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Global Markets Outlook - Q4 2017

  • Posted by: ,  Chief Executive
  • 06 October 2017
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Investment Strategy and Guides to the Market - October 2017

Traditionally, the fourth quarter of the year is a good period for equity markets. Will that be the case this year? Below we list the most popular investment strategy reports on our platform.

NNIP sets out two possible economic scenarios; one in which the global economy continues on a similar path to recent years, the other where growth finally breaks out on the upside. This, it is argued, will have significant implications for financial markets.

Fidelity urges investors to be "braver for longer". The equity bull market may be in its final phase, but with valuations supportive and earnings growth robust, they believe the equity outlook remains supportive.

In addition, the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets for Q4 has just been released. Consistently one of the most downloaded reports on the Savvy Investor platform, there are versions available for investors based in UK, North America, Europe, Australia and Asia.

Savvy Investor

Fixed Income Investing and Interest Rates: From shake-up to new normal (NNIP)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies)
Should global growth and interest rates move higher, fixed income investors will need to reassess their course and look for short duration and specialized solutions. This NNIP paper explains further.

Emerging-market debt: Navigating the allocation dilemma (Eaton Vance, Sept 2017)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the USA and Canada)
Positive fundamental changes in emerging markets over the past 10-15 years, combined with steady economic expansion and the proliferation of emerging-market debt (EMD) indices, have begun to transform EMD into a recognized, mainstream asset class.

The Shift to Reflation: Assessing the Impact to Portfolios (PineBridge)
What worked well from an asset allocation perspective during the stall-speed regime is unlikely to offer strong risk-adjusted return moving forward. This paper identifies five types of broad market regimes.

Investment Outlook Q4 2017: Braver for longer (Fidelity International)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK and Europe)
This paper provides Fidelity International's outlook for global equities, bonds, and alternatives. The authors believe that the bull market is still intact but is now in its last phase.

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets (Q4 2017)
The latest JP Morgan quarterly "Guide to the Markets" is a bumper 80-page report, packed with charts and tables, illustrating global economic trends, and examining the key drivers of equity and fixed income markets for the period ahead.

Q4 Market Outlook: Six trends to watch (Invesco)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the USA)
Q3 saw stocks globally continue to rise. As we head into Q4, geopolitics and monetary policy may present the potential for greater disruption, which may in turn cause greater volatility in capital markets.

Demographics and Inflation - an age-old problem (LGIM, Sept 2017)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the USA and Canada)
Slower population growth has probably depressed OECD inflation by around ½% over the past decade. Going forward, the outlook could change as politicians progress on the five stages of demographic despondency.

The Coming Bear Market (Robert Shiller, Sept 2017)
The U.S. equity markets in 2017 look very much like they did at the peak before all 13 previous price collapses. Although a bear market may not be imminent, it does amount to a stark warning against complacency.

A Focus on Valuation Within Markets Reveals Opportunities (PineBridge, Oct 2017)
As the markets continue to normalize, strategists at PineBridge Investments find increasing conviction in opportunities to find value in smaller cap stocks globally and selected EM economies, particularly in Asia.

My Take on Inflation (Neel Kashkari, Oct 2017)
In this essay, Neel Kashkari, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, discusses inflation.

Quantitative Easing: The Long Unwinding Road (GSAM, Oct 2017)
Central banks are set to unwind the extraordinary accommodation put in place since the global financial crisis. This outlook paper takes a deep dive into the potential asset implications of the global QE retreat.

Value: A Practitioner's Guide (S&P Dow Jones Indices)
How someone measures the relative “cheapness” and determines how much of a portfolio to put in a “cheap” stock are key items to consider when looking at value. This paper acts as a helpful guide to value investing for investors.

Global Investment Outlook Q4 2017 (BlackRock)
Subdued market volatility has been fostered in equity markets by remarkably steady growth. The authors see this as a potential catalyst for risk-taking in equities and EM assets. In brief, sustained expansion and rethinking risk look poised to drive markets over the coming quarter.

Multi-Asset Outlook: Tick tock till tapering? (Wellington Management, Oct 2017)
Market watchers needed a split-screen monitor in the third quarter to track North Korea, hurricanes, inflation, and various geopolitical and global markets. Going into the fourth quarter, what should they be looking out for?

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Oct 2017)
This Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor presents a concise review of asset class and economic data through clear and insightful charts. These charts cover: sovereign bond yields, monetary policy, U.S. Treasury yields, Fixed income, etc.

Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2017 (JP Morgan)
This paper by JP Morgan Asset Management explores the fixed income outlook for 4Q 2017. The authors discuss key economic themes and their implications on investors' strategies.

Global Outlook (The Economist, Oct 2017)
The Economist Intelligence Unit provides new forecasts in this report for different economies around the world, as well as insights into exchange rates, global trade, commodity prices, and more.

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