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Global Investment Outlook - Sep 2020

Macro Themes and Market Outlooks for September 2020

The global economic recovery is flattening out from its steep trajectory during Q2, but uncertainty still looms large. There is a presidential election coming up in the United States, and sectors that have not yet fully recovered from the effects of the first viral wave would be devastated if a second wave fully materialized.

The following papers predominantly assess the outlook for major global asset classes, while also providing updates on central bank policy rates, inflation, other macroeconomic data, and the likelihood that a COVID-19 vaccine will soon be available.

investment outlook sep


Multi-Asset Market Outlook (Robeco, Sep 2020)

The featured article in this month's multi-asset outlook from Robeco is on a shift to a neutral stance on high yield (HY) and investment grade (IG) debt, as both asset classes have gained considerable ground over the past 4-5 months.

COVID-19: Assessing its spread and the responses to it (Invesco, Sep 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco analysts present an in-depth update to previously released data on lockdown measures, consumption, viral infections, public policy, and other coronavirus-related concerns across the globe.

Cross Asset Investment Strategy (Amundi, Sep 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

Amundi Asset Management remains selectively bullish on EM debt, as spreads are not yet near their pre-viral levels. Their 32-page multi-asset outlook covers their viewpoint on every major asset class, as well as insight into U.S. elections, ECB monetary policy, and other thematic topics.

Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Sep 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

Eaton Vance's Monthly Market Monitor provides 44 pages of charts and graphs on fixed income markets, equity valuation, currencies, and asset allocation ideas, all updated with data through to 31 August.

Investment Strategy: Quo vadis the US Dollar? (PineBridge Investments, Sep 2020)

Is the recent weakening of the US dollar the beginning of a longer term trend? PineBridge explains why this may not be the case, and why dollar weakness may be attributable to more short-to-medium term factors.

Multi-Asset Allocation Views: Earnings season (Aviva Investors, Aug 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Surprisingly, earnings came in above expectations in many instances during Q2, because expectations were set incredibly low. However, in aggregate the Q2 earnings results were a bit of a mixed bag.

Q3 2020 Capital Markets View: Global Edition (MFS, Aug 2020)

This quarterly paper from MFS begins with an overview of global equity markets and policy rates at central banks, before going into country-specific equity outlooks and fixed income insights.

Allocation Views (Franklin Templeton, Aug 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the EMEA region

A persistent global economic recovery in this case necessitates persistent progress in dealing with the coronavirus. With this uncertainty in mind, Franklin Templeton discusses their multi-asset allocation views for the month.

The AIQ Podcast: The source of the next crisis (Aviva Investors, Aug 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This episode of Aviva Investor's AIQ podcast series covers unexpected risks, natural disasters, geopolitical stressors between the U.S. and China, and the COVID-19 recovery.

Markets at an Inflection Point: Six working assumptions (Manulife IM, Aug 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

The economic recovery stalls out, and fiscal support will diminish. Manulife Investment Management strategists discuss these and several other key considerations in this brief macroeconomic outlook.

Markets Pricing in Improved Growth and Inflation Outlook (NN IP blog, Aug 2020)

Monetary policy support has provided a backstop for markets, and despite some news of additional viral infections in Europe and Asia, vaccines may be available as early as Q1 of 2021.

Post-Epidemic Economic Recovery: Slow, but not so steady (DWS blog, Sep 2020)

DWS sees signs of the recovery losing a bit of momentum, and of the global economy experiencing a flatter, but more uneven economic trajectory. For the most part, developed countries seem better prepared for the possibility of a surge in viral cases.

Spain’s Second Wave: How worried should we be? (LGIM blog, Aug 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

LGIM looks at the possibility of Spain experiencing a second wave of coronavirus infections, digging deep into recent testing data and its implications.

Byron Wien: The Nuances May Provide the Truth (Blackstone blog, Aug 2020)

Byron Wein from Blackstone discusses a COVID-19 vaccine, the outlook for specific sectors, fiscal and monetary stimulus packages, the U.S. elections, and other topics that arose in recent discussion groups.

Will COVID-19 vaccines save the world? (McKinsey & Company, Aug 2020)

When will a COVID-19 vaccine exist, and how beneficial will it be? Will the first round of vaccines be sufficient to kill off the spread of the coronavirus and restore economic health worldwide?

Election Insights: Health care gains an edge (Janus Henderson blog, Sep 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

Given the year that we have had so far, as we near the U.S. presidential election, health care (and health care reform) is a critical topic. This Q&A looks at how the discourse about health care is changing and what the sector-related implications might be.

Sector Effects During Elections (S&P Dow Jones Indices, Sep 2020)

A high dispersion of returns is great for stock pickers, but so are other strategies such as sector rotation or using sector weights to express tactical views. In fact, sector-related trends seem to rise in importance during U.S. presidential election years.