All topics

2020 Mid-Year Investment Outlook

Top Whitepapers on the Outlook for H2 2020

When will the global economy finish thawing out from the economic deep-freeze it entered during the first half of 2020? Somehow, equity markets have managed to focus on positive news, shirking off negative economic data, negative earnings surprises, corporate defaults, and bankruptcies, while instead focusing on the relief generated by fiscal and monetary policy measures. In many geographies, though, the virus and its effects continue to linger.

Meanwhile, the consumer remains stuck in the middle, forced to determine a path forward and ascertain their relative level of optimism while surrounded by facemasks on the one hand and rallying asset prices on the other. With clowns to the left of us, and jokers to our right, here we are - stuck in the middle of 2020.

midyear outlook stuck in the middle


2020 Mid-Year Outlook (BlackRock)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

In their 2020 Mid-Year Outlook, BlackRock presents three themes for the near future - the restart of economic activity, blurred monetary and fiscal policy, and a resurgence of structural trends that are cause to reshape strategic asset allocations.

Investment Outlook: Investing during a de-freezing cycle (Amundi, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi describes four themes for the second half of 2020, as well as several recovery scenarios as the global economy emerges from the deep freeze of H1 2020.

Beware false prophets and focus on the logic of value (QMA, Jun 2020)

Andrew Dyson, QMA's CEO, pens his latest thoughts on markets, focusing this time on the debate over whether Value investing has died.

Mid-Year Multi-Asset Outlook: Fundamentals (Wellington Management, Jun 2020)

In this multi-asset outlook, Wellington Management explores the potential disconnect between economic fundamentals and the rebound of global equity markets after the recent COVID-19 induced shock.

Mid-Year Outlook (Nuveen, Jun 2020)

Risk assets have priced in the lack of a serious second wave of viral infections, strengthening corporate profits, and interest rates near the zero bound in most developed countries. Nuveen believes only the last of these assumptions seems certain, which makes asset allocation and portfolio construction particularly tricky.

Intermediate Capital Market Assumptions (UBS AM, Jun 2020)

UBS Asset Management's 16-page, 5-year outlook contains both an economic scenario analysis and an update to their capital market assumptions, given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Big Picture: Eyes wide shut (Invesco, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco strategists describe why equity markets may be 'jumping the gun' in their recovery, given further expected drops in earnings, dividend cuts, and corporate defaults in the future. They also provide an economic scenario analysis and resulting asset class implications.

The Probability of Recession: A Theoretical Critique (PGIM IAS, Jun. 2020)

PGIM's Institutional Advisory & Solutions Group offers a critique of a recently published paper that describes a recession forecasting technique called 'Mahalanobis distance.'

Negative rates or yield curve control? (Federated Hermes, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

As monetary policy becomes more and more unconventional, one is left to ponder what the next frontier will look like for the Fed. Although neither is a given, yield curve control may be more likely than negative rates.

Japanese Equities: The post-pandemic future (Capital Group, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Portfolio managers from Capital Group discuss the intricacies of the Japanese equity market, including insight into particular 'technology enablers' and corporate dividend policies.

Disease and Debt Now…Dispersion Later? (Franklin Templeton, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Government debt has dramatically increased in response to the coronavirus crisis. In the short term, ongoing volatility may create opportunities for stock selection, long/short strategies, and global macro traders, but the long-term consequences for heavily indebted governments could be severe.

Global Investment Views (Amundi blog, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Markets seem to be assuming a relatively rosy scenario, despite the prevailing economic data. But are these expectations overly optimistic? Amundi recommends a balanced risk exposure and staying positive on credit in this brief multi-asset outlook.

The Eurozone’s Hamiltonian Movement (Invesco, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

In the late 18th century, Alexander Hamilton federalized the debts incurred during the Revolutionary War. Is the new EU proposal providing a fiscal cushion for responding to COVID-19 a similar moment?

What Do Rising US-China Tensions Mean for Global Markets? (Aviva blog, Jun 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Has the coronavirus worsened tensions between the United States and China? Aviva takes a look at the relationship between the two countries, potential implications for the phase one trade deal, and pre-election rhetoric in the US.

Podcast: Straight talking about a circular future (Robeco, Jul 2020)

Holger Frey, portfolio manager at Robeco, looks at the possibility of an economic reboot after Covid-19 and whether advocates of the circular economy could be on to something.

Podcast: Worsening virus data could flatten recovery (NN IP, Jun 2020)

This NN Investment Partners podcast covers the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, reasons why corporate credit may have more merit than equities in the present environment, and the risk of a potential economic plateau.

Webinar: Pandemic effects on commodity markets (S&P Dow Jones Indices)

Mostly geared towards financial advisors, this S&P Dow Jones Indices webinar discusses the commodities market, including what the commodities market may look like in a post-pandemic world.

Podcast: Reviving the dragon and China's recovery (EIU, 2020)

In this podcast, the panelists discuss tailwinds and headwinds for the Chinese economy, as well as updates on the trade war and the status of global supply chains in the midst of the pandemic.

related content