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Market Outlook and US Election Polling Hubs

What Odds a Clean Sweep for the Democrats?

This latest selection of Outlook papers sees a number of commentators turning more positive longer term, as hopes of a deployment of a vaccine in H1 2021 appear to have risen. Additionally, the spreading ‘second wave’ of viral outbreaks may pressurize governments and central banks into further stimulatory policy measures to counter the negative economic effects of further lockdown measures.

Long lines were seen again this weekend as individual states expanded in-person voting, and the US Election Project suggests that over 60 million have already cast either in-person or mail-in ballots. Forecasters are suggesting that this election may have the highest voter turnout in over a century, with around two-thirds of eligible voters taking part.

See if the Democratic 'Blue Wave/Clean Sweep' momentum continues, with the latest news from the few remaining days left in the election campaign, brought to you via Savvy Investor’s curated selection of leading news and election poll hub sites.

 

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INVESTMENT OUTLOOK PAPERS


The Biology of Economic Policy (Invesco, Sep 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco's paper suggests that the COVID pandemic may have been the 'wake-up call' that global economic policymakers may have needed to act in a coordinated and timely fashion with large scale fiscal stimulus packages. What those effects might lead to can, however, only be figured out over a longer timescale.

Gold Outlook to Q3 2021 (WisdomTree Investments, 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

This paper from WisdomTree argues that recent declines in the price of gold offers investors a potentially attractive entry point, given the amount of economic uncertainty that persists.

Macro Quarterly: Q4 2020 (UBS AM)

In this latest Macroeconomic piece from UBS AM, they suggest that vaccine development and the ongoing fiscal response are the two critical issues which will likely determine both the timing and the shape of the process towards economic normalisation.

Equity Market Stress Monitor: 4Q 2020 (Intech)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Intech's latest Equity Market Stress Monitor Report highlights that despite a substantial recovery in equity markets, a number of metrics remain at elevated levels, with some even higher than they were earlier in the year. This report highlights those areas of concern.

Q4 Outlook: Reasons to believe (LGIM, Oct 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

LGIM have adopted a more positive bias towards equities based on a number of structural factors which offer support to risk assets.

House View, Q4 2020: A recovery like no other (Aviva Investors, 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Aviva Investors’ Outlook piece notes the recovery in certain sectors, confirmed by some improvement in economic activity. They suggest that the availability of an effective vaccine in early 2021 is likely to accelerate a recovery, but risks remain if fiscal support is withdrawn too quickly.

Fund Flows as Currency Indicator (Informa, 2020)

Informa’s interesting piece investigates whether equity fund flows might be a useful short-term predictor of currency movements.

Guide to the 2020 US Presidential Elections (BNP Paribas AM, Oct 2020)

Daniel Morris, chief market strategist, and Mark Allan, US economist at BNP Paribas AM, offer their views on the potential economic policy implications resulting from the U.S. Presidential election.

Emerging Markets — Dislocation creating opportunities (Amundi, Oct 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi notes an improvement in the virus cycle in a number of EM countries, and concurrently, in the pick-up in economic numbers in places like China and other Asian economies which have weathered the pandemic rather more successfully than many Developed World economies.

Investment Outlook: Uneven climb through recovery (Franklin Templeton, Oct 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Franklin Templeton suggests that a global recovery is underway, but that the upcoming U.S. elections add to market uncertainty. They continue to present two scenarios of the potential track of the recovery, but note that the COVID pandemic has accelerated a number of pre-existing themes and trends.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Oct 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

The Monthly Market Monitor from Eaton Vance is the reference guide to keep handy. Packed full of charts, asset class data and other insightful information, use this to inform discussions and aid understanding of markets.


U.S. ELECTION POLL HUBS


Who’s Ahead in the National Polls? (FiveThirtyEight, Oct 2020)

FiveThirtyEight’s regularly updating average of the U.S. 2020 Presidential election polls, weighted according to quality, recency, and sample size.

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Hub (270toWin, Oct 2020)

The Polling Average for each state is presented on 270toWin’s page; if that is not available, then the latest presidential election poll is substituted.

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Hub (The Economist, Oct 2020)

The Economist's U.S. Election hub, where polling, economic and demographic data is parsed to help provide a prediction of the outcome of the elections.

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Hub (Fox News, Oct 2020)

All the latest Campaign and election news, updated as it happens, on President Trump’s favourite mainstream media channel.

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Hub (Gallup, Oct 2020)

Gallup puts its 80-year pedigree in election coverage on display as it focuses in on the key metrics to put the 2020 election into context.

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Hub (Real Clear Politics, Oct 2020)

The Real Clear Politics hub offers latest poll and election data.