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Global Investment Outlook H2 2021

The Great Developed World Unlocking: What happens next?

As countries in the developed world begin tentatively to unlock, investors may begin to see how bad the actual damage has been on businesses and livelihoods. Will there be a resurgence in retail sales as people 'gear up to go out' or has the Covid-19 induced move online dealt a final blow for retailers that may have just been surviving on rent waivers and government-funded employee subsidies? Will we get an autumn resurgence in Covid-19 cases? Time will tell.

Among this selection of papers are several that focus on the key issue of the moment, inflation. Several papers offer comprehensive views across asset classes and markets, some look at likely post-pandemic themes, while others analyse how moves in markets during the first half of 2021 have impacted on longer-term return forecasts and assumptions.

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Global Investment Outlook H2 2021


H2 2021 Investment Outlook – Inflation blows on markets (Amundi)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi’s paper notes that extraordinary monetary policy is now standard practice but wonders how long that policy can continue without losing control of inflation.

Global Investment Outlook – Summer 2021 (RBC GAM)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

RBC GAM’s 70-page Global Investment Outlook paper offers a comprehensive insight into the prospects for economies, as well as equity, currency, and fixed income markets.

2021 Mid-year Investment Outlook – Hub (PineBridge Investments, Jul 2021)

With inflation as a key top of mind concern for investors, PineBridge gathered insights from their Chief Global Economist and Fixed Income, Equities, and Multi-Asset teams about what investors may face over the rest of the year, and those risks and opportunities most likely to emerge.

Mid-year Outlook: Growth is peaking – What comes next? (Nuveen, Jun 2021)

Nuveen’s paper suggests the world is approaching peak economic and earnings growth, at least for this cycle – which raises questions about inflation, rising interest rates and market valuations.

2021 Mid-Year Investment Outlook (Invesco)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco offers their mid-year investment outlook in which they present one probable and two possible scenarios reflecting the breadth and range of prospects that lie ahead.

Key Themes for the New Normal Economy (Global X ETFs, May 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United Kingdom

Global X ETFs looks at some of the new trends that may impact economies in the post-pandemic new normal.

The Stars Align for Europe’s Recovery (WisdomTree Investments blog, Jun 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

WisdomTree Investments looks at the factors behind an European post-pandemic recovery.

Mid-year Outlook: Guarding for inflation (Franklin Templeton, Jul 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

Professionals from across Franklin Templeton examine the uneven global recovery and offer their thoughts for the second half of 2021.

Mid-Year 2021 Investment Outlook – Hub (Wellington Management)

In Wellington Management's mid-year Investment hub, they invite investors to examine a range of actionable ideas across a range of asset classes.

H2 Outlook: Stay the course! (Candriam, Jun 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Candriam believes that Covid-19 may persist for the rest of the year, but that vaccines will mitigate the worst excesses, and most economies will avoid further lockdowns.

Q3 Outlook (QMA, Jun 2021)

QMA examine the prospects for economies and markets during Q3, and remain overweight on stocks, commodities, and real estate. They consider a wage-price spiral of inflation possible if rates are left too lax for too long.

Mid-year Outlook (Capital Group, Jun 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Capital Group offers its mid-year outlook in which it remains positive on markets, believing inflation is likely to be transitory.


Longer Term Return Forecasts and Capital Market Assumptions


2021 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Q2 Update (Invesco, Jun 2021)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco updates its long-term capital market assumptions and suggests investors may need to diversify out of traditional assets if they are to meet their investment goals. These assumptions are made available across a range of currencies.

Panorama: Mid-year outlook – Economy in recovery (UBS AM, 2021)

In their mid-year outlook, experts from UBS AM take stock of the various competing influences on markets and how these impact upon their 5-year forecasts.

2021 Capital Market Assumptions (American Century, Jun 2021)

American Century updates both their short- and long-term forecasts across 28 asset classes. Short term returns for a 60/40 portfolio stand at 3.8%, while 20-year forecasts are 6.0%.

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