Investment Outlook 2021 and Beyond: Part 1
Will COVID-19 vaccines be a shot in the arm for global growth?
As turkeys get pardoned at the U.S. White House, and as NORAD cranks up the computing power for the annual tradition of tracking Santa’s journey, (now in its 65th year!) so the first Investment Outlook papers for 2021 fall upon us – but perhaps not quite as gently as the first snowflakes!
This year's first dedicated take on the prospects for 2021 sees commentators fixed on the timing and successful rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines as the primary determinant of when and how fast economies might recover in 2021. There is a whiff of potential inflation in the air, and talk of the return of cyclicality leads some to suggest the impending return of the long-lost value factor (perhaps it was just sleeping after all!)
2021 OUTLOOK
2021 Investment Outlook Hub: Investing beyond the pandemic (PineBridge Investments)
PineBridge's 2021 investment outlook discusses a combination of three P's – the pandemic, politics, and policy – which will be critical to setting expectations for everything from interest rates to asset valuations in 2021.
Investment Outlook 2021: Tackling the trilemma (Robeco, Nov 2020)
This 30-page report discusses Robeco's views for 2021, for each of the major asset classes. Robeco argues that the year ahead will be a constructive one for risk assets, although much will depend on the rollout of a working vaccine to a large part of the world's population.
Investing in 2021: Reframing the future (UBS AM, Nov 2020)
2020 was characterised by a global pandemic, a sharp recession, and a dramatic US Presidential election. The UBS 2021 Outlook suggests that 2021 is set to be the year of the vaccine, pressaging a sustained and widespread economic recovery.
2021 Investment Outlook Hub (Wellington Management, Nov 2020)
This 2021 Outlook Hub sets out Wellington Management's market expectations for 2021, beginning with an economic and multi-strategy outlook.
2021 Investment Outlook - Market rotations in an uneven recovery (Amundi)
For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States
In this 25-page presentation, Amundi sets out its investment convictions for 2021 across the major asset classes and risk factors. Three different economic scenarios are presented, each with different market implications.
5 AND 10 YEAR RETURN FORECASTS
10 Year Capital Market Assumptions (QMA)
In their latest Capital Markets Assumptions publication, QMA updates their estimates for asset returns, following the recent moves in equity markets and spread tightening seen in credit markets.
2021 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (Invesco)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
This 88-page, 2021 edition of their Capital Market Assumptions covers both 5- and 10- year return forecasts and is designed to aid investors in determining both tactical and strategic asset allocation policies.
2021 THEMES AND MARKET DRIVERS
Inflation Regime Roadmap (Man Group, 2020)
In this excellent 30-page report, Man Group sets out their argument that a new inflationary regime is in the making. It will come about as a result of policy changes, which will create the conditions for a period of higher inflation that could persist for the coming decade.
Themes to Guide Investment Decisions Next Year (Neuberger Berman, Nov 2020)
For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies
Neuberger Berman outlines the critical themes that are likely to influence investment decisions for 2021.
Will the Dollar go Off-Script in 2021? (PineBridge, Nov 2020)
In this report from PineBridge Investments, the authors raise concerns about further fiscal spending that may only produce a short-term bump in US growth, rather than the sustained long-term initiatives that are needed to provide support to the US dollar.