn (Robeco, Oct 2016)
Sentiment among professional investors seems to have reached new lows. The authors of this paper by Robeco discuss in detail their expectations of a number of global market issues over the next five years.

JP Morgan Quarterly Guide To The Markets - Q4 2016
The JP Morgan quarterly "Guide to the Markets" is a bumper 80-page report, packed with charts and tables, illustrating global economic trends, and examining the key drivers of equity and fixed income markets for the period ahead. The accompanying "quarterly perspectives" report is a "guide to the guide".

Top of Mind - Global Macro Research (Goldman Sachs, Sep 2016)
This 29-page briefing by Goldman Sachs discusses the factors - both political and economic - that are likely to significantly affect global trade both now and in the coming years. The authors, who share their different perspectives on what’s driving the trade slowdown, also interview former UK Foreign Secretary Lord William Hague, leading global strategist Parag Khanna and macroeconomist Dean Baker.

Lower for Longer: Where to Find Yield Today? (UBS, Oct 2016)
Given that there is limited room (if any?) for further interest rate reductions, investors face a very challenging environment in the fixed income space. The search for yield has gone beyond advanced economies and high quality credit.

Monthly Investment Outlook from Bill Gross (Janus Capital, Oct 2016)
In his latest Investment Outlook, Bill Gross of Janus Capital argues that because of negative policy rates, our financial markets have become a casino. This can't end well.

Secular Outlook for Global Growth: 2016–2035 (Fidelity Investments)
This report by Fidelity Investments focuses exclusively on secular trends that may influence the long-term outlook for various asset classes.

Emerging Markets Debt Q4 2016 - The Recovery Continues (JP Morgan)
Against expectations, emerging market (EM) debt sectors have performed strongly so far in 2016, both in absolute terms and relative to other asset classes. This briefing explores the recovery in more detail.

Four Market Predictions for the Rest of 2016 (OppenheimerFunds)
This brief article provides Krishna Memani's (Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager) four key views on the markets between now and the end of the year.

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views (Franklin Templeton, Oct 2016)
This 9-page paper by Franklin Templeton discusses important themes related to tactical asset allocation, for example: opportunities, risks and long-term implications.

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