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Global Investment Outlook - June 2017

Global Macro Outlook - June 2017

In the papers below, BNP Paribas analyses the 5-7 year investment outlook, while Ray Dalio of Bridgewater examines the long-term prognosis for the global economy - and doesn't like what he sees.

Goldman Sachs asks if inflation is back, while PIMCO discusses the timing of the next recession. Meanwhile, Robeco's ever-popular markets outlook is fresh off the press.

Theresa May June investment outlook papers

2017 Mid-Year Outlook: Great Expectations for Global Growth (PineBridge)
​PineBridge Investments is bullish on the outlook for economic growth. In this paper, they argue that developed economies will see movement towards synchronized growth in 2017, with economic fundamentals drowning out political noise.

2017 And Beyond: A Medium-Term Asset Allocation Outlook (BNP Paribas)
Building optimal portfolios in the current environment is a challenge, but integrating regulatory changes and introducing new ways of allocating assets at the same time can be even more daunting. This paper provides some helpful insights.

Multi-asset markets outlook (monthly) Robeco, June 2017
This document by Robeco provides insights into the outlook for multi-assets, such as commodities, bond and equities. The authors provide brief analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan and China.

Under Pressure: Is Inflation Back? (GSAM, June 2017)
This quarterly report by Goldman Sachs Asset Management examines recent inflation trends in developed economies.

The economy looks grim in the long-term (Ray Dalio)
In this blog post, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates explains why he believes that the near-term outlook for the global economy is promising while the long-term outlook is gloomy.

Hung Parliament - Minority Report (LGIM, June 2017)
In a surprising result, the UK general election ended in a hung parliament. Theresa May's gamble has failed to pay off. This brief blog post explores some of the several possible outcomes that could evolve over the coming days.

Macro Perspectives: The Next Recession (PIMCO, June 2017)
Even though the U.S. economic expansion enters its ninth year this month, a recession over our six-to 12-month cyclical horizon looks quite unlikely.

Secular Outlook: Pivot Points (PIMCO, June 2017)
In a world of insecure stability, investors must prepare for five key policy pivots that will test markets. This insightful paper from PIMCO explores further.

10 Things You Should Know About EM Stocks (OppenheimerFunds, June 2017)
In this 15-page paper by OppenheimerFunds, the authors present 10 factors that they believe are supporting the rotation to Emerging Market equities.

World Economic Outlook: Better, but not good enough (OECD, June 2017)
This 15-page paper by the OECD provides a helpful snapshot of the state and outlook of the world economy.

UK Election Shock Deepens Brexit Uncertainty (SSGA, June 2017)
British voters once again defied conventional wisdom and the majority of pollsters by denying Prime Minister Theresa May the larger majority she hoped would strengthen her Brexit negotiating hand.

Treasuries-Bund Trade Is About to Get Interesting (Myron Scholes, June 2017)
This brief paper has been written by Myron Scholes (Nobel Prize Winner - Economic Sciences, 1997) and Ash Alankar, both of Janus Henderson Investors. In it, they discuss why the Treasuries-Bund trade is about to get interesting.

Secular Stagnation and the Rise of Populism (James Montier, GMO, 2017)
In this paper, James Montier and Philip Pilkington of GMO argue that the rise of populism has its roots in the same sources that have given rise to so-called “secular stagnation.”

China's FX policy tactics and the outlook for renminbi (BNP Paribas, June 2017)
The PBoC has shifted its foreign exchange policy again to take advantage of the weaker dollar to depreciate the trade-weighted exchange rate while keeping the CNY-USD crossrate stable. What'll be the long-term impact on the renminbi?

Secular Outlook: Pivot Points (PIMCO, June 2017)
In a world of insecure stability, investors must prepare for five key policy pivots that will test markets. These are discussed in this PIMCO paper.

Fed Funds Rate Back to 3%: What is normal? (Pictet WM, May 2017)
Analysis of the ‘neutral’ rate of interest suggests there is considerable market complacency surrounding the potential for further hikes in the fed funds rate. This paper by Pictet Wealth Management discusses further.

Manipulation in the VIX? (2017)
This paper discusses manipulation in the VIX. It has been authored by John M. Griffin and Amin Shams of University of Texas at Austin, Department of Finance.

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