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Investment Outlook 2021: Part 3

The Blue Wave and the Timing of the New Normal

With the run-off elections in the state of Georgia now decided, all eyes will be on how successful the Biden administration will be in honouring its election commitments to rolling out COVID-19 vaccinations. Time will tell how the consumer responds and whether additional fiscal stimulus packages will kick-start the global economy into a new, post COVID-19 environment.

In this final selection of investment outlook 2021 white papers, a narrow consensus view is emerging; one that suggests an economic recovery in H2 and a subsequent rebound in corporate earnings to pre-pandemic levels. However, as some commentators suggest, and particularly given the move in equity markets, perhaps a lot of this recovery is now priced in.

 

discarded covid masks 2021


RECENT INVESTMENT OUTLOOK PAPERS


2021 Global Risks (MetLife Investment Management, Dec 2020)

In this paper, MIM strategists present their outlook for 2021, a year which they believe will be punctuated by varying rates of growth around the world.

2021 Outlook: Can early tailwinds be sustained? (MFS, Dec 2020)

MFS stalwarts Rob Almeida and Erik Weisman offer their views on what 2021 may bring for investors.

Time to Look Ahead to a New Year – 2022 (PineBridge Investments, Jan 2021)

This brief paper by PineBridge Investments looks beyond the narrow consensus view that’s formed around the likely outcome for 2021 – mass vaccinations, etc. Unless this expectation is dreadfully wrong, investors can start looking to 2022 now.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Jan 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

This monthly paper by Eaton Vance presents a detailed review of global economic and asset class data using clear and helpful charts.

Monthly Market Outlook: Markets will mirror vaccination success (Robeco, 2021)

Robeco’s view, as presented in this paper, is that the deployment of vaccines and their take-up will largely determine market moves during Q1 2021.

Trends That Will Define 2021 and Beyond (McKinsey & Company, Jan 2021)

This paper by McKinsey and Company outlines trends that are likely to exist in the ‘next normal’ of the post-pandemic era.

House View Q1 2020 (Aviva Investors)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This is the latest quarterly House View report from Aviva Investors. It offers a compendium of views and analysis from across the firm.

Global Economic Prospects (World Bank, Jan 2021)

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report outlines the fragility of the global economic recovery, and highlights some of the many challenges that policymakers still face.

The Battle of the Vs: Virus versus vaccine (QMA, Dec 2020)

Senior investment professionals from across PGIM discuss the prospects for the global economy and markets in 2021.

Global Investment Views (Amundi, Jan 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi outlines four factors that investors need to pay attention to if they are to navigate the challenges posed by a potential reflation narrative in 2021.

Looking into 2021 and Beyond... (Federated Hermes, Dec 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser to the international business of Federated Hermes, gives his thoughts on the likely shape of the global economic recovery amidst the range of conflicting challenges and political tensions out there.

2021 Outlook: Vulnerability and resilience (Franklin Templeton, 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Franklin Templeton strategists remain cautious near-term for the year ahead, but see global growth accelerating as vaccines become available and central bank support remains in place.

Q1 2021 - Investment outlook (American Century)

American Century anticipates a strong recovery in corporate earnings, perhaps approaching pre-pandemic levels, as a key facet in a positive outlook for markets in 2021.

Macro Quarterly: Q1 2021 outlook (UBS AM)

In UBS AM’s outlook for Q1 2021, they suggest that market moves are likely to be largely determined by the timing and release of various vaccine solutions. They also note the increasing risk of higher taxation and an increasing likelihood of anti-trust regulation from the Biden administration.

10 Predictions for 2021: Already pricing in recovery? (Nuveen, Jan 2021)

Nuveen presents their annual top 10 predictions for 2021 whilst revisiting those made in 2020. They examine how much of the economic recovery is already priced in by markets.

2021 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook (Deloitte)

Deloitte’s outlook paper on the banking and capital markets reflects the views of over 200 industry leaders and illustrates how companies are adapting business models to better suit a post COVID-19 recovery.

2021 US Wealth Management Outlook (Enterprising Investor)

This article looks at how the US wealth management industry has adapted to the changing needs of customers and how the positive changes to the customer-advisor relationship can be taken into 2021 and beyond.

2021 Outlook - Recovery and rotation (BlueBay Asset Management)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

BlueBay AM’s annual outlook piece highlights a positive view for both global growth and risk assets. However, it is unlikely to be entirely plain sailing with several potential obstacles to be negotiated on the path to economic recovery.


PODCASTS


Podcast: Reviewing 2020 and previewing 2021 (Wells Fargo AM, Dec 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States

Senior Investment Strategist for Multi-Asset Solutions at Wells Fargo AM Dr Brian Jacobsen opines on how investors can best prepare themselves for 2021.

Podcast: 2021 — A great year for risky assets? (Robeco)

In this podcast, Robeco veterans Jeroen Blokland and Peter van der Welle discuss whether value stocks can return to favour after an extended period in the wilderness, as well as whether global stocks might for once outperform their US equivalents.

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