Macro Themes and Market Outlooks in 2018
From sector-specific recommendations to broad global trends, this month's investment outlook papers have something for everyone. PineBridge begins by describing a new era of capital expenditure and investment in R&D by corporates that could be a further engine for growth. Also on the optimistic side, Hermes brings to light the tailwinds that exist at present for emerging markets.
Byron Wien of Blackstone is more cautious, and discusses how, despite quickly recovering from the market correction in February and some positive economic data points, we may not be out of the woods just yet.
Capital Market Line 2018-2022: The Capability Cycle Keeps on Giving (PineBridge Investments)
PineBridge's latest Capital Market Line shows forecasts for returns and standard deviations over the period 2018-2022. A variety of economic indicators suggest that we are still mid-cycle, with events unfolding to favor continuing growth.
Global Macro Trends - Diverging Paths (KKR, Mar 2018)
Recent growth-oriented fiscal and regulatory policy combined with bigger deficits will likely result in the US Fed becoming increasingly aggressive; a ‘diverging path’ relative to what is currently seen in Europe and Asia.
Macro Chartbook: 3 Themes to Watch (Goldman Sachs AM, Mar 2018)
How is the macro environment evolving? Goldman Sachs Asset Management is watching three main themes: global growth (on track), fiscal policy (looser than we expected) and monetary policy tightening (finally starting to matter).
EM Debt: Think Local (Currency) in 2018 (PineBridge)
Due to a shrinking growth gap between developed and emerging economies since the global financial crisis in 2009, EM currencies have declined, but this trend is starting to reverse.
Preqin Investor Outlook: Alternative Assets H1 2018
The Preqin Investor Outlook: Alternative Assets, H1 2018, discusses investor appetite for PE, VC, HF, RE, infrastructure, private debt, and natural resources in 2018 via a survey of 550 institutional investors.
More Trouble for the Equity Markets Ahead - Market Commentary (by Byron Wien of Blackstone)
Byron Wien of Blackstone discusses market sentiment, the equity market correction of early Feb 2018, and how equities may not be out of the woods just yet.
March 2018 Strategic Outlook: Investment Traffic Lights (Deutsche AM, Mar 2018)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK)
Deutsche AM presents their monthly investment outlook and traffic lights recommendations for March 2018.
A rising trend in US inflation (BNP Paribas blog, Mar 2018)
Due to the brightening outlook for inflation and growth in the USA, targets for Treasury yields and TIPS breakeven rates have been raised.
Podcast - February's Rich Pickings - Changing patterns: A return to normal? (Fidelity International blog, Feb 2018)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK and Europe)
The Asset Allocation Group at Fidelity gathers to talk about positioning for the month in this debrief, hosted by Richard Edgar.
The tailwinds have arrived: Our 2018 outlook for emerging markets (Hermes IM)
The bottoming out of the commodity cycle, a declining US dollar, and improving productivity in EM companies are all favourable tailwinds for emerging markets that are finally present in 2018.
Capital Market Assumptions: 10 Consultant Outlooks (eVestment, Feb 2018)
The capital market assumptions and outlooks for a variety of asset classes from 10 consultants are reviewed by eVestment.
What Does Population Aging Mean for Growth and Investments? (KKR, Feb 2018)
KKR addresses aging and the economic implications of aging populations, as well as options countries have to counterbalance these effects, and opportunities for investment that may arise as a result of the interaction of these forces.
Hedge Fund Outlook for 2018 – No Grit, No Pearl (Callan)
Callan suggests that return expectations for hedge funds are driven by 4 drivers - short term interest rates, market beta, alternative beta (style factors and strategy premia), and alpha.
Fixed-Income Outlook Q1 2018: Chart Highlights - Walking the Risk Tightrope (Guggenheim)
Selected charts within show that current conditions could persist for some time, so the time for caution drawing nigh.
Global Outlook by Aberdeen Standard Investments (monthly) Mar 2018
A monthly commentary on the outlook for global markets from Aberdeen Standard Investments.