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Global Investment Outlook: Feb 2020

Traps Remain for the Unwary.

As we approach the mid-point of the first quarter of 2020, a number of market participants have updated or refined their thoughts on how the rest of 2020 might unfold. Political risks appear to have subsided somewhat with President Trump's non-impeachment, Britain's actual departure from the EU-incident free - (so far!) and the first stage of a US - China trade deal in the books have helped to assuage investors worst fears. Markets are trying to evaluate the potential impact on company earnings and global GDP growth of the coronavirus outbreak, but have been partially reassured that the PBOC was on standby to inject plenty of liquidity at the first signs of trouble.

Notwithstanding the positive start to the year, there remain plenty of potential pitfalls ready to trap the unwary. This collection of papers highlights a range of current institutional investment thinking on asset allocation and market positioning.

venus fly trap

Risk & Reward Q1 2020: Research and Investment Strategies (Invesco)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco presents their detailed Q1 2020 Risk and Reward report in which they explore several factor-based themes, including a 'buy and hold' strategy for bonds, integration of low volatility style exposure into core factor investments, and factor timing in equities.

2020 survival guide: US elections, hidden risks, and secular themes (Wellington Management, Jan 2020)

In this paper, Adam Berger, Multi-Asset Strategist at Wellington Management, explores how markets might react to U.S. election results. He notes several hidden risks and focuses on thematic investing as a potential antidote to a low-interest rate, low-growth environment.

20/20 vision: Insights for institutional investors (Nuveen, Jan 2020)

Nuveen's strategists have refined their 2020 Outlook. This latest update offers insights into why diversification matters.

Multi-Asset Market Outlook (Robeco, Feb 2020)

Robeco's Monthly Multi-Asset Market Outlook document highlights the prospects for a range of different asset classes including equities, bonds and FX. It also provide a brief economic analysis for the major world economies.

Capital Markets: Observations and insights (Alger, Jan 2020)

Alger presents their Winter 2020 outlook in which they suggest the U.S. presidential election may play less of a factor in determining market outcomes than many anticipate.

Webinar 4 Mar, 10.30am: Q1 2020 Market Outlook (FTSE Russell)

Join Philip Lawlor, MD of Global Markets Research, FTSE Russell, for a 30-minute webinar and Q&A where he will share his analysis of global bond and equity markets.

Asset Classes Views: Detecting tipping points (Amundi AM, Feb 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi AM strategists highlight the relationships between macro-economic factors and long-term trends in asset prices, drawing upon the latest insights and discussions from within the company. They outline complications with late-cycle investing but believe that recovery is likely.

Q&A: Navigating a sentiment crash (QMA, Jan 2020)

QMA's MD and Portfolio Manager Gavin Smith PhD investigates the ways in which investors can both navigate and potentially profit from a crash in sentiment.

Asset Allocation: Bulls are not immune to the virus (NN IP, Feb 2020)

In their most recent asset allocation paper, NN Investment Partners outline recent changes while offering their predictions for markets.

Asset Allocation Monthly (BNP Paribas, Feb 2020)

This monthly Asset Allocation document from BNP Paribas AM highlights their key views on macro, markets and investment themes.

Investment Outlook Q1 2020: Slowing but going (Fidelity International)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe

Fidelity International's latest quaterly outlook publication focuses on the firm's views on all major asset classes.

Q1 Outlook: Mind the traps (LGIM, Jan 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

In their latest quarterly outlook document, LGIM note that the global economic background is somewhat more positive and market positioning less stretched, while some political risks have diminished.

Global Perspectives: Multi-Asset Outlook (BMO GAM, Jan 2020)

BMO GAM's Chief Economist Steven Bell assesses the prospects for economies and markets in 2020.

Global Macro Trends: Play Your Game (KKR, Jan 2020)

KKR's 60-page report outlines the 'value' that they perceive as existing in the 'middle' part of the equity markets. It notes that valuations appear stretched for those in the top decile, while the bottom decile contains 'value traps' as companies face innovation-driven structural headwinds.