Global Investment Strategy August 2017
Overall, the papers selected below strike a generally optimistic tone, whilst remaining cognizant of the risks associated with geo-political tensions and interest rates at such low levels. Between them, these reports provide an in-depth analysis of a broad range of economic issues and market features.
Q3 2017 Outlook & Review (QMA)
QMA’s Q3 2017 Outlook & Review discusses the outlook for the global economy and markets. With global growth looking solid, the authors point out that sometimes "no news" is good news.
Credit Quarterly Outlook: Perplexing complacency (Robeco, July 2017)
Robeco remain concerned about complacency and expensive markets, but recognise that markets can remain complacent and expensive for a long time. There is still a lot of cash out there, seeking returns.
Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Aug 2017)
This Monthly Market Monitor by Eaton Vance presents a concise review of economic and asset class data through clear and impactful charts.
CIO View: Quarterly Investment Outlook (Deutsche AM, July 2017)
(This paper is accessible in the UK only)
Deutsche AM CIO, Stefan Kreuzkamp, examines the prospect of a "Goldilocks" economy and discuss the impact on fixed income and equity markets. He also considers the downside risks to this fairly bullish outlook.
Global Market Watch: Sailing Ahead without Headwinds (PineBridge, Aug 2017)
Trump optimism fading, eurozone outlook brightening, bearish US politics and bullish European politics are some of the main topics discussed in this report.
Can Earnings Growth Keep the Party Going? (SSGA blog, Aug 2017)
This piece by SSGA outlines the reasons why its investment teams believe earnings will continue growing. Earnings growth will continue to support elevated valuation multiples in the markets.
How emerging markets are creating a global saving shortfall (UBS AM, July 2017)
In this paper, UBS AM consider what the implications of a 'global saving glut' - as famously referred to by Ben Bernanke, turning into a shortfall by 2020.
Global Market Outlook: Goldilocks extends (Standard Chartered, Aug 2017)
This 34-page paper provides a helpful overview as well as in-depth analysis of specific asset classes and investment strategies, to give us a better picture of the global economic outlook.
Trouble with the curve (UBS Asset Management, July 2017)
This Investment Insights digs a little deeper, both tactically and strategically into what economists have dubbed 'the wage growth conundrum', and the potential implications on monetary policy and a range of asset classes.
The Intelligence Report: Politics in India and China (BNP Paribas, 31 July 2017)
Anand Shah reviews structural and macroeconomic initiatives under the Modi administration. In the second of the articles, Chi Lo considers likely changes in China’s Standing Committee of the Politburo, and the implications for structural reform.
Commodity Monthly: Risk Mispricing on Commodities (Société Générale, Aug 2017)
This monthly monitor by Société Générale looks at the outlook for commodity markets.
Japan Equity Outlook (Nikko Asset Management, July 2017)
This paper examines the implications of a possible forced change in culture of Japan's employment practices.
Everything you need to know about Q2 earnings (LGIM blog, July 2017)
LGIM provide a quick-read primer of what to expect over the next few weeks; Q2 results being very good, macro impact will be limited and LGIM maintain their 5-10% total return prediction for global equities over the next year.
Argentina - Phoenix from the Ashes or Cuckoo in the Nest? (SSGA, July 2017)
This paper explores whether recent reforms could offer Argentina a path towards inclusion in the global investment universe after years in the wilderness.
Q3 Outlook - Putting Markets in Perspective (PIMCO, Aug 2017)
In the near-term outlook, PIMCO scaled back their assessment of near-term inflationary pressures in the US and reiterated the view that inflation will remain below target in the eurozone and Japan.