Top Research Papers on the Investment Outlook
At the present time, global equity markets remain within 2-3% of all-time highs, despite the start of a new phase of monetary policy in a number of key economies. What do the coming months have in store?
Our monthly roundup of the best "market outlook" pieces includes some interesting discussions: BlackRock examines the drivers of low interest rates; Deutsche considers the seasonality of equity market returns; Citi presents us with 10 more "disruptive innovations" to stop and think about. All fascinating stuff!
CIO View: Quarterly Investment Outlook (Deutsche Asset Management, Q4 2017)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK)
What can we expect from the central banks? Deutsche Asset Management CIO, Stefan Kreuzkamp, shares his thoughts on this and other market-related activity in this recent video.
Global Macro Outlook: The safety premium driving low rates (BlackRock, Nov 2017)
BlackRock explores the drivers of the low interest rate paradigm, concluding that low rates stem from risk aversion, tepid potential growth (ageing populations, poor productivity) and central bank success in achieving predictable, stable inflation.
Disruptive Innovations: Ten More Things to Stop and Think About (Citi GPS, 2017)
This edition of Citi GPS Disruptive Innovations explores ten technological innovations to get excited about! These innovations could be disruptive and change the future across sectors.
Investment Insights: The complacency conundrum (UBS AM, Nov 2017)
Black Monday, October 19 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6%. UBS look back thirty years at some of the indicators which are now echoing uncomfortably.
S&P 500® 2016: Global Sales (S&P Dow Jones Indices)
This S&P Dow Jones paper looks at 2016 sales of the S&P 500 and reflects on a fall in sales from overseas, occurring for the second successive year.
FTSE Russell China Bond Research Report
China is home to the world’s third largest domestic currency bond market. This latest report from FTSE Russell discusses Chinese liberalisation measures, anti-leverage policies and considerations around index inclusion.
The Intelligence Report: Venezuela and China (BNP Paribas AM, Nov 2017)
This issue discusses Venezuela's precarious debt situation and President Maduro's recent announcement on debt restructuring. It also considers China's Communist Party Congress and the arrival of a new era in China's politics.
Q4 2017 Outlook & Review (QMA)
How much longer can the US expansion last? QMA explains how they believe the odds of a downturn before the end of 2018 are low. QMA's Q4 2017 Outlook & Review discusses this "To Be Continued" theme.
2018 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (JP Morgan AM)
The 2017 edition explores the complex interplay between secular themes (including global aging and technological innovation) and cyclical factors, that will influence asset returns over a long-term investment horizon.
Asia Connect Q4 2017 (BNP Paribas AM)
BNP Paribas AM believes the acceleration of the earnings cycle of Asian equities over the next few years can support a continued strong performance. Consequently, they believe any pullback in Asian equities represents a buying opportunity.
Money Market Forecast, Fourth Quarter (SSGA, Oct 2017)
This SSGA report explains what's been happening in money markets recently and explores the prospects for the remainder of 2017.