Global Investment Outlook: What Happens Next?

Paradigm Shifts, Secular Trends, and the Global Market Outlook

The great schism between asset prices and the real economy is becoming more palpable. Remarkably, some indices have now recovered all of what was lost during the pandemic itself. But there are signs that the optimistic sentiment underlying such a quick recovery may be starting to fade, causing investors and allocators to once again begin to wonder - where to from here?

Despite the proverbial fog rolling over the global investment landscape, the following set of investment outlook papers aims to shed light on the present situation. From reviews of intra-pandemic performance to post-pandemic paradigm shifts and reconfigured multi-year projections for global asset classes, we hope that this list provides a bit of lucidity.

What to Expect after the Great Pandemic of 2020 (BNP Paribas AM, Jul 2020)

This 40-page paper from BNP Paribas Asset Management describes the current prospects for global asset classes, as well as their medium-term return forecasts for a period covering the next 5-7 years.

Four Paradigm Shifts? Macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 (NN IP, Jul 2020)

NN Investment Partners examines four potential paradigm shifts stemming from debt-financed investment, deglobalization, inflation, and innovation-based growth as well as the theses behind them.

Podcast: New economy sectors and Asia's recovery (Matthews Asia, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

Matthews Asia Portfolio Manager Michael J. Oh, CFA, features in this 16-minute podcast answering questions about P/E multiples, the economic recovery in Asia, and opportunities in Chinese equity sectors.

Fixed Income Perspectives (Janus Henderson, 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

Janus Henderson presents a collection of four thematic papers for fixed income investors covering the US Fed's resistance to negative rates, opportunities within structured securities, and other topics.

It's Time To Look East (Baillie Gifford, Jul 2020)

Baillie Gifford's Frederick Snell suggests that investors should consider the relative attractiveness of Asian markets. They were first into the COVID-19 crisis and things are returning to normality but notably without the financial burden that has been needed to support developed world economies.

2020 Mid-Year Outlook: A long-term perspective (Capital Group, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This mid-year outlook from Capital Group examines the shape of the recovery, ways in which downturns such as the present one have fostered innovation, stock-picking opportunities, and other asset class-specific implications.

The Future of Europe: Crises, choices, consequences (Invesco, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

The COVID-19 crisis has had unique implications for the European Union, which responded by increasing monetary support from the ECB and by passing two additional stimulus bills (ERRI and NextGenEU).

Uncertain Market Trajectory in the Second Half of 2020? (Candriam, Jul 2020)

Though not exactly considered a 'black swan' event, Candriam looks at the present crisis, the trajectory of the global recovery, risk premiums, and opportunities in emerging markets.

Macro and Cross-Asset Research: Learning from Covid-19 (Amundi, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States

In their cross-asset and macroeconomic update piece for July 2020, Amundi focuses upon lessons learned from the COVID-19 crisis and the implications that these lessons have for global multi-asset institutional investors.

Joe Zidle and Byron Wien: Blackstone Q3 2020 Webcast

In this 56-minute webcast, Blackstone's duo of economic pundits Byron Wien and Joe Zidle, discuss their current view of the economic recovery, and key risks and opportunities on the horizon in the third quarter.

Policy Moves into the Great Unknown (Aviva Investors, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

In this lengthy thought-piece, Aviva Investors discusses the unknown implications of expansive monetary policy actions, the risk of inflation, and the ongoing reversion to economic nationalism.

Q3 Outlook: Optimism versus reality (LGIM, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

LGIM explores the potential disconnect between market prices and the real economy, elucidating their own views about investor over-confidence and what this implies for global asset classes.

Three Themes: China, Sustainability, and Value's Evolution (Robeco, Jul 2020)

Robeco explains why the COVID-19 crisis may have accentuated the importance of sustainability, and how value may come back into favor, while making the case for Chinese equity allocations.

Multi-Asset Views: Growth momentum is improving (Franklin Templeton, Jul 2020)

Franklin Templeton presents a brief overview of global macroeconomic conditions including inflation expectations and supportive policy measures before moving into their multi-asset recommendations.

Assessing the Spread of the Disease and Responses to it (Invesco, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

This Invesco slide deck is organized into four sections - tracking COVID-19 cases and curve flattening, macroeconomic scenarios, global market reactions, and policy responses.

Three Emerging Trends in a Changing World (UBS AM, Jul 2020)

UBS Asset Management's Head of UK Fixed Income looks at three secular trends that are especially relevant for global bond markets - the end of austerity, fading multilateralism, and social injustice.

When Will We Learn our Lessons on Pandemics? (Aviva Investors, 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Have governments learned their lesson from the present crisis, or do we remain exposed to a further round of risk by another infectious disease? Aviva looks at systemic health risks, lockdown risk, and potential future pandemics.

U.S Economic Outlook: An assessment of monetary policy (DWS, Jul 2020)

This DWS paper delves into the large scale asset purchases made by the US Fed in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, commenting on their effectiveness and potential inflationary outcomes.

U.S. Economic Indicators from the Richmond Fed - latest

This is a regular chartbook of monthly economic indicators for the United States, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Back to before or protracted pain ahead? (Wellington Management, Jul 2020)

Wellington presents an overview of the current state of markets, a scenario analysis outlining three potential paths forward, and path-relevant recommendations for asset allocators.