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Here are two recent papers that we highly recommend:
World Economic Forum - The 2016 Global Risks Report
This is a fascinating document, with a much wider perspective than most investment reports.
It’s well worth 10 minutes of your time to skim the highlights of this 100 page paper, to gain a better understanding of both the global risks and global trends in the world economy today.
The WEF authors consider, in detail, the full range of risks that could impact global economies and markets in 2016. It considers both the likelihood of the risk, and the likely impact of that risk.
The types of risk are considered under a number of headings: economic (energy price shock, deflation, market failure, asset bubble), environmental (extreme weather, climate-change failure, catastrophe), geopolitical (war, terrorism, state collapse, weapons of mass destruction), societal (involuntary migration, water crises, infectious disease) and technological (cyber-attacks, data fraud, misuse of technology, failure of critical infrastructure).
These risks are also considered from a geographical perspective; considering the risks that are most relevant within each region of the world.
The document also studies the key trends that are impacting global economies and markets at the present time. These include: ageing populations, increasing nationalism, polarization of societies, a rise in chronic disease, a rise in cyber dependency, rising urbanization and shifts in power.
The implications of these trends are considered, and their inter-connectedness with the risks above are examined.
BNY Mellon - Managing Geopolitical Risk in Investment Decision-Making
You may understand the geopolitical risks that could potentially upset and destabilise investment markets, but how do you factor these risks into your investment decision making?
This 30 page paper from the BNY Mellon Center for Global Investment and Market Intelligence takes readers on a brief tour of the history of geopolitical risk over the last 200 years, examining the market impact of major events.
The authors then examine the major geopolitical risks, both for the next 10 years and as at the current time, ranking them by likelihood and likely impact.
It finishes by setting out some of the major geopolitical questions that twenty-first century asset allocators should be asking.
We hope you discover why Savvy Investor has become an instant hit among pension funds, CIOs, investment consultants, asset managers and other investors.