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November 2016 Investment Outlook

  • Posted by: ,  Chief Executive
  • 14 November 2016
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A reflationary world?

The U.S. election result has sent political shockwaves around the world, but the financial fall-out has been quite modest so far. As details of Trump's actual policies become clearer, markets will respond in due course, but for the meantime investors appear to be re-focusing on the fundamentals. One of these fundamentals is the possible bottoming of inflation, which may be given further impetus by Trump, and which is discussed in a number of the papers below.

Statue of Liberty US elections - November 2016 Investment Outlook

Why Equity Investors Should Worry Less About the Fed (QMA, Nov 2016)
Many investors are eyeing December as the most likely timing of its first interest rate hike in a year. This paper by QMA challenges the mainstream wisdom about the relationship between equity valuations and interest rates.

Capital Market Line - The End of Deleveraging (PineBridge Investments, Oct 2016)
This paper examines the receding austerity and deleveraging in developed markets as central banks step in to start providing incremental policy support on the fiscal side.

U.S. Election and Equities (Goldman Sachs, Nov 2016)
This paper discusses the market moves in currencies, fixed income and stocks following the unexpected election of Donald Trump as U.S. President.

U.S. Election and Fixed Income (Goldman Sachs, Nov 2016)
This briefing by Goldman Sachs Asset Management discusses the firm's positioning and key takeaways for their fixed income and currency market strategies following the U.S. Election result.

Global Equities: Volatility, Uncertainty & the Aging Bull Market (T. Rowe Price)
In 2016, macro and geopolitical events have dominated markets like never before. This T. Rowe Price paper takes a close look at the implications of this rising uncertainty, eight years into the second longest bull market in history.

The party isn't over, but it's getting late: From monetary to fiscal (JP Morgan)
As monetary policy approaches its limits to drive global growth, market expectations are rising for fiscal policy to play a bigger role. This paper by JP Morgan explores further.

Trump Wins: What's Next for Markets (PineBridge Investments, Nov 2016)
Now that the dust has settled from the election outcome, we take a closer look at the implications of the Trump presidency for equities, fixed income, and multi-asset investing as well as the global economy.

New fiscal theory and the U.S. election (Gavyn Davies, Nov 2016)
In this paper, economist Gavyn Davies examines the major shift in U.S. mainstream attitude towards fiscal policy. This shift faces two obstacles however: the Federal Reserve and political gridlock.

EM Equities: Follow-through on the earnings turn (JP Morgan, Nov 2016)
Over the past five years, earnings and earnings expectations for EMs have periodically flashed signs of a positive turn in momentum - only to flicker and fade. This paper examines this cycle.

Uncertain Investment Outlook With President-Elect Trump (T. Rowe Price)
Donald Trump made some grand, sweeping proposals during the election campaign. If implemented, these proposals will have considerable implications for US trade, fiscal, tax and immigration policies. What does all this mean for the investment outlook?