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The Global Investment Outlook Amidst U.S. Election Uncertainty

COVID-19, The Global Economy, and U.S. Presidential Elections

It is getting awfully close to the U.S. Presidential Election. With this in mind, we've provided a few pre-election thoughts from leading global asset managers on everything from potential polling issues with mail-in ballots to current assessments of candidate popularity and the likely market reactions to the event itself. 

We've also included updates on other unique issues, such as the potential for reforming the WTO, and the ramifications of Shinzo Abe's recent resignation. 

us ballot mask

Tracking COVID-19: Its spread and the responses to it (Invesco, Sep 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This is a regularly updated document from Invesco on all things COVID-19, including curve flattening statistics, lockdown stringency, vaccine progress, policy actions, and market reactions.

The Global Investment Outlook: Fall 2020 (RBC AM)

This 68-page outlook from RBC AM includes forecasts for capital markets, a macroeconomic overview, and an in-depth look at regional equity markets, as well as other updates from their Investment Strategy Committee.

Investment Considerations of a Bipolar World (Janus Henderson, Sep 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

The rise of China could spell the end of the post-Cold War order, along with the free movement of goods, technology, and capital. Daniel Grana, EM portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, describes what this 'Balkanised' world might look like.

Stress Testing the U.S. Presidential Election (Qontigo, Sep 2020)

Qontigo provides a framework for stress-testing outcomes (such as U.S. Presidential election results) on financial variables (in this case, returns on a specific index – the STOXX Global 1800 Index).

U.S. Elections: Uncertainty and opportunities (Nuveen, Sep 2020)

Nuveen's take on U.S. election uncertainty uncovers lessons from the 2016 Presidential election, policy differences between the two candidates, and market-related implications of a Democratic vs. Republican victory.

U.S. Elections: More than popcorn is needed (Federated Investors, Sep 2020)

Linda Dussel, Senior Equity Strategist at Federated Hermes, looks at the upcoming U.S. election. This brief note discusses approval ratings, polling issues, and potential equity market reactions.

U.S. Elections: Everything will be obvious once it is known (DWS, Sep 2020)

DWS strategists project (as a base-case scenario) that Joe Biden has a 60% probability of winning the upcoming U.S. Presidential election. It is an incredibly unusual year though, which makes an election such as this one even more difficult to predict.

CIO Autumn Update: Endurance test (LGIM, Sep 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

Economists from LGIM present their projections for the next six months in this 12-page outlook, which assumes slower global growth that accelerates once vaccines for COVID-19 become available sometime in 2021.

The Changing World Order: China and its currency (Ray Dalio, Sep 2020)

Ray Dalio's latest update is a continuation of his analysis of leading global empires. This chapter covers Chinese history in detail, focusing on the last 300 years and their ascendency from relative insignificance to global superpower status.

Commodity Monthly Monitor: Aug 2020 (WisdomTree)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

WisdomTree looks at macroeconomic events affecting commodity returns in August, and provides information about inventory levels, trading volume, monthly returns, and roll yields.

Cyclical Rotation in Equities Points to a Better Economy (NN IP, Sep 2020)

NN Investment Partners highlights the disparity between returns for cyclical stock sectors versus defensive stock sectors, while covering their strategic recommendations for other asset classes in this brief outlook.

Reforming the World Trade Organization (Chatham House, Sep 2020)

What would it take to reform the WTO? Amidst political tension, COVID-19 challenges, and other issues, reforming this international entity is a tricky proposition. Yet doing so may be essential to the resolution of future trade disputes and to the mitigation of related international conflicts.

North American Commercial Real Estate: Q3 2020 outlook (Manulife IM)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This link provides access to Manulife's Canadian commercial real estate outlook and U.S. CRE outlook documents, which discuss market-related updates across the office, industrial, and multi-residential sectors.

Abe’s Exit Part I — The external implications (PGIM Fixed Income, Sep 2020)

What are the implications of Shinzo Abe’s resignation upon the Western world? The Japanese Prime Minister maintained close ties to the U.S., which aided both Japanese national security and balanced out the influence of China on the surrounding region.

The Long Tail of Fiscal Stimulus (Metlife IM, Sep 2020)

Metlife Investment Management describes a peculiar issue with U.S. fiscal stimulus packages – uncertainty over the timing of consumer spending.