Risks, Insights, Predictions and Macro themes for 2018
We're a few weeks into 2018… has the game changed? Has the onset of vol materially affected market viewpoints? What sort of surprises are waiting for market participants around the next corner?
This month's list of investment outlook-related papers aptly kicks off with an overview of the global risk landscape in 2018. Other highlights include Legal & General's outlook for credit markets in the face of rising interest rates and Invesco's insight into the stock market sell-off last week.
The Global Risks Report 2018 (World Economic Forum)
The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report contains topics including: Future Shocks, Hindsight and Risk Reassessment. This document is a comprehensive assessment of geopolitical and market-related risks of global relevance.
Multi-assets markets outlook (monthly) Robeco, Feb 2018
Robeco's monthly chart book provides insights into the outlook for major asset classes including bonds, equities and commodities.
Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Feb 2018)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the USA and Canada)
This monthly outlook by Eaton Vance reviews economic and asset class data through several charts, covering: sovereign bond yields, monetary policy, U.S. Treasury yields, Fixed income, and more topics.
Lessons from the stock market sell-off (Invesco blog, Feb 2018)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the USA)
This blog entry from Invesco reviews the volatility spike in early February and recommends precaution and preparedness in the face of volatility.
Credit Outlook 2018: Are market expectations too good to be true? (LGIM)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the USA or Canada)
The consensus outlook for credit markets in 2018 is not overly positive, but could reality be even worse? Are investors underestimating the effects of quantitative tightening?
Barings Quarterly Investment Outlook (Jan 2018)
In their quarterly outlook, Barings reviews sub-sector outlooks in detail, across fixed income, equities, alternatives, and multi-asset.
Asset Allocation Outlook 2018: Singles and Doubles (PIMCO, Feb 2018)
With market volatility on the rise, PIMCO suggests considering a broad set of relative value opportunities across global markets.
Equity Valuation: Science, Art, or Craft? (CFA Institute Research Foundation)
The CFA Institute Research Foundation investigates the origin of nonconsensus beliefs on overweighting or underweighting stocks. Based on interviews with PMs, research directors, and CIOs in Europe and North America.
A Practitioner’s Guide to Reading VIX® (S&P Dow Jones Indices, Dec 2017)
The meaning of a given VIX level is frequently misunderstood. This document is an introduction to some simple rules for market participants that could help to translate VIX levels into measures of market sentiment
Sustainable Growth in China - implications for the global economy (ECB, 2018)
The ECB looks at slowing growth and widening domestic imbalances in China, the risks that are posed to China's economic outlook, and the impact that transitioning to sustainable growth in China would have upon the rest of the world.
Global Economic Perspective (Franklin Templeton, Jan 2018)
European economic conditions and the ECB's monetary policy, recent significant changes to US fiscal policy, and increased demand for commodities are all topics covered within Franklin Templeton's Global Economic Perspectives document.
A New Dawn for Emerging Markets Equities (Barings, Feb 2018)
Barings’ portfolio managers explain why they remain optimistic on the outlook for EM equities, given their strong rebound after 5 years of underperformance vs developed markets.
Predictions 2018: Froth and Frustration (Reuters, Jan 2018)
Reuters scans the present geopolitical, macroeconomic, and financial market environment to present 41 predictions for the coming year.
Global Cash Outlook 2018: Cash Investment Prospects in a Shifting Rate Environment (SSGA)
With 2018 now under way, cash investors will likely see an investment environment beset with a continuation of trends like global economic growth despite tighter monetary policy in many countries.
Why China A-Shares, Why Now? (William Blair, 2018)
In this paper, members of the William Blair Global Equity team discuss the domestic Chinese equity markets and the opportunity for institutional investors to increase their allocations to China A-Shares.
EM Debt: Still going strong but beware headwinds (JP Morgan AM, Jan 2018)
JP Morgan AM's latest Emerging Markets Debt Strategy paper features quarterly themes and implications for the asset class.
Investing after the U.S. tax overhaul (BlackRock, Jan 2018)
2018 brought in a new U.S. tax code. The implications, for both asset prices and the wider economy, are complex and are likely to play out over years. This paper by BlackRock aims to address some of the taxing questions.
Outlook for 2018: You Can Get What You Need (KKR, Jan 2018)
KKR's 2018 outlook draws parallels between today's investment environment and the late 1990s - overpaying for growth and simplicity, while ignoring stories with complexity, cyclicality, or uncertainty.
Global Outlook (The Economist, Jan 2018)
The Economist Intelligence Unit expects 2018 to play out similarly to 2017 for the global economy. Upward revisions to growth expectations are present in the USA, Europe, and China, despite the headwind of monetary tightening.
Modern Slavery: The True Cost of Cobalt Mining (Hermes IM, 2017)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the USA)
Hermes discusses the supply chain for cobalt, the impact that cobalt mining can have on indigenous populations, and the increased demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries.