Fixed Income Update: August 2020

Q3 2020 Fixed Income Outlook

Though spreads have tightened materially in fixed income markets since the apex of the coronavirus pandemic, the dislocation within the bond market is far from entirely corrected. Meanwhile, flat curves and low yields in developed markets may spur some investors to look towards emerging market economies, or to question the very role of bonds within multi-asset portfolios.

This selection of fixed income papers contains some quarterly outlooks, as well as insight into other important topics for fixed income investors such an analysis of safe haven assets, a look back at various instances of yield curve control measures, and an economist's view of recent inflation data.   

Central Bank Emergency Measures Obscure Bond Market Risk (Manulife IM, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Manulife Investment Management's overview of the fixed income landscape looks at the flatness of the U.S. treasury curve, fallen angel risk and the benefits of flexibility in active allocations.

Conviction Edges up for Emerging-Market Credit (Eaton Vance, Aug 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

How has the COVID-19 epidemic affected the EM debt market? Eaton Vance Portfolio Manager Brad Godfrey, CFA, fields questions on the EM outlook, which risk factors to focus upon and where opportunities may lie.

COVID-19 and the Private Debt Markets (Franklin Templeton, Aug 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Benefit Street Partners takes a look at the private credit markets during the coronavirus epidemic, including available credit facilities, corporate fundamentals and various relief measures.

Public Fixed Income Commentary: Q2 2020 (Metlife IM, Aug 2020)

MetLife Investment Management reviews bond market activity during the second quarter of 2020, including sector-specific performance, new issuance and spread tightening.

COVID-19 Credit Investing: New Goldilocks scenario? (Federated Hermes, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Credit markets are currently in a unique position, trapped between negative market fundamentals (and instability) and a host of liquidity (and support) that has been injected into markets by central banks.

Global Debt Outlook Q3 2020 (Invesco, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Invesco discusses liquidity and risk premia in fixed income markets, reasons why term premia are rising in emerging market economies and other aspects of the outlook for global bond markets in Q3.

The Shifting Role of Bonds (State Street, Jul 2020)

Will bonds continue to hold value as a diversifier within multi-asset portfolios? This State Street paper argues that over the next five years, they will.

Slow, volatile, spread improvement (PineBridge Investments, Jul 2020)

PineBridge Investments expects continued spread tightening during H2 2020. This credit outlook looks at the macroeconomic picture in the U.S. and how fixed income sectors are affected by it.

Where to Put Cash to Work When Rates Go Negative (Aviva Investors, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies

Aviva Investors looks at the risk of negative rates in the U.S. and the UK, noting lessons learned from Eurozone negative rate debt issuance and how that might impact the present day outlook for short term credit.

From Bond Glut to Bond Drought: Fixed Income Outlook (Janus Henderson, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada

Portfolio Managers from Janus Henderson explain why there will be lower net issuance in H2 2020, given the extreme volume of issuance in H1.

Yield Curve Control Could Signal Loss of Central Bank Control (NN IP, Jul 2020)

NN IP's Senior Economist looks at the use of yield curve controls by central banks, including an examination of mid-20th century U.S. policy and yield curve controls in Japan.

Fixed Income Outlook Q3 (LGIM, Jul 2020)

For compliance reasons, this paper is NOT accessible in the United States and Canada

LGIM's Q3 2020 Credit Outlook takes stock of several concerns highlighted during the Q1 turmoil, highlights the impact of various economic recovery scenarios and covers the current outlook for credit markets.

The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Safe Haven Assets (VoxEU, 2020)

How has the nature of safe haven assets changed over the past 10 years and how have these assets performed during COVID-19 versus during the GFC?

A Different Way of Thinking About Inflation Data (Tim Duy, Aug 2020)

Economist Tim Duy takes a new look at recent inflation data in the United States.