Global Strategy Outlook

Global Investment Outlook - August 2016

Global Markets Outlook - August 2016

Savvy Investor is the world's leading knowledge network for institutional investors, with over 13,000 members and a research library containing 12,000 white papers, including sections dedicated to the global economic outlook and global investment outlook.

Here is our curated list of some of the best papers from the last couple of weeks, surveying the Investment Outlook as at August 2016.

woman looking out to sea

Global Fixed Income Outlook (Goldman Sachs, August 2016)
Goldman Sachs examines the outlook for global fixed income markets, exploring the market impact of Brexit, US employment, China and the likelihood of so-called "helicopter money".

Schroders Monthly Economic and Strategy Viewpoint - Aug 2016
​Schroders Monthly Report takes an in-depth look at several areas: the early BREXIT impact, the situation in Turkey, the prospect of super-expansionary fiscal policy, the emergence of equities as bond proxies and low levels of dividend cover.

Predicting Equity Returns using the Shiller CAPE (StarCapital, 2016)
This excellent paper by StarCapital discusses whether predicting stock market returns using the Shiller CAPE is an improvement compared to traditional value indicators. The paper is split into different sections covering current literature on CAPE, criticism on the CAPE approach and empirical analysis current returns estimates based on CAPE and PB.

Equity/Bond Correlation: History and Future (BlackRock, July 2016)
The equity/bond correlation is a key statistic forasset allocators; not only for portfolio construction purposes, but also for assessing the investment outlook, and especially for building equity market valuation models. In this report, the authors from BlackRock document the history of equity/bond correlation and discuss the future prospects.

Does the Emerging Market Rally Have Legs? (Calamos Investments, Aug 2016)
Emerging Markets have rallied impressively since their January low, and Calamos has become increasingly positive on the outlook. In this report the authors examine the likely sustainability of the rally, focusing on global monetary policy, fundamental data and the likelihood of continued stabilization in currencies and commodity markets.

Death of the Risk-Free Rate (Research Affiliates, July 2016)
The idea of a risk-free rate of return underlies much of modern investment theory. In this paper, Chris Brightman argues that the "death" of the risk-free rate should impact our view of monetary policy, investment risk and asset allocation policy.

On the road to recovery - EM debt strategy (JP Morgan, August 2016)
Emerging market debt markets have had a very good 2016 so far. In this paper, JP Morgan explores the impact that global factors and country-specific developments are likely to have over the remainder of this year.

Slow Productivity Growth: Cracking the Code (BBVA, August 2016)
The recent slump in productivity is a real concern. If the trend continues, real wage growth will remain exceptionally low and low real interest rates will persist. This insightful paper examines the causes and offers some solutions.