Global Strategy Outlook

Global Investment Outlook - September 2017

Markets outlook for Sept-Dec 2017

In the last few months, investors have seen a strong euro and a robust US bond market, while equity markets have been resilient in the face of geo-political concerns. This has happened against a backdrop of shifting expectations on monetary policy. What do the next few months have in store?

Our monthly roundup of the best "market outlook" pieces includes some interesting discussions: Fidelity considers the risk of another Asian crisis; UBS offers some fresh thoughts on demographics; BlackRock warns investors not to underestimate the impact of technology on the global economy.

September Investment Outlook white papers autumn leaves

Multi-asset markets outlook (monthly) Robeco, Sept 2017
This 25 page document from Robeco provides insights into the outlook for the global economy, equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities and FX.

Another Asian financial crisis? All roads lead to Beijing (Fidelity Int'l)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK and Europe)
Ever since the Asian financial crisis, pockets of risk remain. This paper by Fidelity International argues that the next big global shock could come from China wrestling with its dependence on credit.

"Wellington 360" - key investment trends & themes (Wellington, Sept 2017)
This issue of "Wellington 360" includes discussions on the Chinese economy, Japanese reflation, EM debt, US cyclicals and the impact of climate change.

Tech Transforms the Financial Landscape: Don't Underestimate It (BlackRock)
The authors of this paper argue that investors should refocus on secular forces, rather than on the noise of economic data. The crux of this report is that we are midway through a huge, supply-side cost adjustment, part of which could be described as the "Amazon effect".

Germany's misunderstood election (Deutsche AM, Sept 2017)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK)

It's tempting to dismiss Germany's elections as a non-event. Chances are that investor apathy is quite a rational response to what has been a very boring campaign. How high those chances are, however, is surprisingly hard to say.

The Draghi Put: Five years in Five Charts (Fidelity Int'l, 2017)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK and Europe)

Fidelity International offers five charts which summarise European policy and progress over the last five years, concluding that the ECB should avoid letting go of the helm just yet.

Global Market Outlook (Standard Chartered Bank, Sept 2017)
Standard Chartered's latest outlook paper for the global economy provides a helpful overview as well as detailed analysis of specific asset classes and investment strategies.

Solvency II: Time to embrace HY and EMD (Fidelity Int'l, 2017)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK and Europe)

It is a common perception that Solvency II penalises high yield bonds and emerging market debt - but the costs are lower than is often thought. This paper explains further.

Global Outlook (Economist Intelligence Unit, Sept 2017)
This report by the Economist Intelligence Unit provides new forecasts for different economies around the world, as well as insights into exchange rates, global trade, commodity prices, and more.

Demographics: Human Capital - power to the people (UBS, Aug 2017)
What role should the study of structural population trends play in investors' analytical armoury, when shorter-term market sentiment seems to offer the key to performance? This UBS paper explores further.

U.S. Economy in a Snapshot (FRBNY, Sept 2017)
The U.S. Economy in a Snapshot compiles observations of staff members of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Research and Statistics Group. 

The Case for Growth Stocks (Lazard, Sept 2017)
Developing consistent and effective models for company growth has long been a challenge for quantitative investors. The Lazard report examines how to unlock more consistent alpha.

Long-Term U.S. Dollar Cycle Has Probably Peaked (Pictet WM, Sept 2017)
The upcycle in the U.S. dollar that began in 2011 has faded, but further depreciation of the greenback may be limited and there is a good chance of a near-term recovery against the euro.

Update on Inflation (Lazard, Sept 2017)
This Lazard update review trends in inflation, taking a bottom-up look at sources of recent weakness, revisit the ambiguities surrounding inflation, and outline key sources of cyclical pressures. 

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