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Global Investment Outlook - May 2017

How should investors adjust their allocations?

With the French election having dispelled some of the unease surrounding the growth of populism, what does the future hold for global equity and fixed income markets?

Our round-up of some of the best recent papers, below, covers a variety of interesting topics and opinions. All are free to view on Savvy Investor.

Emmanuel Macron global investment outlook

Multi-assets markets outlook (monthly) Robeco, May 2017
This document by Robeco provides insights into the outlook for multi-assets, such as commodities, bond and equities. The authors provide brief analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan and China. 

John Greenwood Quarterly Economic Outlook (Invesco, Q2 2017)
(This paper is not accessible in certain geographies)
US equity markets have so far reacted positively to the early days of Trump’s presidency but is the “reflation trade” now losing momentum? John Greenwood, Chief Economist at Invesco discusses this and other macro-economic issues.

Emerging-market debt: Navigating the allocation dilemma (Eaton Vance, 2017)
This paper by Eaton Vance examines the opportunities and risks of allocating to EM debt.

VIDEO: State of the Global Economy - Investment Outlook Q2 2017 (Deutsche AM)
(This video is not accessible in certain geographies) 
In this video, Stefan Kreuzkamp, CIO Deutsche Asset Management, discusses the state of the global economy in a year dominated by politics.

Reevaluating Reflation (BlackRock, May 2017)
(This paper is not accessible in certain geographies)
This paper argues that global fixed income markets are flashing caution on the reflation trade, with yields halting their late 2016 climb. These market moves reflect a temporary flight to safety in the face of political uncertainties.

Emerging Markets 2017: Risks Remain, But Reasons for Optimism (William Blair)
The past 12 months have been fairly turbulent in emerging markets, but a number of factors support emerging market performance. This paper explores further.

Ray Dalio's Analysis: The economy looks grim in the long-term (May 2017)
In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates explains why he believes that the near-term outlook for the global economy is promising while the long-term outlook is gloomy.

U.S. Economy in a Snapshot (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2017)
This monthly publication is produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It brings together the comments and opinions of staff members on the state and outlook of the US economy.  

Global Fixed Income Outlook Q2 2017: Seeking Equilibrium (Goldman Sachs AM)
The authors of this fixed income outlook paper discuss the current state and outlook of the economy and markets.

What makes EM Fixed Income attractive – even under Trump? (BNP Paribas, 2017)
This paper by BNP Paribas explores the Emerging Markets Fixed Income asset class and its prospects under the Trump administration. The authors look at what the President has been saying and what may happen in reality as a result.